How Global Events are Affecting Coffee Prices w/ Raihaan Esat, International Coffee Traders - EP267

Is free trade always good for workers? Gene Tunny explores the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, which shows how trade can lower wages for some while benefiting others. He discusses key economic insights from Wolfgang Stolper and Paul Samuelson, real-world historical examples, and the implications for today’s global trade debates. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected] for EP272Introduction (0:00)Explanation of Comparative Advantage and Free Trade (1:50)Background on Wolfgang Stolper and Paul Samuelson (5:50)The Heckscher-Ohlin Model and Indirect Factor Arbitrage (16:37)Stolper-Samuelson Theorem and Its Implications (26:35)Empirical Evidence and Historical Applications (31:53)Conclusion and Future Directions (32:19)TakeawaysFree Trade Creates Winners and Losers – The Stolper-Samuelson theorem predicts that free trade benefits the owners of a country’s relatively abundant factors (e.g., capitalists in capital-rich countries) but can harm the owners of relatively scarce factors (e.g., workers in industrialised economies).Economic Theory Still Favors Free Trade Overall – While trade can hurt specific groups, economists argue that overall national income rises, making it possible (though not always politically feasible) to compensate the losers.Historical Evidence Supports the Underlying Theory – Examples from 19th-century trade patterns show factor price convergence, with land rents rising in the U.S. while falling in Britain due to increased trade.Trade Policy Shapes Political Alliances – Farmers in land-rich nations like Australia and the USA often supported free trade, while industrial workers in capital-rich nations tended to favor protectionism.Links relevant to the conversationThe previous episode with Ian Fletcher:https://economicsexplored.com/2025/01/21/industrial-policy-vs-free-trade-w-ian-fletcher-coalition-for-a-prosperous-america-ep271/Stolper and Samuelson’s 1941 paper “Protection and Real Wages”:https://academic.oup.com/restud/article-abstract/9/1/58/1588589William Bernstein’s book “A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World”:https://www.amazon.com.au/Splendid-Exchange-Trade-Shaped-World/dp/0802144160Roger Backhouse’s book “Founder of Modern Economics: Paul A. Samuelson: Volume 1: Becoming Samuelson, 1915-1948”:https://www.amazon.com.au/Founder-Modern-Economics-Samuelson-1915-1948/dp/0190664096Edward Leamer’s paper on the Hecksher-Ohlin model in theory and practice:https://ies.princeton.edu/pdf/S77.pdfLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Ian Fletcher, co-author of Industrial Policy for the United States, published by Cambridge University Press, joins the show to argue that free trade does not always serve national interests. Fletcher defines industrial policy as government intervention to support better industries, emphasizing that some industries are inherently more valuable. He highlights successful industrial policies in Japan, Korea, and Germany. Fletcher also discusses the role of tariffs in protecting domestic industries, using the example of U.S. electric vehicle tariffs on Chinese imports.If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected] this episode’s guest: Ian FletcherIan Fletcher is an Advisory Board Member for Coalition for a Prosperous America. He is the author of Free Trade Doesn't Work (2010) and a co-author of The Conservative Case Against Free Trade. He was Senior Economist at the Coalition for a Prosperous America and a Research Fellow at the US Business and Industry Council. He was educated at Columbia and Chicago.Timestamps for EP271Introduction (0:00)Defining Industrial Policy (3:31)Ian Fletcher's Journey into Industrial Policy (6:48)Better Industries and Manufacturing (11:27)Arguments Against Free Trade (18:10)Case Studies and Successes of Industrial Policy (28:07)Tariffs and Modern Industrial Policy (48:21)Taiwan's Success Story (51:46)Conclusion and Final Thoughts (53:51)TakeawaysIndustrial Policy Defined: Industrial policy focuses on nurturing high-value industries that provide higher wages and foster innovation.Free Trade Critique: While free trade reduces consumer costs, it can lead to job losses, regional economic disparities, and reliance on foreign manufacturing.Global Lessons: Successful industrial policies in countries like Taiwan and Germany show strategic government intervention can be successful in some instances, while failures in the UK and India underscore the risks of mismanagement.Technology Pipeline: Ian Fletcher argues that a robust pipeline connecting scientific research to commercialization is critical for maintaining competitiveness in manufacturing and innovation.Links relevant to the conversationIan’s book “Industrial Policy for the United States: Winning the Competition for Good Jobs and High-Value Industries”:https://www.amazon.com.au/Industrial-Policy-United-States-Competition/dp/1009243071Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Donald Chew discusses the evolution of corporate finance, emphasizing the shift from old-fashioned corporate finance, which focused on steady earnings growth, to modern corporate finance, which aims for high returns on capital. He highlights the decline of conglomerates in the 1970s and the rise of private equity. Despite criticism, Chew argues that modern corporate finance has been a success story, citing the doubling of U.S. public company market capitalization in the 1980s and the significant correlation of R&D and selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) expenses with corporate value. He also addresses the financial crisis, arguing it was due to mispriced mortgages and government policies, not market inefficiencies.  Donald Chew is the founding editor of the Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, and joins show host Gene Tunny to discuss his latest book, The Making of Modern Corporate Finance, published by Columbia University Press.If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected] this episode’s guest: Donald ChewDon Chew is the founding editor and Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Applied Corporate Finance (JACF), a publication he started almost 30 years ago. He has published over ten books on corporate finance, including The New Corporate Finance: Where Theory Meets Practice and The Revolution in Corporate Finance (with Joel Stern), which are both widely used in business schools throughout the United States and Europe. Don has both a Ph.D. in English and an MBA in finance from the University of Rochester.Timestamps for EP270Introduction (0:00)The Decline of Conglomerates and the Rise of Modern Corporate Finance (5:58)The Role of Private Equity and Corporate Governance (14:25)The Impact of Modern Corporate Finance on Corporate Value (15:03)The Future of Corporate Finance and Productivity Measurement (16:37)The Role of Corporate Finance in Economic Growth (19:27)The Critique of Modern Corporate Finance and Corporate Social Responsibility (27:26)The Financial Crisis and the Role of Government Policy (35:40)The Future of Corporate Finance and the Role of Private Equity (43:21)TakeawaysModern Corporate Finance Principles: The shift from prioritizing steady earnings growth to maximizing long-term firm value has reshaped corporate strategies globally.The Importance of R&D: Increases in R&D and SG&A spending are now critical indicators of corporate value and long-term success, according to Don Chew.Private Equity’s Role: Private equity has transformed underperforming companies, streamlining operations and reallocating capital for growth.The Evolution of Corporate Governance: Shareholder activism has replaced hostile takeovers as the primary tool for enforcing corporate accountability.ESG and Value Creation: Enlightened value maximization is the idea that corporations can address societal concerns while enhancing long-term profitability.Links relevant to the conversationDon Chew’s new book The Making of Modern Corporate Finance:https://www.amazon.com.au/Making-Modern-Corporate-Finance-History/dp/0231211104Econometric study of benefits to consumers of Wal-Mart:https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jae.994Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Gene Tunny and Darren Brady Nelson discuss the economic legacy of President Jimmy Carter, highlighting his deregulation efforts, particularly in aviation, which led to increased competition and significant cost savings. They also touch on Carter’s appointment of Paul Volcker as Federal Reserve Chairman, credited with fighting inflation. The conversation shifts to the America Fest conference in Phoenix, where key speakers included Charlie Kirk, Tucker Carlson, and Glenn Beck. They discuss the tensions within the MAGA movement, particularly around immigration policies. Lastly, they explore the intersection of Christian economics and competition, emphasizing its ethical foundations and the potential for a moral case for free markets.If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected] for EP269President Jimmy Carter's Legacy and Deregulation (0:00)Carter's Economic Policies and Personal Anecdotes (5:16)America Fest Conference in Phoenix (14:36)Trump’s Speech and MAGA Movement Dynamics (27:46)Christian Economics and Competition (36:34)Darren's Critique of Mainstream Economics and Antitrust Regulation (51:22)Regulatory Challenges and Natural Monopolies (55:55)Final Thoughts and Future Directions (59:26)TakeawaysJimmy Carter’s Deregulation Impact: Carter’s policies in aviation, trucking, and beer production revolutionized U.S. markets, creating long-lasting consumer benefits.MAGA’s Immigration Debate: Tensions exist between Bannon's nationalist stance and Musk's globalist vision for high-skilled immigration policies.The Role of Competition: Darren highlighted the economic and ethical importance of competition, criticizing overreach in antitrust regulations.Links relevant to the conversationMises Institute article “Jimmy Carter’s Legacy Is Much More than Good Deeds Done in His Later Years”:https://mises.org/mises-wire/jimmy-carters-legacy-much-more-good-deeds-done-his-later-yearsThe previous episode with Darren:https://economicsexplored.com/2024/11/10/trump-2-0-w-top-wisconsin-door-knocker-economist-darren-brady-nelson-ep261/Great Reset discussion with Darren from 2020:https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/the-great-resetLarry Reed, President Emeritus of FEE, speaking about the Parable of the Vineyard Workers:https://economicsexplored.com/2022/02/05/price-controls-to-fight-inflation-a-bad-idea-infrastructure-lessons-from-potus-21-ep125/Darren’s articles in Concurrences on competition and antitrust (paywalled, alas):https://www.concurrences.com/en/page/recherche/?recherche=darren+nelson#Alfred Kahn’s Economics of Regulation:https://www.amazon.com.au/Economics-Regulation-Principles-Institutions/dp/0262610523Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Show host Gene Tunny discusses the ineffectiveness of the U.S. debt ceiling, citing its frequent increases and the political grandstanding it entails. He notes that since 1960, Congress has amended the debt limit 78 times. Tunny argues that the debt ceiling does not enforce fiscal discipline and highlights the need for better fiscal rules, such as the Swiss Debt Brake or the Taxpayer Bill of Rights. He also shares his experience with Australia's debt ceiling during the late 2000s financial crisis. Tunny concludes that Trump's criticism of the debt ceiling is justified.If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected] for EP268US Debt Ceiling Overview (0:00)Historical Context and Modern Monetary Theory (4:09)Ineffectiveness of the Debt Ceiling (7:07)Australian Experience with the Debt Ceiling (13:00)Conclusion and Alternative Fiscal Rules (24:49)TakeawaysDebt Ceilings Are Ineffective: The US debt ceiling fails to control spending or debt accumulation, as it is consistently raised to avoid financial crises.Alternative Fiscal Rules: Spending caps or frameworks like Switzerland’s debt brake are more effective at managing fiscal discipline than nominal debt ceilings.Political Grandstanding: The debt ceiling often serves as a stage for political drama rather than meaningful fiscal reform.Modern Monetary Theory Critique: Printing money to avoid debt constraints, as proposed by some MMT advocates, risks inflation and economic instability.Lessons from Australia: Australia abolished its debt ceiling a decade ago after recognizing its downsides, offering a model for US fiscal policy reform.Links relevant to the conversationUseful information on the US debt and deficit from the US Treasury:https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-markets-financial-institutions-and-fiscal-service/debt-limit (discusses how many times the debt ceiling has been amended)https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/ (contains the spending, revenue, and deficit figures that Gene mentions)Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Coffee prices have surged dramatically over the past year, with green coffee increasing by 78%. In this episode, International Coffee Traders GM Raihaan Esat joins hosts Gene Tunny and Tim Hughes to explore the key drivers behind this spike, including harvest shortages, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical factors. Discover why your morning brew may soon cost more and how the coffee industry is navigating these challenges.If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected] our guest: Raihaan Esat, General Manager, International Coffee TradersRaihaan Esat is a passionate and seasoned coffee professional with extensive experience across the coffee industry. From working in bustling espresso bars and competing at the highest levels of barista competitions to managing roasteries and developing quality control systems, Raihaan has cultivated a deep understanding of every facet of coffee craftsmanship.As General Manager of International Coffee Traders (ICT), a green coffee sales business, Raihaan connects both commercial and home roasters with premium green beans and equipment, sharing his love for exceptional coffee. Inspired by mentors like Phillip Di Bella and a history of innovation, Raihaan is also spearheading coffee events at The Coffee Commune, fostering a thriving community of coffee enthusiasts. Dedicated to excellence and driven by a lifelong passion, Raihaan continues to inspire others through mentorship, entrepreneurship, and a relentless pursuit of the perfect cup.Source: https://www.roastmagazine.com/roastsummit/events/raihann-esatTimestamps for EP267Coffee Market Overview and Initial Discussion (0:00)Factors Contributing to Coffee Price Increases (7:36)Quality Concerns and Market Dynamics (19:41)Consumer Behavior and Market Volatility (26:44)Impact on Coffee Shops and Consumers (47:07)Geopolitical and Weather Impact on Coffee Prices (54:20)TakeawaysGreen Coffee Prices Surge: Over the past 12 months, green coffee prices have increased by 78%, impacting every part of the supply chain.Major Producers Facing Challenges: Brazil and Vietnam, responsible for a large share of global coffee production, are experiencing lower yields due to weather conditions and harvest quality issues.Geopolitical Factors: Disruptions in trade routes, such as those caused by Middle East conflicts, have further strained the coffee supply chain, driving up costs.Changing Consumer Expectations: As prices rise, consumers may need to reconsider what they expect for a $5 cup of coffee and the value they receive in return.Sustainability of Cafes: For cafes to survive, they need to adjust their pricing to reflect increasing costs in labor, rent, and coffee supplies.Links relevant to the conversationOur previous conversation with Raihaan, “The Future of Coffee: Climate Change & Rising Prices w/ Raihaan Esat, International Coffee Traders  – EP217”:https://economicsexplored.com/2023/12/06/the-future-of-coffee-climate-change-rising-prices-w-raihaan-esat-international-coffee-traders-ep217/Raihaan’s slide explaining factors driving up coffee prices:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JAhmCl_TmfSoWRkh9wF9fDFU395mPnyL/view?usp=sharingChart of the green coffee price:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qnX28VagJ3FtD40JntMujADsNKI-NhBs/view?usp=sharingInternational Coffee Traders at the Coffee Commune:https://www.coffeecommune.com.au/international-coffee-traders/ABC News article “Coffee prices hit record high after bad weather”:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-11/coffee-prices-hit-record-high-after-bad-weather/104711708Greensquare coffee roaster app:https://www.greensquare.co/Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

This episode explores the economic implications of Trump’s re-election, France’s political deadlock under Macron, and the future of global capitalism. Jean-Baptiste Wautier, a private equity investor and World Economic Forum speaker, shares insights on trade wars and deficits. He argues that short-term profit motives undermine the global capitalist system. Jean-Baptiste also discusses AI's transformative potential. Please note this episode was recorded on 11 December 2024, before French President Macron appointed François Bayrou as the new PM.  If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected] for EP266Introduction (0:00)Economic Implications of Trump's Re-Election (2:55)Potential Global Trade War (5:50)Global Trade and Economic Interdependence (8:29)Challenges Facing France and the Fifth Republic (13:55)Risks to the Eurozone (20:07)Flaws in Global Capitalism and Potential Solutions (27:34)Examples of Enlightened Capitalism (33:01)The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Jobs (39:59)Final Thoughts and Future Directions (44:50)TakeawaysTrump’s Second Term Risks: His proposed tax cuts and tariffs could reignite inflation and exacerbate the US federal deficit, leading to global economic consequences.France’s Political Instability: Macron’s government faces gridlock, which could potentially destabilize the Eurozone due to France’s growing budget deficit and political deadlock.Global Trade War Unlikely: Despite harsh rhetoric, economic interdependence makes a full-scale global trade war improbable, in Jean-Baptiste’s view.Capitalism’s Short-Term Focus: Jean-Baptiste argues the current capitalist model prioritizes short-term profits over long-term sustainability, causing inefficiencies and negative externalities like mental health crises and economic inequality.The Role of AI: AI is transforming industries at an unprecedented speed, raising concerns about job displacement and the need for economic adjustments, possibly extending to UBI (Universal Basic Income), depending on the scale of the displacement.Links relevant to the conversationJean-Baptiste Wautier’s website:https://wautier.co.uk/EXPLAINER: Why is natural gas still flowing from Russia to Europe across Ukraine?https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-natural-gas-f9f00df7195d01404f8cb2a43152a8b1Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Host Gene Tunny discusses significant economic issues from the year. He features clips from interviews with experts on various topics, including the economic consequences of Donald Trump's re-election, the U.S. budget deficit, the gender pay gap, and environmental impact. President Reagan’s budget director David Stockman criticizes Trump’s policies for being anti-capitalist, citing a $8 trillion increase in public debt. Fiscal policy wonk Dan Mitchell argues that higher taxes are not the solution to the U.S. budget deficit, as spending is the primary issue. Leonora Risse (Assoc. Prof., University of Canberra) explains the concept of "greedy jobs" contributing to the gender pay gap. Marion Tupy of the Cato Institute discusses the long-term decline in commodity prices, and Daniel Lawse of Verdis Group emphasizes the need for sustainable, long-term thinking in business and policy. Daniel also reflects on the modest lifestyle of Warren Buffett, another Omaha resident. John August discusses the impact of immigration on Australia's housing crisis.If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected] for EP265Introduction (0:00)David Stockman (6:20)Dan Mitchell (11:20)Leonora Risse (23:50)Marian Tupy (32:15)Daniel Lawse (41:49)John August (48:06)Links relevant to the conversationEpisodes featuring the clips:https://economicsexplored.com/2024/01/28/reagans-budget-boss-david-stockman-on-trumps-economic-policies-ep224/https://economicsexplored.com/2024/04/17/is-uncle-sam-running-a-ponzi-scheme-with-the-national-debt-w-dr-dan-mitchell-ep235/https://economicsexplored.com/2024/03/10/the-gender-pay-debate-understanding-the-factors-behind-the-gap-w-dr-leonora-risse-ep230/https://economicsexplored.com/2024/10/16/abundance-mindset-exploring-the-super-abundance-thesis-w-marian-tupy-cato-institute-ep258/https://economicsexplored.com/2024/06/01/helping-seattle-aquarium-others-go-to-net-zero-and-beyond-w-daniel-lawse-verdis-group-ep242/https://economicsexplored.com/2024/04/17/housing-crisis-and-immigration-australias-tough-choices-w-john-august-ep236/Leonora’s review of Career and Family: Women's Century-Long Journey toward Equity, by Claudia Goldinhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1475-4932.12716?domain=author&token=UPATKK2WTIAEZ49UMRMVPrinciple of Charity podcast episodes on degrowth:https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/can-degrowth-save-the-planet/id1571868650?i=1000674757240https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/can-degrowth-save-the-planet-pt-2-on-the-couch/id1571868650?i=1000675655623Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Professor Amar Bhidé of Columbia University discusses his new book “Uncertainty and Enterprise”, published by Oxford University Press. It emphasizes the limitations of standard economic models that rely on probability distributions. He argues that entrepreneurship involves dealing with unique, non-quantifiable uncertainties, which require imagination and narrative skills. Bhide critiques the over-reliance on incentives and statistical analysis, advocating for a more imaginative and contextual approach. He highlights the importance of routines and the need for accountability in expert decision-making, particularly in areas like public health and monetary policy. Bhide also discusses the role of narratives in business success and the challenges posed by tech monopolies.If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected] this episode’s guest Professor Amar BhidéProfessor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University Irving Medical CenterBhidé has researched and taught about innovation, entrepreneurship, and finance for over three decades. He now focuses on teaching, developing, and disseminating case histories of transformational technological advances.A member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a founding member of the Center on Capitalism and Society at Columbia – and a founding editor of Capitalism and Society, Bhide is the author of the forthcoming book Uncertainty, Judgment, and Enterprise (Oxford). His earlier books include A Call for Judgment: Sensible Finance for a Dynamic Economy (Oxford, 2010), The Venturesome Economy: How Innovation Sustains Prosperity in a More Connected World (Princeton, 2008), The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses (Oxford, 2000) and Of Politics and Economic Reality (Basic Books, 1984). Starting in the early 1980s, he has written numerous articles for the Harvard Business Review, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and The Financial Times. He has periodically appeared on Bloomberg TV and CNBC.Bhidé was previously the Lawrence Glaubinger Professor of Business at Columbia University and the Thomas Schmidheiny Professor of Business at Tufts University. He has also taught at Harvard Business School (as an Assistant, Associate, and Visiting Professor)and at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business.His professional experience includes directorship of a FTSE 100 company. In the 1980s, Bhidé was a Senior Engagement Manager at McKinsey & Company, a Proprietary Trader at E.F. Hutton, and served on the Brady Commission staff, investigating the 1987 stock market crash.Bhidé earned a DBA and MBA from Harvard Business School with High Distinction and a B. Tech from the Indian Institute of Technology (Bombay).LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amar-bhide-8202ba10/Timestamps for EP264Uncertainty in Economic Theory and Practice (0:00)The Role of Imagination in Economic Decision-Making (6:44)Narrative and Storytelling in Entrepreneurship (15:01)The Impact of Narratives on Markets and Investment (25:29)Challenges of Regulating Tech Monopolies (32:34)Accountability and Expertise in Governance (41:04)Building Narrative Skills for Entrepreneurs (48:31)Final Thoughts (52:14)TakeawaysThe Distinction Between Risk and Uncertainty: Frank Knight’s distinction highlights that risk is quantifiable, but uncertainty involves unknowns, requiring judgment and imagination.The Importance of Narrative in Business: Entrepreneurs use storytelling to make ventures plausible to investors and stakeholders, even when data is incomplete or speculative.Imagination is Key to Profit: Success in entrepreneurship often depends on the ability to imagine scenarios, adapt to setbacks, and create compelling business models.Challenges of Accountability in Modern Institutions: Bhide critiques the lack of accountability among experts in fields like public health and monetary policy, advocating for more robust governance structures.The Role of Plausibility in Decision-Making: Investors and entrepreneurs alike rely on plausible, if not always precise, projections to guide business choices.Links relevant to the conversationAmar’s new book Uncertainty and Enterprise:https://www.amazon.com.au/Uncertainty-Enterprise-Venturing-Beyond-Known/dp/0197688357/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=Corralling the Info-Monopolists (Project Syndicate Op-ed):https://sites.tufts.edu/amarbhide/2018/05/14/corralling-the-info-monopolists-project-syndicate-op-ed/Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Dr Vuk Vukovic, economist and founder of Oraclum Capital, joins Gene Tunny to discuss elite networks, their economic impact, and the future of democracy. Delving into his research, Dr Vukovic examines how political connections affect income inequality and corporate success. He shares his innovative Bayesian approach to predicting financial and political trends, offering a glimpse into his hedge fund’s methods. The episode also tackles the dangers of centralized political power and explores solutions for empowering communities and fostering trust in democratic institutions. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at [email protected] this episode’s guest Dr Vuk VukovicIn brief: an academic and practitioner​Academic...Oxford PhD, LSE Masters, Harvard, Berkeley5-year university teaching experiencePublished in top journals, published a book (@Oxford University Press) => Elite NetworksExpert member of Parliament committeePractitioner...Running a hedge fund in NYC, Oraclum Capital (ORCA), based on our scientific innovation in network theory Before that, founded two companies: market research consultancy & boutique rating agencyMacro-based trader & investor for over 10 years (learning by doing: lots of mistakes, lots of helpful lessons).Timestamps0:00 - Gene introduces Vuk and his work on elite networks and Bayesian analysis3:54 - Vuk explains how they use social network analysis to identify "super forecasters"7:47 - Vuk discusses the performance of his hedge fund Oraclum Capital9:29 - Vuk goes into more detail on their social network survey approach12:54 - Gene and Vuk discuss Vuk’s thesis on how political connections contribute to inequality20:21 - Discussion of Lina Khan and potential risks of Trump-Musk connections25:02 - Vuk discusses how corruption and concentrated power can lead to poor economic outcomes33:30 - Vuk outlines recommendations for decentralizing political power and re-empowering citizens39:13 - Vuk's final thoughts on the role of elites and the need for system design to channel their influence positivelyTakeawaysElite Networks Drive Inequality: Dr Vukovic’s research shows that corporate executives with political connections earn significantly higher salaries, fueling income inequality.Bayesian Analysis Enhances Forecasting: Dr Vukovic argues his approach improves financial and political predictions by weighting opinions based on network diversity and historical accuracy.Centralization vs. Decentralization: Dr. Vukovic argues for reducing centralized political power to lower inequality and enhance democratic processes.Democracy’s Resilience: While acknowledging current challenges, Dr Vukovic remains optimistic about democracy’s ability to adapt through trial and error.Links relevant to the conversationInfo on Dr Vuk Vukovic:https://www.vukvukovic.org/Elite Networks book:https://www.amazon.com.au/Elite-Networks-Political-Economy-Inequality/dp/0197774237Oraclum Capital:https://oraclumcapital.com/Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.