
This week brings a little more of Outflank Dugin, Don’t Rebut, and a bit of the principles of Infolklore. It also brings the end of Future russia, Real Ukraine. Or, as I now call it, Real Ukraine, future russia, with a small r.
President Zelenskyy is playing a blinder
My view is that President Zelenskyy is playing a blinder, as the English would say. He has been dealt quite a bad hand over the last few weeks. We are going through one of those cycles we have all been through many times before.
He has flushed out Donald and Putler by offering this ceasefire. He knows, of course, it will never be taken up. So it is a safe offer. He also knows that no action he takes, or Ukraine takes, will help get aid from the United States and from Donald. So he models peacefulness and a wish to make a deal. It will not help with America. But it builds capital for after the midterms, and for the long term.
I see him trolling America, Donald and russia along. He knows well what Donald and the people around him do not seem to understand, or do not care to, because of whatever compromise is going on. The more you offer peace to the russians, the more they think you are weak. That goes for Donald too. So they think Ukraine and America are very weak. Constitutionally, peace is almost impossible for them. Remember Lavrov’s and Peskov’s words this week: no, we will not take a break. So it is very easy to troll the russians. Reflexive control works very well on this front.
I focus on the front. What may be happening east of the Donets River is a very important milestone in Ukraine’s battlefield success. The mid-range strikes go on. There are these Academy Award-winning strikes on the data centres, and now Sberbank’s, which is a beautiful hit.
When I was a diplomat in Dnipro, I went to see the board of PrivatBank when the state took it over. We talked about the vulnerability of data centres. It never crossed my mind, as I sat in that room with the then CEO of PrivatBank, that Ukraine would one day destroy Sberbank’s new data centre. Let’s hope to see more of those. That is what I focus on, rather than all the Starlink noise.
Real and future russia
Real and future russia is my new analytical lens. I use it to look at any national or nationalist movement. Such a movement may define itself by looking backwards. But it must mainly define itself by looking forwards.
In Ukraine’s case that means building a modern European state without corruption, along the lines the European Union models. It means a state brilliant at nurturing its children’s destinies, educating them properly, and turning out critically minded humans. It means looking away from the Soviet legacy.
That is a movement all countries must go through, in my humble opinion, in varying degrees and at various times.
Future russia, real russia, will be the russia around St Petersburg and Moscow, with a few forests around them and a population of perhaps 20 million. It has a good chance to be a good state. It has good universities, museums and human capital. It will have to pay its debts, as will all the other former Ruschist Federation countries.
But whenever we hear any russian, with a small r, speak about the past, mining grievance, Peter the Great, any of that nonsense, past glories in any disguise, we know it is old russia speaking. Historical russia. That person must be given no power and no entitlement to control of the information space or of economic resources. That should be a condition of any economic aid from the European Union, China or any other great power.
Talking about history and the past is a luxury. A country and a national culture can afford it when they are not murdering people by the million in pursuit of a historical goal that was untrue and never existed, instead of building a modern nation state.
An apparent contradiction
This is where I ended a couple of weeks ago. There may seem to be a contradiction here.
My main intellectual project, as many of you know, is to re-centre Ukraine in the story of humanity over the past 6,000 years: of Indo-European linguistic, cultural, religious and human development. Yet I also hold an absolute ban on entertaining any historical russia. The Bolshoi, the ballet, Dostoevsky, Tolstoy, all of that imperialist nonsense, however wonderful some of the art is, and however derivative of Western European art in many cases.
Future russia is asked to leave its history alone and live on the map, within the borders it ends up with after its withdrawal from 100% of Ukraine. So why should Ukraine not do the same?
Because re-centring Ukraine is not a claim on anyone’s land. It is a claim on our attention. The difference between the two is the difference between the historical lens and the real lens.
Identity is wholly a function of stories
The narrow version of the project affords Ukraine what every sovereign culture already has.
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In 1777 Johann Gottfried Herder asked where Germany’s Shakespeare was. As I have written, “The modern nation state was created after Herder’s 1777 plea to unite the 10 German tribes behind a set of stories (folklore or more accurately folksongs) typifying Germanness. The Brothers Grimm, Goethe and later Wagner answered that call. And 90 years later the first unified German state was created.”
Identity is wholly a function of stories. Some of you will remember that I came to this realisation in eastern Ukraine. russia understands it too. That is why it is so brilliant at Disinfolklore, and why Donald is. Disinfolklore also creates identity, by telling mean stories and injecting meanness into our minds. It creates just as strong a sense of identity as the positive stories do.
Think of Greece. We think of Athens and ancient Athens. But the first capital of modern Greece was not Athens. Choosing Athens was a way to attach some of that ancientness to the modern state of Greece, a wholly new, invented country, like Germany, like Switzerland, like Belgium.
And this week we saw Rubio, the complete ingénue, in front of the Acropolis, talking about Western civilisation, or values he learned as an undergraduate, probably when Huntington was all the rage. It was such an embarrassment.
Huntington took a whole set of Indo-European cultures and chose Islam as his main dividing line. Given what I have looked into of ancient Iran, and since it was ancient Iranian scholars who largely systematised Islam, I see Islam as an Indo-European religion, as I see Christianity. By making their war in Iran, they are doing what Huntington asked of them. But for him to stand before the Acropolis banging on about this is just so embarrassing.
If you saw any of his speech, he is probably the worst orator ever. He has absolutely no sense of pace, for such a portentous speech meant to lead into his presidential ambitions. That is, if he is not in The Hague, or in prison, guilty of w…
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