The Emerging Risk Time Zone

Let's explore two foundational frameworks: First Principles, a bottom-up reductionist approach to strip problems down to fundamental truths and audit obsolete rules of thumb; and Systems Thinking, a holistic approach designed to capture dynamic feedback loops, hidden assumptions, and non-linear tipping points in complex environments. Learn how to diagnose which thinking approach to apply, when to transition from component analysis to systemic interaction, and how to translate complex causal dynamics into clear, actionable executive insights.

The real challenge is determining whether our prompting habits are designed for rigorous oversight or merely built on misplaced trust in autonomous reasoning. When we prompt large language models, we are taught to ask for an answer and trust its chain of thought. Yet research demonstrates that models generate conclusions first, rationalizing an explanation only after the fact. In high-stakes technical environments, relying on post-hoc justifications creates an unmonitored point of failure.  How to get more accurate, auditable answers from AI without burning through your compute budget on brute-force agents.

Prepare to be helpful and create an expectation of an activist CRO during a crisis. The classic Three Lines of Defense model was designed for fair weather. But when a problem hits, adhering strictly to Second Line aloof independence is often the worst move a CRO can make for the company and personally.

Leverage boosts your returns in a boom, but it acts as a threat multiplier the moment markets turn. Let's talk about how to de-risk before the margin call. Here is our 4-part formula that exposes your company's hidden insolvency risks before a crisis hits. 

Lots of things seem easy during a Boom.  But risk management is not one of those.  Dave and Max discuss those difficulties and provide some suggestions for how a CRO can navigate doing their job when risk seems to be minimal to most everyone.  This is Podcast 89 in the Crossing Thin Ice series.  Enjoy.  

Are You Ready for the Next Unknown Known? Relying on rules of thumb and past trends is a fast track to getting blindsided. From climate feedback loops to high-velocity risks, here is why traditional modeling fails in an unpredictable world—and how first-principles thinking can keep you ahead.

Successful ERM implementations develop over time through iterative refinement, building organizational buy-in before layering on complex modeling structures. Here is Part 2 of "Implementing ERM".   In part 1, we covered the foundational core: balancing risk exploitation with downside protection, navigating the five phases of the risk control cycle, and applying four primary measurement methodologies to quantify exposure. Now, in Part 2, we’re moving from operations to Strategy. We will be diving into setting actionable risk appetites and tolerances, communicating effectively with senior leadership, and positioning the CRO as a strategic business partner rather than 'Doctor No'.

Regular ERM is one of the six Time Zones of ERM.  This is part 1 of our discussion of regular ERM.  We include discussion of Exploiting Risk by focusing on both upside and downside of risk.  The three Levels of ERM.  The Risk Control Cycle. Risk Prioritization.  Emerging Risk and the role of human foresight.  And finish up with discussion of four Risk Measurement techniques.  Part 2 will land next month.  

History has a way of creeping back when we assume the battle is already won. In this our 85th episode, we confront an immediate, present-day vulnerability to TB that most professionals believe belongs safely in the textbooks of the past. Current risk frameworks are structurally blind to slow-moving, invisible threats that erode infrastructure from the inside out. TB has been quietly adapting beneath the surface of modern economic and social systems while the world looks the other way. Tune in to find out why this emerging risk requires a radical, immediate shift in perspective.

I used to think a great ERM program just meant strict discipline. Now I know the best CROs have an ERM playbook with multiple sets of plays and sometimes they are calling audibles, changing the ERM play at the last moment.  Most companies run their business using a single ERM playbook—until a crisis hits. Today we address 6 distinct "time zones" and explain how you actually need different playbooks for each.