Fed Hawkishness, Nvidia Earnings Implications, and Tokenization Risks

We discuss why the "Fed trade" is back in control of crypto as a stronger dollar and hot PCE inflation push bitcoin below $60K for the first time in nearly two years. We cover why AI and equity earnings keep crowding out speculative crypto demand, and what might finally free up capital for bitcoin. We also discuss how the government's shutdown of Anthropic's Fable model reframes decentralized AI as an "access" story, why Coinbase for Agents makes the AI x crypto thesis more tangible, and how to actually trade bitcoin from here using a variety of powerful indicators.Main sections: (01:05 - 06:21) The return of the Fed trade (06:21 - 20:14) AI, earnings, and the marginal speculative dollar (20:14 - 24:33) Coinbase for Agents and agentic payment rails (24:33 - 37:04) How to trade bitcoin from hereSpeakers: Colin Basco - Quantitative Strategist, Coinbase (X: https://x.com/colin_basco) Austin Arnold - Co-Host of Altcoin Daily (X: https://x.com/AltcoinDaily) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Description: We discuss why this week's macro setup favors caution, as last week's strong jobs report makes the upcoming CPI print critical to the Fed's reaction function. We cover why Bitcoin's institutional bid is being tested, with ETF outflows acting as a double-edged sword and $60K standing out as a key level to hold. We also discuss how AI-assisted discovery of a critical Zcash vulnerability is reshaping how investors price protocol security risk, and what US-regulated perps and options means for Hyperliquid. Main sections: (01:20 - 08:01) Labor, inflation, and the CPI setup (08:01 - 14:02) Bitcoin's institutional bid (14:02 - 19:35) Zcash, AI, and protocol security risk (19:35 - 29:12) Hyperliquid's competition amidst the arrival of US perps & optionsSpeakers: Colin Basco - Quantitative Strategist, Coinbase (X: https://x.com/colin_basco) Greg Sutton - Head of Prime Trading, Coinbase Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We discuss why oil remains the key macro pressure point for crypto as Iran-conflict escalation keeps inflation risk, the dollar, and higher-for-longer Fed expectations in focus. We cover why bitcoin’s setup has weakened below $70K, with ETF outflows, weak trend signals, softer holder profitability, and exchange inflows all pointing to a more fragile market. We also discuss Coinbase bringing regulated access to crypto options and perpetual futures to the US, why that could be a major institutional market structure unlock, and why AI continues to support equities even as crypto lags. Main sections: (01:20 - 08:51) Oil, Iran, and stagflation risk (08:51 - 14:21) Bitcoin’s weaker setup (14:21 - 22:18) Crypto options and perps come to the US! (22:18 - 27:37) AI and equity leadership Colin Basco - Quantitative Strategist, Coinbase (X: https://x.com/colin_basco) Josh Pack - Senior Prime Trader, Coinbase Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We cover how the April Fed minutes challenged the one-way cut narrative, why Nvidia’s strong earnings and the broader AI CapEx cycle are supporting equities without necessarily lifting crypto, and how bitcoin has absorbed meaningful ETF outflows without breaking down. We also discuss the latest roadblock for tokenized equities. Main sections (01:25 - 06:50) Fed minutes and rates repricing (06:50 - 13:50) Nvidia earnings implications and equity resilience (13:50 - 19:08) Bitcoin ETF outflows and absorption (19:08 - 24:26) Tokenized equities and regulatory concerns Speakers Colin Basco - Quantitative Strategist, Coinbase (X: https://x.com/colin_basco) Josh Pack - Senior Trader, Prime Trading Desk Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

we sit down with Lark Davis to discuss why hotter inflation data is forcing markets to rethink the Fed’s room to cut, and why that may keep crypto in a more selective regime. We cover whether Bitcoin is really an inflation hedge, why BTC dominance may stay elevated if liquidity remains tight, and how traders are weighing onchain data, technicals, and institutional ETF flows. We also discuss Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade and why better technology still needs to translate into usage and token value capture. We finish by analyzing the new Hyperliquid x Coinbase partnership and why Hyperliquid remains one of crypto’s clearest product-market-fit stories.Main sections: (01:21 - 10:17) Inflation, Fed policy, and Bitcoin dominance (10:17 - 22:21) Bitcoin key trading indicators (22:21 - 29:20) Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade and implications (29:20 - 39:28) Hyperliquid x Coinbase Speakers: Colin Basco – Quantitative Strategist, Coinbase (X: https://x.com/colin_basco) Lark Davis – Host of The Lark Davis Show (X: https://x.com/LarkDavis) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode, we focus on three of the biggest crypto stories of the week: Circle’s Q1 results and ARC token announcement, Bitcoin’s more nuanced setup after strong ETF demand ran into a hotter CPI print, and Ethereum’s increasingly important staking and float dynamics. Main sections (01:21 - 10:17) Circle’s Q1 results & ARC token (10:17 - 19:16) Bitcoin after CPI (19:16 - 23:12) The macro framework for crypto (23:12 - 32:18) Ethereum’s setup Speakers  Colin Basco — Quantitative Strategist (X: https://x.com/colin_basco)  Greg Sutton — Head of Prime Trading Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We connect the week’s biggest macro and crypto stories, from Iran-driven oil volatility and the equities earnings backdrop to bitcoin’s increasingly important test near $80K. We discuss why rising spot ETF inflows and tighter float have made BTC’s rebound more meaningful, but not yet a confirmed regime shift, and why the short-term holder cost basis remains the key level to watch. We also examine the fallout from the Kelp DAO exploit, how AI may increase risk in DeFi, and why prediction markets have evolved from a niche crypto product into a multi-billion-dollar industry driven by sports, geopolitics, and changing user behavior. Main sections: (04:31 - 12:21) The macro setup (12:21 - 20:25) Bitcoin’s rebound and key levels (20:43 - 27:36) DeFi’s security problem and Mythos AI Implications (27:36 - 34:38) Prediction markets Speakers David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: https://x.com/DavidDuong) Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: https://x.com/colin_basco) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this inaugural episode of the Coinbase Advanced podcast, we break down one of the most confusing macro environments in modern history as crypto sentiment snaps back amid Middle East negotiations. The conversation explores the blurring lines between risk-on and risk-off assets, the systemic security threats posed by Anthropic’s new Mythos AI model, and recent DeFi contagion events involving Kelp DAO and Aave. We also dive into the evolution of the "Everything Exchange," examining how the introduction of 24/7 equity perpetuals, commodities trading, and institutional bitcoin accumulation are fundamentally altering the market structure for active traders. (00:00 - 04:38) Coinbase introduces its new monthly series for advanced traders alongside a look at shifting macro sentiment and the SEC’s new podcast. (04:38 - 09:07) Scott Melker discusses the breakdown of traditional "risk-off" assets and why current market conditions are the most confusing in history. (09:07 - 15:02) The team analyzes the security risks of Anthropic’s Mythos AI model and recent DeFi exploits that highlight the danger of "unknown unknowns" in smart contracts. (15:02 - 17:24) Moheeth breaks down Coinbase Advanced data showing a surge in spot volume and a widening base of unique active traders. (17:24 - 21:07) A deep dive into bitcoin accumulation trends, institutional "strong hands" taking over retail supply, and the significance of whale wallet movements. (21:07 - 31:21) The conversation shifts to the growth of derivatives, including USDC open interest rewards and the transition of Coinbase into a full-stack trading venue. (31:21 - 37:32) Scott and Moheeth explore the disruptive potential of 24/7 equity perpetuals and how 100x leverage on everything will gamify global markets. (37:32 - 41:17) The episode concludes with a look at diversifying trade flows into altcoins and commodities like gold and silver as traders seek an edge in volatile markets. Speakers: David Duong, CFA — Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong) Moheeth Alvi — Product Lead, Coinbase Advanced (X: @MoheethR) Scott Melker — The Wolf of Wall Street (X: scottmelker)Additional disclaimer:Listed futures and swaps are offered via Coinbase Financial Markets (“CFM”). CFM is a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) registered with the National Futures Association (NFA), and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Our offerings are available only to US residents. Trading in futures and options involves substantial risks. You should only trade in financial products that you are familiar with and understand the associated risks, and after carefully considering whether such trading is suitable in light of your investment experience, financial position, and investment objectives.Please note, not all products, such as equity perpetual contracts would be available to customers in all jurisdictions. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We unpack why oil remains the key macro lens for understanding markets as renewed Iran diplomacy, elevated crude prices, stronger labor data, and sticky inflation risks continue to shape the Fed backdrop and broader risk sentiment. We discuss why Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient in this environment and how we are thinking about the market in a headline-driven regime where tactical levels matter more than long-term conviction. We also break down why Strategy’s bitcoin purchases may still matter even if they look small in aggregated flow data, particularly through momentum, liquidity, and float absorption. Finally, we explore why Hyperliquid continues to strengthen its case as a weekend macro price discovery venue through oil and precious metals perps, and why Covenant’s exit from Bittensor has become a real near-term sentiment hit for TAO without necessarily invalidating the broader decentralized AI thesis.Main sections (00:41 - 07:43) The macro setup (07:43 - 16:18) Bitcoin, oil, and market structure (16:25 - 27:01) Strategy’s bitcoin buying & implications (27:01 - 29:35) Hyperliquid’s competitive edge (29:35 - 33:06) Bittensor and Covenant's exit Speakers David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: https://x.com/DavidDuong) Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: https://x.com/colin_basco) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We unpack the latest cross asset price action in response to surging oil prices and what elevated energy prices could mean for inflation, the Fed, and broader risk sentiment. We then explore why AI agents may become one of the most important structural themes in crypto, as autonomous software increasingly needs wallets, payments, settlement, and coordination rails to transact at scale. We also discuss Ethereum’s evolving institutional story, including why activity and liquidity may be re-centering around Ethereum L1 as the fee gap versus L2s narrows and upcoming upgrades improve the base layer’s execution capacity. Finally, we look at crypto’s deeper move into household finance through products like crypto-backed mortgages and 401(k) access, and why that could mark an important next phase in the asset class’s institutionalization. Key sections:  (00:00 - 14:07) Iran, oil, and the macro backdrop: why the breakout above $100 in crude oil futures matters, how elevated energy prices are tightening financial conditions, and implications for risk assets. (14:07 - 20:08) Why AI agents matter for crypto: how the narrative has shifted from model training to inference, reasoning, and persistent agents, and why autonomous software may need crypto-native payments, wallets, and settlement rails to function as real economic actors. (20:08 - 27:48) Where value may accrue in the AI-agent stack: foundational rails, coordination layers, and integrity layers, plus how x402, Base, and tokens tied to agent coordination or decentralized intelligence fit into that framework. (27:48 - 37:43) Ethereum’s institutional moment and the L1/L2 narrative shift: why lower mainnet fees and upcoming upgrades may be helping activity, liquidity, stablecoins, and tokenized assets re-center around Ethereum L1. (37:43 - 42:17) Crypto-backed mortgages and 401(k)s: why crypto’s integration into core household financial products could be a meaningful next step for institutional adoption, even if the long-term structure still depends on greater regulatory clarity.Speakers: David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong) Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.