#32 BlackRock CEO: Global Recession Looms if Iran War Continues

Larry Fink, is Chairman and CEO of BlackRock - the world’s largest asset manager, overseeing more than $14 trillion in investments on behalf of governments, pension funds and individual investors globally. He tells BBC Business Editor Simon Jack that oil prices could remain above $100 a barrel for years — and rise to $150 — if the Iranian conflict is not resolved, a scenario he says would trigger a “stark and steep recession”. Higher energy costs would ripple through agriculture, fertiliser, and global supply chains, acting as a regressive tax that disproportionately affects the poorest.Fink calls for “energy pragmatism”, arguing countries should use all available energy sources — from oil and gas to renewables and nuclear — to build resilience. He highlights Europe’s fragmented power systems as a structural weakness, particularly as energy demand rises with the expansion of AI infrastructure.On trade, Fink says globalisation is being recalibrated rather than reversed. Post-war trading systems that favoured certain economies are shifting towards greater symmetry, though he acknowledges tariffs are inflationary.He dismisses comparisons to the 2008 financial crisis, arguing the $2.2 trillion private credit market is transparent, with clearly defined liquidity limits.Artificial intelligence, he says, will be transformational — driving demand for massive infrastructure investment while creating large numbers of skilled blue-collar jobs. Fink argues societies have overemphasised university education and must reassess the value of skilled trades in the AI economy.Presenter: Simon Jack Producer: Olie D'Albertanson & Ollie Smith00:15 Will Bain and Simon Jack set out who BlackRock/Larry Fink is 03:30 Larry Fink joins the podcast - discuss oil price scenarios 12:04 Globalisation and tariff impact 19:07 Are we reliving the Financial Crisis of 2008? 22:53 AI Investment: Bubble or necessity? 30:28 The case for blue-collar careers 32:58 AI, demographics, and the future of taxation

Mark Neale, founder and chief executive of Mountain Warehouse - the outdoor clothing company - joins Will Bain for this episode of Big Boss Interview to discuss how conflict in the Middle East, tariff volatility and UK economic policy are affecting retailers and the wider economy.Disruption to global shipping routes is already pushing up costs for businesses importing goods from Asia. Prior to the latest US/Isarael war against Iran ,attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea had effectively closed the Suez Canal to many freight ships for nearly a year, forcing cargo to travel around the Horn of Africa instead. That detour adds roughly two weeks to delivery times and significantly increases freight costs. Neale says companies have built greater resilience into supply chains since the pandemic, but sustained disruption in from the latest conflict will eventually feed through into higher prices if the situation continues.Trade policy is creating further uncertainty due to the impact of American tariffs. Neale questions what such tariff policies are designed to achieve, arguing that no realistic trade regime is going to bring garment manufacturing back to the United States. He also says they've tried diversify away from Chinese made clothes as a result.The interview also examines the state of the UK economy. Neale argues the country has lost “the best part of a year of growth” because the government repeatedly emphasised how broken parts of the country were — from the NHS to the economy — without setting out a clear positive vision for growth. When the new administration arrived, he says, inflation and interest rates were already beginning to fall and there were early signs of recovery emerging. Neale compares the situation to a new chief executive taking over a struggling company: you acknowledge the problems, but you also need to rally the workforce with a plan.Hiring and labour regulation are another concern. Neale describes the government’s proposed Employment Rights Bill as “the let’s make it more difficult for people to get a job Bill”, warning that additional regulation may make businesses more cautious when recruiting. With around a million people in the UK currently out of work due to long-term sickness, he argues that policies which increase perceived hiring risk could make it harder for people trying to re-enter the workforce to get an opportunity.Competition for jobs is already intense. When Mountain Warehouse opened a new store in Wigan, 493 people applied for just ten roles, including more than 100 applicants for the store manager position alone. Neale says that when employers face such large applicant pools alongside stricter employment rules, they are more likely to choose the safest candidate — potentially shutting out those who most need a chance.Presenter: Will Bain Producer: Olie D'Albertanson Editor: Henry Jones00:00 Sean and Will start the show 01:45 Mark Neale joins BBI 02:28 From rollerblades to Mountain Warehouse 08:17 Freight concerns & Middle East disruption 11:38 Diversifying supply chain away from China 17:44 Government stamping out green shoots of recovery & lost year of growth 25:39 Employment Rights Bill impact & unintended consequences for hiring 29:33 De minimis, ideal high street & long-term confidence

Marco Amitrano, European boss of PwC, joins the Big Boss Interview to discuss the UK economy, artificial intelligence, business confidence and the case for loosening the government’s fiscal rules to unlock infrastructure investment.Amitrano makes a direct appeal to Chancellor Rachel Reeves to reconsider the government’s borrowing limits, arguing that strict fiscal rules risk preventing the investment needed for long-term economic growth. He says the UK faces what has been described to him as a £2 trillion infrastructure gap, spanning transport, digital networks and the energy grid. Relaxing borrowing restrictions, he argues, could allow government to invest alongside business in the technology, talent and infrastructure needed to make the UK globally competitive. Amitrano acknowledges that markets may initially react with higher borrowing costs, but says a transparent plan showing how spending would drive growth could reassure bond investors.Artificial intelligence is already reshaping the professional services sector, with Amitrano revealing that more than 80% of chief executives globally are making material investments in AI, and around 60% now see it as critical to their organisation’s survival. He discusses how the technology is transforming how businesses operate, while pushing back against claims that AI is already replacing large numbers of graduate jobs. PwC recently reduced its graduate intake from around 1,500 to 1,300, but Amitrano says that decision was driven by a slowdown in demand following the November 2024 Budget, not automation. The firm still receives roughly 400,000 applications each year and uses AI only in the early stages of screening before human interviews.Before the recent escalation in the Middle East, Amitrano says business confidence had been showing signs of recovery. Falling finance costs, strong corporate balance sheets and wage inflation running ahead of cost inflation had created conditions for what he describes as potential economic “lift-off”. However, geopolitical tensions have reintroduced uncertainty, particularly around energy prices, where the UK remains the most expensive country in Europe for energy.He also reflects on the impact of the November 2024 Budget, which he describes as a miscalculation that combined several policies — workers’ rights reforms, minimum wage increases and higher employer National Insurance contributions — in a way that made hiring feel riskier for businesses. Amitrano says that damaged the relationship between government and business, although dialogue has begun to improve through initiatives such as Keep Britain Working, which aims to bring economically inactive people back into the labour market.Presenter: Simon Jack Producer: Ollie Smith & Olie D'Albertanson02:32 AI transformation imperative for business survival 06:15 Graduate recruitment cut due to economic slowdown, not AI 10:07 AI in recruitment: screening 400,000 applications for 4,000 jobs 14:07 Value of university education beyond qualifications 19:37 November 2024 budget damaged business confidence 21:57 Middle East conflict derails UK economic recovery 26:32 Call for Rachel Reeves to relax fiscal rules for infrastructure 28:07 £2 trillion infrastructure gap: technology, talent and infrastructure spending needed

Charles Stewart, chief executive of Sotheby's, joins the Big Boss Interview and discusses the scrutiny facing the art market over money laundering, the growth of digital art and NFTs, the expansion of sports collectibles, and how the conflict in the Middle East could affect the industry.Stewart, who previously served as chief executive of a small bank before joining Sotheby’s, describes the characterisation of the industry as working with illicit money as a “misjudged notion”. He argues the company’s client base consists largely of established collectors, museum trustees and philanthropists who buy works to live with them rather than to obscure wealth.Russian buyers — often cited in discussions about opaque art transactions — represented less than 1% of Sotheby’s global business when sanctions were imposed following the invasion of Ukraine, he says, challenging assumptions about the role of Russian money in the market.Geopolitics is also shaping the art market. The Middle East has become an increasingly important region for Sotheby’s, with auctions in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi reflecting years of market development across the Gulf. Stewart says the company’s immediate priority amid escalating regional tensions is the safety of staff working there, though he notes market reaction to the latest conflict has so far been “somewhat muted”.Stewart notes that countries including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are investing heavily in cultural infrastructure as part of longer-term economic diversification strategies. Institutions such as the Louvre Abu Dhabi — open for nearly a decade — and the forthcoming Guggenheim Abu Dhabi form part of plans to establish new global cultural destinations.Despite these shifts, London remains central to Sotheby’s global operations. The company’s New Bond Street headquarters reflects more than 280 years of British heritage and the city continues to function as Sotheby’s second-largest sales centre after New York. A recent London auction achieved a 100% sell-through rate with bidders from 40 countries, demonstrating sustained international participation despite post-Brexit complications around import and export logistics.The conversation also examines how technology is changing the art market. Stewart argues digital art represents a natural evolution in artistic practice rather than simply a speculative phenomenon linked to the boom and collapse of NFTs. He distinguishes between cryptocurrency speculation, the blockchain technology underlying NFTs, and the broader creative shift as artists adopt digital tools. Sports memorabilia has also become a growing category for Sotheby’s. The market now extends beyond historic trophies and medals to include game-worn shirts and collectibles authenticated through technology that can match items to specific moments in matches. Stewart attributes the expansion partly to generational wealth transfer and to younger collectors’ interest in pre-owned objects with personal and cultural significance.Presenter: Sean Farrington Producer: Olie D'Albertanson Editor: Henry Jones02:12 - Middle East conflict impact 15:30 - Anti-Money laundering regulations 17:29 - Russian sanctions 19:30 - "Misguided Notion" of art world bad behaviour 23:34 - Digital Art as natural evolution 29:30 - Sports memorabilia growth

Anthony Houghton, Chief Executive of Holland & Barrett, joins the Big Boss Interview as social media and online self-diagnosis reshape how consumers approach health and wellness.He describes a retail landscape where customers increasingly arrive in store — or online — having already decided what they need based on influencer content or digital health advice, not all of which is accurate or appropriate to their individual circumstances. In a £110 billion global health and wellness industry, the challenge for established retailers is navigating the gap between what customers believe products do and what they are legally permitted to claim.Holland & Barrett’s response has been a major internal reset. Three years ago, the company invested in a dedicated science team to review its entire range. Of approximately 4,500 core products, 2,700 have since been reformulated or upgraded. More than 1,000 own-brand products have been completely overhauled in the past 18 months alone. Labelling presents particular complexity. Products marketed for perimenopause, for example, may feature the term prominently on packaging to help customers find relevant items. Yet detailed ingredient information states that vitamin B6 contributes to hormonal regulation and iron supports normal cognitive function — without referencing perimenopause directly. Strict Advertising Standards Authority rules limit what retailers can claim about specific conditions, creating a disconnect between searchable labels and regulated ingredient statements. Houghton acknowledges many customers may not understand this distinction.The transformation has coincided with strong financial performance. Holland & Barrett reported 11% sales growth — its third consecutive year of double-digit increases — with digital sales up 20% overall and accounting for 21% of total revenue. However, £300 million invested over three years in store refits, supply chain upgrades and internal capability building has weighed on profit margins. Houghton describes the investment as “fixing the foundations”, with efficiency gains expected to restore profitability as the transformation programme matures.Despite digital growth, physical retail remains central to the strategy. The company operates 809 stores across the UK and Ireland, opened nine new sites this year and has completed a major refit programme. Houghton rejects suggestions that the High Street is dead, arguing that physical and digital channels are complementary rather than competitive. Stores now offer personal consultations, experiential elements such as yoga studios in selected locations, and partnerships with diagnostic provider Randox to deliver health MOT blood testing in a growing number of sites.Cost pressures remain acute. Minimum wage increases affect the majority of staff across hundreds of stores. Holland & Barrett pays above the statutory National Living Wage and plans to announce another rise shortly. Rather than passing those costs directly to customers through price increases, the strategy focuses on driving operational efficiencies elsewhere. At the same time, the company has increased investment in colleague training — requiring staff to complete health and wellness training before advising customers — even as many retailers are cutting back.Presenter: Sean Farrington Producer: Olie D'Albertanson Editor: Henry Jones00:16 Will and Sean intro pod 01:40 Anthony Houghton joins BBI 02:00 The growth of H&B 03:30 Self-diagnosing via social media 05:17 Decision to invest in dedicated science team 05:56 2,700 products reformulated in last couple of years 08:42 Which? found supplement doses higher than recommended intake 12:31 Product & label concerns 18:40 Growth in magnesium, creatine and fibre. 23:40 Loyalty schemes 29:31 The High St isn't dead 34:00 Impact of National Living Wage 41:00 Retail as a career choice

Nicole Melillo Shaw, Managing Director of Volvo UK, joins Big Boss Interview at a pivotal moment for the electric vehicle market, as the company recalls 10,500 EX30 electric cars following four battery fires globally.“It’s against everything we stand for,” she says, reflecting on a situation that challenges a brand built on nearly a century of safety leadership. Despite a global failure rate of just 0.02% and no fatalities, Volvo identified the root cause in late December and immediately instructed owners not to charge beyond 70% while a fix is implemented. Repairs are scheduled to begin in late March. For Volvo, the response reflects what she describes as a precautionary, safety-first culture, even when the commercial implications are uncomfortable.Melillo Shaw examines what the recall means for consumer confidence in electric vehicles — a technology already under heightened scrutiny — even though petrol vehicles statistically present a greater inherent fire risk due to flammable fuel systems.The recall comes as electric vehicle adoption remains slower than manufacturers once anticipated, despite annual growth exceeding 20%. Volvo’s UK electric sales peaked at 28% following the EX30 launch but have since stabilised at just over 22 per cent as more than 160 additional models enter the market and buyers opt for “one more petrol” or hybrid before fully switching.Range anxiety, she argues, is no longer the central issue, but infrastructure concerns persist. Confusing government messaging — pairing incentives with discussions of pay-per-mile charges and benefit-in-kind changes — continues to add to consumer hesitation.Global instability adds further complexity. Volvo has been regionalising production, partly in response to tariff pressures, building vehicles closer to the markets in which they are sold. That turbulence elevates the UK’s importance as Volvo’s third-largest market, where a direct-to-consumer model has delivered 40% growth and lifted market share from 2.5% to 3.5%.Government Zero Emission Vehicle mandates now require manufacturers to meet steep electrification quotas or face fines of £12,000 per non-compliant vehicle from November. Volvo discontinued diesel models in the UK in 2023 and says it could sell 100% electric vehicles tomorrow if demand existed. However, meeting regulatory targets while absorbing development costs and discounting pressures presents a commercial balancing act.Finally, Melillo Shaw reflects on her own trajectory — from Scunthorpe through healthcare brands to automotive leadership. Volvo deliberately recruited her because she had never bought a car, valuing the perspective of someone who understood the anxiety of a major purchase. She argues the industry must broaden access and challenge assumptions about who belongs in automotive careers, creating clearer pathways for talent from working-class communities.

Mark Allan, CEO of FTSE 100 property giant Landsec, tells Will Bain that much of the narrative around the UK’s commercial property market isn’t quite right. Demand for office space is robust: businesses are signing 15 to 20 year leases, and firms that downsized after COVID are reversing course. Even the fear that artificial intelligence will trigger mass job losses isn’t materialising just yet in leasing behaviour.He is bullish on the future of retail. Allan believes the shopping centre is firmly “back”, with sales and rents climbing again at major destinations such as Liverpool ONE and Bluewater. Retailers, he says, have become more selective - closing weaker sites while doubling down on the biggest and strongest locations. And with no new centres being built, the most successful ones are only becoming more valuable.But Allan is blunt about the challenges facing large scale development in the UK. The affordable housing market won’t improve until private development becomes financially viable again. Rising construction costs, slow and unpredictable planning processes and persistently high interest rates are making major projects far harder to get off the ground. His sharpest criticism, though, is for Westminster. Allan argues that political instability is damaging investor confidence and making long term planning extremely difficult. Allan says the business rates system is "crazily out of date". He welcomes the government’s ambition for planning reform, but says the UK keeps being dragged back into cycles of “permanent drama” that undermine efforts to fix the system.Presenter: Will Bain Producer: Jeevan Nerwan Editor: Henry Jones00:00 Sean and Will start pod 01:35 Mark Allan joins BBI 03:09 What does Landsec do? 04:56 Diversification into residential property 10:02 Gentrification 13:15 Investment outside of London and the South East 16:15 Affordable housing & planning 22:39 Demand for office space & AI 32:48 Shopping centres & the future of retail 39:43 Business rates 41:09: Government decision making & political instability 50:16 End of pod

Clive Chesser, chief executive of PureGym, says surviving cancer fundamentally changed him as a leader — deepening his empathy and reshaping how he approached life, including changing career..His diagnosis came during an extraordinarily difficult period in December 2021. While leading his then pub business through a complex private equity transaction, he was experiencing persistent breathlessness and fatigue he initially attributed to long COVID. After noticing swollen lymph nodes in his neck, members of his family — several of whom are senior doctors — urged him to undergo further tests. He completed them just before finalising the business deal.Christmas brought what he describes as an unimaginable sequence of events. On Christmas Day, his father-in-law died while his wife isolated at home with COVID. Shortly afterwards, Chesser received confirmation that he had cancer in his lymph nodes. The following day, he says, he faced the hardest moment of his life: telling his three teenage children he had cancer.At the time, Chesser was marathon-fit, training regularly and running annually. That physical condition proved critical during treatment. His fitness enabled him to tolerate more aggressive radiotherapy and additional chemotherapy rounds, improving his chances of full recovery — which he ultimately achieved. The experience, he says, transformed his sense of purpose and made his subsequent appointment as PureGym’s chief executive feel profoundly aligned with his personal journey.That personal conviction underpins what he describes as a broader fitness revolution reshaping the UK gym industry. Nearly half — 47% — of PureGym’s January 2025 joiners were aged 25 or under, reflecting what Chesser sees as a generational shift in attitudes to health. Younger members, particularly Gen Z and Gen Alpha, are integrating fitness into their social identity. Gyms are becoming social hubs, not simply places to exercise, where mental wellbeing and community sit alongside physical strength.He describes a trend he calls “fitness snacking” — members moving fluidly between gyms, boutique studios and fitness events before returning to a core membership. Despite this apparent transience, average tenure stands at 19 months and is rising. Most new joiners are returning members, a notable fact given PureGym’s no-contract, month-to-month model, where members actively choose to stay.Women are driving another significant shift in the market, moving away from cardio-dominated routines towards strength and conditioning. In response, PureGym has introduced more than 50 women-only workout spaces across the UK after research showed many women prefer environments where they feel more comfortable and less exposed. These areas exist nationwide and sit alongside screened lighter-weight zones designed to reduce intimidation for first-time users. While the majority of PureGym’s 456 UK sites remain mixed-gender spaces, Chesser argues that offering choice has been critical to growth and inclusion.Chesser also delivers a critique of the Labour government’s economic performance, arguing it has failed to deliver the long-term growth strategy promised before taking office. He points to National Insurance rises and the continued burden of business rates on bricks-and-mortar operators — including gyms and pubs — while online businesses face comparatively lighter structural costs.He draws a stark comparison between government and business leadership, noting that the UK has had six Prime Ministers in ten years — instability he likens to running a football club rather than a company built on rolling five-year strategies and careful succession planning. In his view, the government remains trapped in short-term crisis management rather than long-term economic planning.Presenter: Sean Farrington Producer: Olie D'Albertanson Editor: Henry Jones00:00 Fliss and Sean intro pod 01:50 Clive joins BBI 03:30 Growth on Gen Z gym users 10:20 Women only spaces and safety 16:00 Low cost model 25:20 Govt's 10 Year Health Plan 28:40 Clive's cancer journey 39:15 Frustration at govt's growth promises

Timo Boldt, founder and chief executive of Gousto, believes Britain’s food system is broken.He points to the growing economic burden of diet-related disease with Government figures suggesting obesity alone costs the NHS more than £11 billion a year, while broader estimates put the total economic cost of overweight and obesity at more than £100 billion annually once lost productivity and reduced quality of life are included.Boldt argues the problem begins with what Britons eat. Research suggests more than half of the calories consumed in the UK come from ultra-processed foods, rising to around two-thirds among children and adolescents. He says these products are often engineered for what the industry calls the “bliss point” — the combination of salt, sugar and fat that keeps people coming back for more — and that the result is rising levels of obesity and diet-related illness.He defends Gousto’s typical price point of about £3.20 per meal per person, arguing that it compares favourably with supermarket shopping once household food waste, time spent planning meals and convenience are taken into account. The company cannot compete with the very lowest-cost diets, he admits, but says it is targeting the large proportion of households already spending similar amounts on evening meals.Boldt also argues that farmers sit at the weakest point in the food chain, squeezed by large manufacturers and retailers who dominate what ends up on supermarket shelves. He says the system would look very different if incentives favoured fresh produce rather than heavily processed foods.Government action so far — including the sugar tax and restrictions on junk-food advertising — is, in his view, only a start. He calls for a broader approach combining taxes on unhealthy products with subsidies for more nutritious farming, alongside tighter rules on product placement in supermarkets.If diet-related disease could be reduced, he argues, the savings for the NHS and the wider economy would be enormous. The long-term solution, he says, is to “go upstream” and change what people eat by reshaping the food system itself.Gousto grew rapidly through the 2010s, with annual growth of around 90% in its first decade. But the business faced a very different environment in 2022, as interest rates rose sharply and household budgets tightened. Boldt responded by expanding the range of recipes and focusing on value, while pushing the company towards profitability and self-funding.He started the business fifteen years ago after long hours in the finance industry left him eating poorly. In the early days he delivered boxes himself, handing out his personal mobile number to customers. Today, after expansion into Ireland, he says the next phase will be international — once the company has fully cracked its home market.Presenter: Sean Farrington Producer: Olie D'Albertanson Editor: Henry Jones00:00 Fliss and Sean start pod 01:39 Timo Boldt joins BBI 02:25 Obesity caused by ultra processed food and its impact 03:50 The cost of Gousto and whether it's too expensive 11:15 Farmer not paid enough. 19:56 Discount model in the industry 23:17 Setting up Gousto and hand delivering food 27:24 Tougher times and how they were navigated 32:20 Why is Gousto only in the UK and Ireland? 39:40 End of pod

Brian Niccol took over at Starbucks in 2024. He became CEO at a time profits had been falling and customers going elsewhere. He says Starbucks had got too distracted on efficiency and technology and lost focus on customers and experience.Starbucks has re-introduced things like handwriting on cups and ceramic mugs in a bid to win back customers, and has also given the menu and stores a makeover. It's already seen sales improve but Brian Niccol says they still need to do more..Technology is playing a big part in Starbucks plans to improve efficiency. It's using AI to take orders and allowing people to schedule their orders. It's also using technology to simplify the ordering process and stock. Niccol says this is allowing staff to spend more time to chat with customers. Presenter - Michelle Fleury Producers - John Mervin and Justin Bones Editor - Henry Jones01:40 Getting customers back to Starbucks. Says had lost focus and got distracted 07:22 Using technology such as AI taking orders and scheduling orders for customers 15:30 Partnering with 2028 LA Olympics 19:16 Should investors expect a slow rebuild or will the pace pick up this year 22:20 Giving power back to the storePicture: Reuters