Nir Kaissar: Economic Sentiment versus Reality - [Making Markets, REPLAY]

My guest this week is Sam Rines, economist, author and Macro Strategist at WisdomTree. Sam was the first guest on Making Markets one year ago, where a lot of his takes proved to be highly accurate. So we decided to record part II one week before the election. We start with his base case for the election, the potential scenarios, and what has and hasn’t been priced in. We then move onto a wider discussion on the economy, including the fed, the strength of the US consumer, AI and Sam’s portfolio positioning. Please enjoy this conversation with Sam Rines. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets (00:01:04) Introduction to the Guest: Sam Rines (00:01:20) Election Scenarios and Market Implications (00:03:39) Potential Policy Impacts on Markets (00:07:50) Tax Policy and Economic Predictions (00:16:19) The Fed's Influence and Market Reactions (00:23:37) Unique Macro Research Approach (00:24:46) Resilient American Consumer (00:25:41) COVID's Impact on Savings and Spending (00:26:32) Cruise Industry Rebound (00:27:59) Travel and Leisure Boom (00:30:02) Income-Driven Expansion (00:30:53) Work-from-Anywhere Culture (00:32:33) Corporate Strategies and AI (00:39:11) Global Investment Insights (00:45:14) Hopeful Market Outlook Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week again, I’m again on the other side of the mic, as I’m interviewed by Joe Magyer, the founder of Seaplane Ventures. This is a wide-ranging conversation where we talk about the Fed rate cut, cover different asset classes including VC, PE, Fixed Income, and Public Equities, and my journey in building Canopy Capital. This episode first appeared on the Investing in Startups podcast hosted by Joe, which I highly recommend you check out. Please enjoy this conversation with Joe Magyer. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets (00:00:19) Overview of Canopy Capital (00:00:44) The Evolution of Asset Management (00:01:54) The Importance of Tax Individualized Investing (00:02:44) Starting the Podcast Journey (00:03:16) Crypto: From Skepticism to Interest (00:04:18) Exploring Various Asset Classes (00:06:08) Challenges and Rewards of Podcasting (00:11:12) Competitiveness in Different Asset Classes (00:16:38) Insights on Venture Capital (00:22:59) Building a Venture-Backed Company (00:24:18) The Founder’s Dilemma: Risk and Innovation (00:25:17) A Career at Fidelity: Reflections and Decisions (00:27:17) The Transition: From Intrapreneur to Entrepreneur (00:30:21) Market Insights: The Fed and Economic Cycles (00:36:27) Investment Strategies: Observing and Predicting (00:39:40) Web3 and Crypto: Future Prospects Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Eric and Matt share insights on the market's performance through the third quarter of 2024, highlighting the S&P rising by 6% and a significant 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the first since the pandemic. Eric reflects on market sentiment and the complexities of predicting Fed actions, addressing the contrasts between past and present credit cycles, and emphasizing the importance of leverage awareness. They also delve into the impact of fiscal stimulus, wage inflation, and private market trends, while considering potential risks like inflation resurgence and government debt levels. Lastly, the conversation touches on the private markets, their growth, and the role of corporate credit and gives perspective on potential election volatility for next quarter.  For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets (00:00:23) Fed Rate Cuts and Market Reactions (00:01:32) Leverage and Market Dynamics (00:03:07) Fiscal Stimulus and Wage Inflation (00:06:14) Global Economic Trends and Risks (00:11:04) Fed Policies and Historical Perspectives (00:16:06) Inflation Concerns and Market Implications (00:19:34) Investor Strategies and Fed Data Analysis (00:23:17) Fed's Easing Cycle: Market Reactions (00:23:33) Election Volatility and Market Expectations (00:24:08) Split Government and Market Stability (00:27:45) Corporate Credit Spreads and Economic Indicators (00:34:17) Private Markets and Investment Trends (00:41:01) Sports Betting and Market Regulation (00:44:02) Predictions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest this week is Robbie Cannon. Robbie founded Horizon Investments in 1999 and grew the company to $7B in AUM before selling in 2021. Today, he takes us on a tour of the asset management industry.  We cover many fascinating topics, such as the industry's evolution over 25 years, the blurring of lines between wealth and asset management, oligopolies in finance, the impact of private equity, the role of technology and AI, and more. Please enjoy this conversation with Robbie Cannon. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets (00:01:06) Evolution of Wealth and Asset Management (00:04:18) Blurred Lines in Financial Services (00:14:18) Private Equity and Financial Advisors (00:17:05) Robo Advisors and Technological Integration (00:26:07) Evaluating Compatibility and Money in Motion (00:27:06) Peer Collaboration and Industry Insights (00:29:05) Strategic Asset Allocation for 2024 (00:29:46) Challenges for Emerging Managers (00:32:16) AI in Asset Management (00:45:27) Digital Solutions and Future Trends (00:49:36) The Evolution of Financial Advice Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest today is Jerry Derevyanny, a partner at Bengal Capital, a cannabis investing firm. Jerry has been a part of the regulated Cannabis industry since 2014, and today he shares the nuances of investing in this growing and unique industry. I enjoyed listening to Jerry’s frameworks for the industry, such as Ants versus Locusts, the similarities and differences between Alcohol and Cannabis, capital allocation, and valuation. We also cover politics, the farm bill, and what the future of the Cannabis industry may look like. Please enjoy this conversation with Jerry Derevyanny. Bengal Capital's substack here. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Introduction to Cannabis Investing (00:00:30) Changing Investment Strategies (00:01:10) Highlighting Grown Rogue (00:02:33) Cannabis Market Dynamics (00:05:28) State-by-State Market Analysis (00:11:15) Capital Cycles in Cannabis (00:18:24) Federal Legalization and Its Impacts (00:29:56) Hemp-Derived THC and Market Trends (00:34:47) Conclusion and Future Outlook Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest this week is David Nadig. David is the Financial Futurist for ETF Trends and ETF Database and has had over 25 years of ETF experience. We start off by acknowledging the debate over active and passive investing. David and I discuss the potential dangers of passive funds on market discovery, the inelastic markets hypothesis, and the effects of massive inflows into index funds. This episode explores how leverage and options trading interact with these market dynamics and the broader implications on capitalism and market structures. Please enjoy my conversation with David Nadig. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets (00:01:25) The Passive vs Active Debate (00:03:02) Impact of Passive Investing on Market Pricing (00:04:02) Flow and Market Cap Multiplier Effect (00:07:20) Daily Leverage and Market Volatility (00:10:35) Uninformed vs Informed Traders (00:19:19) Opportunities and Risks in Passive Investing (00:21:52) Opportunities in Forced Selling and Crisis (00:22:17) The Shift from Public to Private Markets (00:24:46) Challenges in Private Equity Liquidity (00:29:46) The Broken System of Capitalism (00:35:30) Insurance Problems and Government Role (00:37:02) Thoughts on Capitalism's Future Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest today is Nir Kaissar. Nir is the founder and portfolio manager at Unison Advisors and one of my favorite economic commentators/columnists at Bloomberg. Today, he joins us for a wide-ranging discussion on the US economy. We start with the disconnect between the strong economic numbers and the sentiment amongst the population. We then cover indicators of recessions, the potential for a systemic crisis in Private Equity, the magnificent seven, and more. Please enjoy this excellent conversation with Nir Kaissar. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) - Welcome to Making Markets (00:02:07) - Exploring Economic Disparities Amidst a Booming Economy (00:02:53) - The Living Wage Crisis in the U.S. (00:04:30) - Unpacking the Wage Stagnation Puzzle (00:07:12) - The Transparency and Productivity Dilemma (00:09:18) - Innovative Solutions for Economic Inequality (00:12:41) - Government's Role in Redistributing Wealth (00:18:31) - Addressing the Retirement Savings Gap (00:19:26) - Debunking Recession Predictions and Economic Indicators (00:29:10) - The Potential Risks in Private Equity and Real Estate (00:32:55) - The Growing Influence of Private Equity (00:34:55) - The Unprecedented Scale of Private Capital (00:36:28) - The Need for Transparency in Private Equity (00:38:06) - Exploring Systemic Risks and Distribution Concerns (00:40:37) - The Changing Landscape of Commercial Real Estate (00:43:03) - Rethinking Bailouts and Sovereign Wealth Funds (00:46:29) - The Debate on Government Intervention and Economic Stability (00:56:08) - Public Securities and the Magnificent Seven Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest this week is Mark Dow. Mark started his career as an economist with the US Treasury and the IMF before he joined Wall Street. Today, he is the founder of behavourialmacro.com and runs a fund that combines his skillsets as a trader and an economist. In this discussion, we talk about why economists are usually bad investors, how Mark approaches markets, and we cover some provocative ideas - including how Quantitive Easing and Tightening have little effect and why Mark's not worried about US debt. Please enjoy this great conversation with Mark Dow For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:01:06) Welcome to Making Markets (00:01:53) Starting the Conversation: Economists as Investors (00:03:31) Transition from Economist to Trader: A Personal Journey (00:05:32) Understanding Market Narratives and Trading Patterns (00:08:09) The Role of the Federal Reserve in Market Narratives (00:09:26) The Impact of Monetary Policy on Market Dynamics (00:09:40) The Behavioral, Secular, and Cyclical Factors Influencing Monetary Policy (00:11:52) The Limitations of the Federal Reserve's Control Over Money Creation (00:14:40) The Behavioral Conditioning of Interest Rates (00:16:26) Understanding the Role of Banks in Money Creation (00:17:16) The Misconceptions about Monetary Policy (00:17:50) The Mechanics of Quantitative Easing (00:18:50) The Impact of Quantitative Easing on the Economy (00:19:55) The Role of Risk Appetite in Lending (00:21:25) The Effect of Economic Expectations on Yields (00:22:19) The Role of the Fed in the Financial System (00:26:53) The Impact of Competitive Pressures on Risk Taking (00:27:13) Understanding the Financial Instability Hypothesis (00:31:01) The Role of Demand in Asset Valuation (00:34:05) Understanding the Market Risk Cycle (00:34:13) The New Cycle and Its Differences (00:35:11) Economic Headwinds and Future Predictions (00:35:41) The Role of Banks and Areas of Concern (00:36:46) The Impact of Debt and the Financial System (00:37:15) The Role of Government Debt and Its Implications (00:37:36) The Stability of Treasuries and the Global Financial System (00:38:07) The Future of the Dollar and Government Debt (00:39:14) The Impact of Growth and Productivity on the Economy (00:40:03) The Risk Cycle and the Role of Institutions (00:42:06) The Impact of Fiscal Deficit and Modern Monetary Theory (00:48:55) Understanding Income Inequality and Asset Price Inflation (00:50:28) The Role of Finance and Technology in Income Inequality (00:53:34) The Future of the Housing Market Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today, we're replaying my episode with Nik “The Carny” Lentz. It's not every day you talk to a UFC fighter turned trader. And this conversation is both intense and insightful. We start by talking about Nik's journey from a difficult childhood to a UFC career and his philosophy on fighting, parenting, and life. We then cover his move to trading derivatives full-time and his approach to position sizing, risk management, and more. This is a different kind of episode, but one I thoroughly enjoyed listening back to, and I hope you feel the same. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx  Show Notes  (00:01:39) - (First Question) - Nik’s childhood and how he got into ultimate fighting (00:08:54) - Nik’s mentality when in the cage fighting (00:10:37) - Links between traumatic childhood and becoming a UFC fighter (00:11:48) - How Nik feels about his children potentially fighting in the future (00:13:29) - Nik’s earliest UFC fights and the importance of storytelling in the sport (00:21:35) - Insecurity and work ethic, getting the balance right to be able to perform at the top (00:26:35) - The relationship between drive and motivation and the kind of upbringing you have (00:28:52) - How Nik got into finance and his first moves in the market  (00:33:00) - Nik’s development of his own investment process and how he manages risk (00:36:00) - Determining position sizes, when to get in, when to get out. The ratio between Nik’s low-risk trades versus his big swings (00:38:16) - The similarities between gambling and investing, Nik’s opinion on the apparent lack of differentiation  (00:40:19) - Nik’s advice to young people looking to get started in investing (00:41:32) - Comparing the ups and downs of UFC fighting versus trading in the markets (00:43:32) - The process of walking away from fighting and whether Nik thinks he will ever walk away from investing Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest today is Saurabh Mukherjea, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marcellus Investment Managers. Saurabh is one of the most articulate fund managers in India, and today, he lays out a compelling case for investing in the country. We start by contrasting India with China and explaining why China receives all the attention despite the much better results from the Indian market. We also cover the bull case for India, the rise of domestic inflows in India, the Indian bond market, and close with a discussion of the risks and the themes Saurabh is excited about over the coming years. Please enjoy this conversation with Saurabh Mukherjea. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets (00:01:05) Meet Saurabh Mukherjee: India's Articulate Fund Manager (00:01:18) India vs. China: A Market Comparison (00:01:26) The Rise of Domestic Inflows in India (00:01:33) Challenges and Risks in Indian Markets (00:02:17) Why India is Oversold to American Investors (00:03:59) The Flow of Capital: India vs. China (00:08:30) The Impact of Political Dynamics on Markets (00:09:55) China vs. India: Private Sector Relations (00:11:19) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China and India (00:13:37) Perceptions of Free Market Democracies (00:15:31) Media Influence and Market Trends (00:18:45) The Role of Domestic Investors in India (00:20:19) Wealth Distribution and Investment Trends (00:21:18) Impact of COVID-19 on Market Participation (00:24:16) Regulatory Perspective on Market Growth (00:24:38) Social Shifts Driving Market Trends (00:27:36) Angel Investing Boom (00:28:18) Debt and Corporate Balance Sheets (00:34:31) The Bull Case for India: Key Themes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices