The Herald Live: Trump’s midterm test

The US midterm elections are typically a referendum on the sitting president, but the stakes this year are especially high. President Trump’s second term has been marked by an unprecedented rate of both executive actions and legal challenges. However, the Republican-controlled 119th Congress have wielded little oversight and have passed even less legislation. Going into the midterms, President Trump’s approval rating is near historic lows.Will Republicans retain control of Congress in spite of Trump’s low approval ratings? What do the midterms signal about the future of the Democrats and Republicans? What does Australia need to know about the 120th Congress?To discuss the results of the US midterm elections, the United States Studies Centre and the POLITICO Canberra Playbook team joined forces to deliver a special event. The audience heard from Canberra Playbook Launch Editor Ryan Heath, USSC Associate Professor of American Politics and Foreign Policy, Dr David Smith and USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein in a discussion moderated by USSC Director of Engagement and Impact Mari Koeck.Carrie Budoff Brown, Executive Editor and Executive Vice President, POLITICO also joined remotely to share her insights.

Americans will vote in the midterm elections ― a referendum on the president and his party ― at a time when US President Donald Trump's approval rating is at a record low.The Democrats are fighting to win back Congress, leading Trump to push for new voter requirement laws and toy with suggestions he will call a national security emergency ahead of the polls.At this event, Herald editor Jordan Baker unpacked the key issues of the midterms with political and international editor Peter Hartcher and columnist Jacqueline Maley.They were joined by experts from the United States Studies Centre (USSC): CEO Dr Michael Green and Director of Research Jared Mondschein.Renowned US political analyst and bestselling author Dr Larry Sabato also provided video remarks from Virginia. Sabato was in conversation with Herald columnist and USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe.This exclusive event was held in partnership with The Sydney Morning Herald.

With much of the world’s attention focused on global flashpoints, Tibet’s uncertain future is often sidelined in geopolitical conversations. Yet the Tibetan plateau holds major implications for the region’s balance of power, climate security, and human rights around the world.What is the geopolitical significance of Tibet in the 21st century? How could Tibet’s environmental future affect millions of lives across Asia? And what does Tibet’s political future mean for religious freedom and international law around the world?To answer these questions, the United States Studies Centre hosted a discussion with Tibet Policy Institute Senior Research Fellow Dr Tenzin Desal, UTS Associate Professor in China Studies Dr Feng Chongyi and La Trobe Asia Director Dr Ruth Gamble, in conversation with United States Studies Centre CEO Dr Michael Green.

China, Russia and North Korea have significantly deepened strategic ties in recent years. China and North Korea have played significant roles in enabling Russia to prosecute its war on Ukraine, providing direct and indirect military, technological, economic and diplomatic support. Beyond the Ukraine war, the three countries share a common resistance to the US-led world order, promoting their own diplomatic groupings and alternative vision for a multipolar order.For some, this represents a deep and enduring ideological and strategic challenge to a fracturing Western-led global order and portends a greater likelihood of conflict in the Indo-Pacific. Others are less convinced that a China-Russia-North Korea axis can or will endure beyond the Ukraine war and argue that assessments of the combined threat are overblown.How should we understand the deepening relations between China, Russia and North Korea? Where is the emerging authoritarian axis likely to produce collective and bilateral strategic effects in Indo-Pacific region? Is there a divergence of views among countries in the region on the significance of the axis? And how should Australia and its partners respond?Bringing together leading experts from Australia, India, Singapore and the Philippines, USSC hosted a panel discussion unpacking these big questions facing the region. The panel featured Hudson Institute Senior Fellow, Dr Aparna Pande, University of the Philippines Professor Herman Joseph Kraft, National University of Singapore Associate Professor, Dr Ja Ian Chong and United States Studies Centre Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Program, Dr Lavina Lee, in conversation with Foreign Affairs and National Security Correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, Matthew Knott.

Almost all advanced technology today depends on critical minerals. Rare earths, in particular, are necessary for a range of applications, including powering electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, industrial motors, and defence systems. Yet the supply chain behind them is highly concentrated. China accounts for over 90% of the world’s rare earth refining and permanent magnet production, leaving the global economy exposed to a single point of failure.What have allies done to de-risk their rare earth supply chains? Have efforts been successful? What more needs to be done? And what might a joined-up allied approach look like?To answer these questions, the United States Studies Centre hosted a webinar discussion with Dr Naoise McDonagh, MBA Director and Senior Lecturer in Geopolitics and International Business at the School of Business and Law at Edith Cowan University, and author of the upcoming report The Missing Market: Why US and allies’ rare earth derisking needs a demand-side strategy. Dr McDonagh is joined by Genna Lehman, USSC Non-Resident Fellow in Economic Security and Sir Roland Wilson Pat Turner Scholar, and moderated by USSC Director of Economic Security, Hayley Channer.

Amid rising strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, US relations with nations such as the Philippines are increasingly in the global spotlight. But the history of the United States in the Indo-Pacific extends well beyond the modern age and is often forgotten. International migration, conflict and war have shaped a century of US Indo-Pacific influence and alliances, with implications for the modern day.What is the history of US involvement in the Indo-Pacific? How did the US-Philippines alliance shape a century of US foreign policy? What do the lessons of history teach us about the present moment in US-Pacific relations?To answer these questions, USSC held a public event with MIT Professor of History Christopher Capozzola in conversation with USSC CEO Dr Michael Green.

From striking down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs to undoing core pillars of the Voting Rights Act, the US Supreme Court docket this year has already made history. Some of the most consequential decisions will be released at the end of the court’s calendar, including the future of birthright citizenship in the United States and whether the president can remove leaders of independent federal agencies at will.Which decisions are most consequential? How can the Supreme Court temper the power of the president? What are the long-term impacts of these decisions?To discuss the final rulings of this year’s Supreme Court docket, USSC hosted a special event featuring co-host of ABC’s Planet America Chas Licciardello and USSC Honorary Associate Dr Harry Melkonian in conversation with USSC Director of Economic Security Hayley Channer.

The Pacific Islands are increasingly an arena of strategic competition between global powers. Yet amid these geopolitical circumstances, the challenges the Pacific Island countries themselves face are often overlooked. While many nations provide important development assistance to the region, such efforts are often duplicative, poorly implemented and sometimes even counterproductive.How can regional partners provide better support for the region? What are the challenges to governance in the Pacific? What is needed to build a more resilient Pacific ready to face the challenges of the future on its own terms?To answer these questions, USSC hosted CSIS Senior Fellow and Deputy Director with the Australia Chair Kathryn Paik, Lowy Institute FDC Pacific Research Fellow Serena Sasingian, USSC Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Dr Lavina Lee and Macquarie University researcher Ryosuke Hanada, in a conversation moderated by ABC Foreign Affairs reporter Stephen Dziedzic.

Asia's extraordinary economic rise — powered by globalisation and supply chains — lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty, increased the region’s global influence and reshaped the global order. Yet the same forces that drove that transformation define many of the tensions now threatening to undo it. Understanding Asia’s past, present and potential future has never been more critical to defining Australia’s place in a region increasingly defined by strategic competition.How has Asia overcome the challenges of its past? What does the future hold for Asia? What role can Australia play in the world’s most dynamic region?To answer these questions, USSC welcomed Professor Nick Bisley, Pro Vice-Chancellor Research and Professor of International Relations at La Trobe University, for a discussion of his new book, Asian Crucible, with USSC CEO Dr Michael Green.

Errol Flynn was the first Australian to become a Hollywood icon. His portrayal of Robin Hood in 1938 is one of the most legendary performances on the silver screen. The US Library of Congress selected The Adventures of Robin Hood for preservation in the National Film Registry. From his childhood in Tasmania and London, to his time as a young adult in New Guinea, before he found fame in America, his personal story is as mesmerising as many of the roles he played. Flynn faced trial in 1943 for statutory rape charges and, while acquitted, the trial revealed the sexual trafficking of underage girls in Hollywood on a grand scale.In her new book, Errol Flynn: The true story of Australia’s Hollywood icon, author Patricia O’Brien examines Flynn’s larger-than-life persona and reveals the story behind the well-cultivated Hollywood myths.Who was Errol Flynn behind the silver screen? How did he pave the way for other Australians in Hollywood? How should we think about his legacy?To discuss these questions, USSC was delighted to host a special book launch event featuring Dr Patricia O’Brien, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, in discussion with United States Studies Centre Senior Lecturer in American Studies Dr Aaron Nyerges.