55. Poland’s far-right split, the Berlin Pride attack, and bad nuz from the Strait of Hormuz

Three elections in three weeks and three very different lessons. Omri, Benni and Daniela go through Brazil, Serbia and Israel and ask what actually worked.In Brazil, Lula went into the runoff behind and written off, then won it on the back of a digital campaign that grew a WhatsApp channel from 60,000 to 11 million subscribers in a month. Fan clubs, influencers and a lot of people donating their platform to the cause.In Serbia, the students’ list took an absolute majority, 140 of 250 seats, against two years of state capture, a captured broadcaster and a sound cannon. Daniela was there as an election observer. The part that is not getting enough attention is how they built the list, through student plenums and local citizens’ assemblies out in the villages.In Israel, Netanyahu lost his majority and then pulled every lever at once. A phone call with the chief of police the night before the vote. Arab party activists arrested on election morning. A security chief who called the election perfect, then announced a foreign funding plot and asked for the result to be cancelled. Pressure on the army to bomb Iran. Omri flew in to vote and out again the same afternoon.Too big to rig has been the theme of the year. Israel was small enough.Chapters00:00 Intro02:40 Brazil: how Lula came back07:14 The WhatsApp masterclass, 60,000 to 11 million17:56 Serbia: from the streets to the ballot sheets25:01 Can you still win on Meta’s platforms?28:55 What happens next in Serbia33:29 Student plenums and village assemblies36:41 Israel: into the dark swamp42:05 Netanyahu’s 24 hours52:43 Why Israel was small enough to rig56:46 Autocrats’ days are numbered61:05 Wrap This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thistimetomorrowpod.substack.com

Fresh off the midterms, we zoom out with historian Sergey Radchenko. Did Trump’s drubbing change anything for Putin? Does Putin even believe Europe exists? And why does Sergey say Russia is a disease of the skin while China is a disease of the heart?Sergey argues the Russians missed the boat: their best window for a settlement on their terms was a Trump desperate for a win before the midterms. That window is gone, and Europe and Ukraine have agency that Moscow keeps discounting. We get into Putin’s real war aims (nobody knows except Putin), what the Soviet collapse and Afghanistan do and don’t teach us, Orban and Vucic losing, the AfD as Putin’s last hope in Europe, and what Europe has done right and wrong since 2022.After the break: China. Deindustrialisation, the terms and conditions of the Belt and Road, the Tajik parliament with Chinese characters on the front, whether Xi’s system is stable, demographics, climate, and why Sergey is still moderately optimistic.Sergey Radchenko is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and the author of To Run the World: The Kremlin’s Cold War Bid for Global Power. He joined us from Bologna.Hosts: Benjamin Zeeb, Omri Preiss and Daniela Vancic.Chapters00:11 Intro02:13 Did the midterms change anything for Putin?06:07 What does Putin actually want?12:03 Putin’s friends are losing elections17:56 Lessons from Soviet retreats, and what Europe can do26:32 Middle powers, democracies and autocracies34:17 China: a disease of the heart42:30 When does investment become influence?46:21 Is there a benign end state for China?53:48 Demographics and decline57:31 What should democracies do? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thistimetomorrowpod.substack.com

All three of us, the afternoon after the US midterms, on very little sleep. Daniela stayed up till 8am for Michigan and calls it a bloodbath: a Trump endorsement is now the kiss of death, Texas has a Democratic governor and senator, Kansas and South Carolina went blue, Mississippi is still being counted. Benny says the bank robbery has turned into a hostage situation, and the next two years are about one man trying not to go to prison. Omri worries Europe will do what it always does and crawl back into hibernation. Also: what the Democrats got right on message, why ICE lost Trump the Latino vote, whether Europe should shut up or say its piece, the coup question, and why “too big to rig” is the lesson for everyone.Listen, like, subscribe, follow! Share with your friends! And if you are not a member of a political party yet, go and join one. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thistimetomorrowpod.substack.com

Benny’s off dealing with children and Daniela is on some kind of democratic safari in Botswana, so Omri flies solo with a very special guest: Alberto Alemanno, professor at HEC Paris, founder of The Good Lobby, co-founder of Alliance4Europe and one of the sharpest commentators on EU affairs around. Where does Europe’s politics stand, which dependencies leave the continent exposed, what does the EU keep getting wrong when it regulates, can growth and sustainability be reconciled, and how do you actually mobilise European citizens and leaders before it is too late?Listen, like, subscribe, follow! Share with your friends! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thistimetomorrowpod.substack.com

Omri’s out, so it’s two Germans going at it. Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Berlin: three regional elections in a few weeks, record turnout, and the far right still gaining. Daniela and Benny ask how Germany got here, why the centrist parties keep losing the plot, what the tax story since the 1980s has to do with it, whether the firewall still holds, and what the far right actually wants to do with power.Listen, like, subscribe, follow! Share with your friends! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thistimetomorrowpod.substack.com

We’re back to school, it’s business as usual, what’s up, what’s new? One of our hosts became German AND got engaged, another had a BABY, and a third is on the beach in Greece…What else? Only everything. Listen, like, subscribe, follow! Share with your friends! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thistimetomorrowpod.substack.com

“Now, what you’re about to listen to is the most recent episode from the podcast, This Time Tomorrow, so make sure you’re somewhere calm, cosy and quiet. A nice armchair, for example, or perhaps your bed. Yes, actually, go have a nice lie-down. If there are noisy people around you, then tell them to keep it down. Open your window and yell, ‘excuse me! I’m about to listen to an episode of This Time Tomorrow and I need you to quiet down, please! Don’t you know, by the way, that it’s rather too late in the evening for such a ruckus!’ If they ask you, ‘what is it about?’, the podcast, that is, then tell them, ”l’I’m not quite sure yet! But it reminds me a bit of the opening to Italo Calvino’s novel, If on a winter’s night a traveller.’Don’t worry, I’ll give you a moment, and then I’ll meet you right back here.Done?” This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thistimetomorrowpod.substack.com

In the 56th episode of This Time Tomorrow, Omri and Daniela sit down with Professor Damir Kapidžić to pick his brain on what is currently happening with the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in Bosnia. First of all, what does Bosnia’s intricate political landscape look like? Clue: it’s complicated. Secondly, what’s the Trump administration’s interest in the OHR, and why may it threaten multilateralism and stability in the region? The Office of the High Representative was created by the Dayton Peace Agreement in 1995, so why is it now at the center of a geopolitical tug-of-war, with the U.S. backing an Italian diplomat linked to its business interests?Meanwhile, Bosnia’s complex governance, ethnic tensions, and a looming gas pipeline suggest there may be more to this than meets the eye.And what’s the role of Europe in all of this? Just polite resistance?Listen to learn more about a really important issue (that is also sort of riveting in an almost blockbuster kind of way?) that may just have flown under your radar. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thistimetomorrowpod.substack.com

In today’s episode of This Time Tomorrow, Omri, Daniela and Benni discuss… * the tragic Berlin Pride attack and the far-right’s exploitation of German policing failures * how Poland’s recent far-right fragmentation is revealing cracks in its unity ahead of critical elections next year. How can pro-democracy forces capitalise on the divisions within the PiS party? (Is there anything that Polish democrats can learn from the UK’s new PM, Andy Burnham?) * and, finally, how the Strait of Hormuz crisis could land Europe in quite a bit of trouble unless something changes… soon.Worried? Let’s get to work. Please take a moment to hit subscribe or follow and to share this episode with your democratic as well as non-democratic friends (the latter may need it more). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thistimetomorrowpod.substack.com

OK, listen up, folks! There’s an urgent need for pro-democracy forces to update their storytelling in the digital age. If you’re a regular listener of this podcast, then you already know that, but you’re probably also frustrated with the pace of progress. We hear you, we see you, and we’re on your side. In today’s episode, Daniela, Benni & Omri chat to Roza Ismailai about how bureaucratic delays and fear of making mistakes often hold back bold and timely narratives, with the catastrophic result that pro-democratic messages tend to feel irrelevant in fast-moving online spaces. So what do we do, then? How do we go from riding the coat-tails of extremist narratives to setting and shaping our own communications agenda?Tune in a for a conversation that tells you why the future is made of authentic collaborations with influencers, of long-term strategic partnerships, and of empowering comms teams to take creative risks. The call to action has seldom been so clear: trust creators.Roza Ismailai is currently Communications Manager at European Cultural Foundation. She has a long and varied background in public relations, political communication and journalism. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thistimetomorrowpod.substack.com