Episode 201 | Autonomy Economy: Economics of Electrifying Commercial Fleets

Dr. Matt Markel, Business Leader, Radar & Autonomy Expert with experience at Waymo and in the defense industry joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the NHTSA mandate requiring AEB (automatic emergency braking) systems in all new light vehicles by 2029 and what impact this mandate will have on the development of autonomous vehicles.While the mandate doesn't specifically require LiDAR, Dr. Markel believes a radar+camera sensor fusion approach will likely be the dominant solution that automakers implement to meet this new regulation. He sees the mandate as a positive for wider adoption of radar, but doubts it will spur major radar technology breakthroughs since full autonomy (SAE Level 4) remains the real driver of sensor advancement.During the conversation, Dr. Markel raised concerns about the potential unintended consequences that the mandate could cause, such an increase in "false alarm" brake activations from the AEB systems detecting non-threats because of interference. If a driver finds the system not to be functioning correctly, the regulation restricts automakers from allowing drivers to disable the AEB system, which could create towing/repair headaches if the system suffers a failure. While the mandate aims to save lives, Dr. Markel argues the safety benefits will be small compared to the potential of full autonomy. He advises autonomy companies to "run their own race" and not be distracted by this regulation from their core SAE L4 missions which offer vastly greater safety upsides.Recorded on Tuesday, June 11, 2024Episode Chapters0:00 NHTSA AEB Mandate4:24 Radar Data Generation9:09 AEB Battery Draw12:49 Integrating Radar into a Vehicle Design 15:15 L3 vs L4 Debate24:26 Is the AEB Mandate a Distraction to L4 Goals?31:59 Unintended Consequences of AEB Mandate41:49 Impact of Slowing EV Sales on AEB Mandate42:57 Key Takeaways --------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Joanna Buttler, Head of the Global Autonomous Technology Group, Daimler Truck North America joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the introduction of the autonomous battery electric Freightliner eCascadia demonstrator, Daimler’s 2027 autonomous truck commercial launch and the company’s vision for the future of autonomous trucking. 2027 will be a pivotal year for Daimler Truck as the company commences commercial operations. In just under 3 years, Daimler Truck will be in the market offering SAE Level 4 autonomous trucking solutions to their customers. It’s a journey that started in 2019 when Daimler Truck went “all in” on autonomy, driven by the immense potential to solve major challenges like driver shortages and enable 24/7 freight movement for their customers. Daimler Truck’s vision for autonomy is an ambitious one that leverages their decades of experience and translates it into autonomous-ready commercial trucks. While the excitement today is around battery electric trucks, Daimler is taking a propulsion-agnostic approach, aiming to integrate their autonomous driving systems seamlessly across diesel, electric, and potentially hydrogen fuel cell platforms. Daimler’s goal is to provide their customers with the ultimate flexibility to deploy autonomous trucks optimized for different use cases, lanes and routes.Underpinning Daimler’s autonomous strategy is an absolute commitment to safety and doing it “the right way” by factory-installing production-ready systems and not relying on retrofits. Joanna is optimistic that Daimler Truck’s manufacturing prowess, established sales/service networks, and decades building customer trust will be key competitive advantages.Looking ahead to 2030, Joanna sees consolidation in the autonomous trucking market, but with Daimler aiming for a decisive market leadership position leveraging their traditional truck expertise, production capabilities, partners, and established dealer network. As autonomy scales, autonomous trucking could potentially become larger than Daimler Truck’s traditional business.Recorded on Friday, May 24, 2024Episode Chapters0:00 Autonomous Battery Electric Freightliner eCascadia Demonstrator4:53 The Role of Dealers6:46 Autonomous Truck Maintenance 8:59 Propulsion Agnostic 15:20 Infrastructure as a Catalyst 17:40 Autonomy Success Metrics20:47 New Autonomous Trucks?23:10 Daimler Truck’s Passion for Autonomy25:26 Why 2027?27:13 Factory Grade Autonomous Trucks28:57 Autonomy in 202731:05 Future of Daimler Truck--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Matt McLelland, VP of Sustainability and Innovation, Covenant joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss why certain trucking companies aversion to risk could slow down innovation and have negative economic consequences on their businesses if they delay the rollout of autonomous trucks.This is a thought-provoking, unstructured yet insightful conversation about the complex relationship between risk aversion and the development of autonomous vehicles and autonomous trucks. During the conversation, Grayson and Matt explore how society’s growing fear of risk is stifling progress in the autonomous trucking industry, drawing parallels to historical examples of transformative innovations such as the space program and the development of the airplane that may have never come to fruition in today’s risk-averse climate.Throughout the discussion, Grayson and Matt grapple with the multifaceted nature of risk perception, from individual responsibilities to the role of tort law and media sensationalism. They argue that the disproportionate attention given to rare autonomous vehicle accidents, coupled with a litigious environment, is creating an atmosphere of fear that threatens to slow the adoption of this life-saving technology that will have positive economic benefits.The conversation also delves into the economic implications of risk aversion, with Grayson asserting that the rising costs associated with insurance and legal liability are becoming a significant burden for companies pioneering autonomous trucks and vehicles. Matt shares his firsthand experience with these challenges at Covenant Logistics, highlighting the need for tort reform and a shift in public perception.Despite the obstacles, both Matt and Grayson remain optimistic about the future of autonomous vehicles and trucks. They emphasize the importance of personal responsibility, education, and a willingness to embrace calculated risks in order to continue pushing the boundaries of innovation. The episode concludes with a call to action, urging listeners to recognize their own role in shaping societal attitudes towards risk and to support the brave innovators who are working to create a safer, more efficient future through autonomous technologies.Recorded on Thursday, May 16, 2024Episode Chapters0:00 Risk26:27 Fear30:54 Managing Risk32:25 Conquering the Fear of Risk41:32 Key Takeaways--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Harry Campbell aka The Rideshare Guy joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the potential of Tesla entering the rideshare market both with human driven vehicles and autonomous vehicles. In a wide-ranging discussion, Grayson and Harry touch on several key topics surrounding Tesla’s potential entry into the rideshare market and how those moves could affect the overall market. As Tesla explores potentially entering the market, the company’s brand appeal and the millions of vehicles already on the road give them a potential edge, especially once Tesla achieves full self-driving (FSD).Throughout the episode, Grayson and Harry provide insightful analysis and predictions about the future of the rideshare industry, highlighting the technological advancements and strategic decisions that will shape its evolution.Looking ahead, Harry sees two major factors shaping rideshare’s future outside of Tesla: the rollout of robotaxis, and a new generation forgoing car ownership and relying more heavily on Uber and micro-mobility options such as e-bikes. Despite challenges such as rising insurance costs, he remains optimistic about the industry’s prospects as personal car ownership potentially declines.Recorded on Tuesday, May 14, 2024Episode Chapters0:00 Tesla Rideshare Market2:32 FSD 126:44 The Hybrid Network (Human Driven Vehicles and Robotaxis)13:51 Rising Insurance Premiums 19:15 Tesla Ridehail Network33:45 Economics of the Uber Platform37:02 What if Tesla Bought Lyft?43:06 Tesla Subscription Service47:14 Future of Rideshare--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The skyrocketing costs of commercial vehicle insurance in the trucking industry is a pressing issue that is causing economic harm. Commercial insurance premiums rose a staggering 9.8% in Q1 2024, driven by three main factors: the proliferation of nuclear verdicts over $10 million, a shortage of experienced drivers, and inflated vehicle repair costs. Nuclear verdicts, with an average of $33.8 million, have made insurance unaffordable for many smaller fleets, forcing them into bankruptcy. The current macroeconomic environment, with high inflation, rising insurance premiums, and increasing regulatory costs, is creating a “perfect storm” that could accelerate the adoption of autonomous trucks. Lee White, Founder & President of LM White Consulting joined The Road to Autonomy Founder Grayson Brulte discuss the impact insurance rates and nuclear verdicts are having on the trucking industry and why autonomous trucking could be the solution. Recorded on Friday, May 17 2024Episode Chapters0:00 Skyrocketing Commercial Insurance Costs 3:31 Nuclear Verdicts 8:54 High Insurance are Helping to Usher in Autonomous Trucking 12:23 Future of The Trucking Industry--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Paul Gioupis, Founder & CEO, Zeem Solutions joined Grayson Brulte on The Autonomy Economy podcast to discuss the economics of electrifying commercial fleets and the current state of the electric commercial fleet market.As the global push for sustainability intensifies, the trucking industry faces immense pressure to transition towards zero-emission solutions. However, the path to electrification is riddled with economic challenges, regulatory and operational complexities. As society shifts to electrification, there is a growing global taxation effort underway to fill the estimated $110 billion dollar fuel tax shortfall by 2025 that is being caused by the switch to electric from oil.Paul candidly addresses the potential $110 billion fuel tax shortfall that is projected by 2025. The potential fuel tax shortfall highlights the need for solutions that strike a balance between environmental goals and economic feasibility. Drawing from his Wall Street background and a deep understanding of economics and how to scale a profitable business. Throughout the conversation, Paul discuss Zeem’s bold approach to tackling the electrification conundrum. From meticulously mapping customer demand through 1.8 million fleet phone calls, to strategically selecting locations based on origin, destination, and energy accessibility, Zeem implemented a data-driven strategy.Recognizing the software glitches and inferior products plaguing the EV market, Paul calls for a consumer-centric approach, where vehicles must stand on their own merits – delivering superior performance, range, and cost-effectiveness. He emphasizes the need for ground-up EV designs, challenging traditional OEMs to raise their game and innovate beyond mere compliance.Looking ahead, Paul envisions Zeem’s depots as future micro-grids, seamlessly integrating with the existing utility infrastructure while alleviating grid stress through distributed energy solutions. With a steadfast focus on economics, scalability, and operational excellence, Zeem is poised to lead the charge in reshaping the trucking industry’s electrified future.Recorded on Wednesday, May 8, 2024Episode Chapters0:00 Global Budget Shortfalls Caused by Electrification 3:43 Operational Efficiency of the Zeem Business8:38 Zeem’s Business Model16:57 Zeem Locations22:34 Electrification of Fleets 34:55 U.S. Highway Trust Fund37:58 Opportunities for Electrification 41:55 Key Takeaways--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Aaron Ticknor, Product Manager, Large Ag Autonomy, John Deere joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the future of autonomous tractors on farms. Farming has remained one of humanity’s most essential endeavors since the dawn of civilization. But in the 21st century, a technological revolution is transforming traditional farming — autonomy. At the forefront of this transformation is Deere & Company, an agricultural powerhouse pioneering the future of autonomous tractors. We go behind the scenes with Deere to explore their trailblazing work in autonomous tractors and what the positive impacts will be for implementing full autonomy across the farming cycle. From tilling and planting to crop management and harvesting, Deere is developing autonomous solutions that are increasing efficiency, optimizing yields, and helping farmers do more with less.We’ll dive deep into the cutting-edge technology making this possible, like advanced perception systems, artificial intelligence, robotics, and machine learning models that allow Deere tractors to navigate fields without a human operator. Deere is creating entire autonomous ecosystems, with cloud-based monitoring, control systems, data analytics, and more — providing farmers a degree of oversight, optimization and decision-making capabilities never before possible.You’ll learn how autonomous farming technology is poised to solve major challenges facing global agriculture – from labor shortages to supply chain vulnerabilities to the imperative of feeding a growing population. Deere’s autonomous solutions represent the future of feeding the world sustainably.Whether you’re a farmer, technologist, or someone passionate about world-changing innovation, this podcast offers a fascinating look at the autonomous farming revolution underway. Join us as we explore how Deere is driving this transformative shift and delivering on the promise of smarter, more productive, and more sustainable agriculture.Recorded on Wednesday May 1, 2024Episode Chapters0:00 Deere Approach to Autonomy2:33 Deploying Autonomy on Farms6:57 Deere’s Autonomous Perception System10:32 Why Deere Embraced Autonomy13:38 Deere’s Autonomy Business19:28 Autonomous Deere Tractors24:52 Future of Deere--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In 2019, the U.S. Department of Transportation (US DOT) issued guidance through their AV 3.0 framework that specifically stated that going forward, federal trucking regulations from the FMCSA will no longer assume that a commercial vehicle driver must be a human present in the vehicle. This cleared the way for self-driving trucks to operate legally, as long as they comply with existing trucking regulations.Dan Goff, Director of External Affairs, Kodiak Robotics joined The Road to Autonomy Founder Grayson Brulte to discuss the current regulatory landscape for autonomous trucks in the United States.While in the long-term there will need to be new regulations crafted specifically for autonomous trucking, in the near-term, the existing rules provide a sufficient framework to begin deploying autonomous trucks in a compliant manner. Today, there are only a handful of regulations that don't neatly apply, and the industry has been working to solve those lingering issues.One key regulatory hurdle that Kodiak has worked on was developing an enhanced inspection program with the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) that enables autonomous trucks to demonstrate an elevated level of vehicle safety checks compared to today's methods. Enhanced inspections have helped build confidence with law enforcement around autonomous trucking deployments.Today, 25 U.S. States have passed laws enabling and regulating autonomous vehicle deployments, further validating their legal ability to operate autonomous trucks complying with applicable regulations.While the patchwork of differing state laws is manageable currently, Dan believes eventually there will need to be a unified national regulatory framework governing autonomous trucking to enable broad interstate operations. But, the existing legal foundations for autonomous trucking deployments are in place today.Recorded on Wednesday, May 15, 2024Episode Chapters0:00 Current State of Autonomous Trucking Regulations3:28 Enhanced Inspections8:52 Evolving Autonomous Trucking Regulatory Landscape11:48 Autonomous Trucking Misconceptions--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Pete Bigelow, Senior Reporter, Automotive News joined Grayson Brulte on The Autonomy Economy podcast to discuss Tesla’s robotaxi gamble and the prospects for Tesla to license FSD. In this wide-ranging conversation, Grayson and Pete dive into the bold promises and ambitious plans surrounding Tesla’s bid to launch CyberCab and a robotaxi service. As Tesla prepares to unveil more details on August 8th, they analyze what it could mean for the future of autonomy and mobility.Grayson and Pete explore whether Tesla will actually show two separate vehicle models — one with traditional controls (potentially the Model 2) and a fully autonomous version without a steering wheel or pedals. The big questions linger: When will Cybercab realistically deploy commercially? And just how good will the self-driving technology be when it is first deployed?The rise of Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions has sparked concerns about being Uber being potentially disrupted. But making the economics work with such an expensive vehicle platform remains a huge challenge. Could a Tesla subscription service bundled with incentives make a Tesla robotaxi more accessible?As the conversation evolves, Grayson and Pete also analyze the strategic options for established automakers and if they should consider licensing Tesla’s self-driving software. Or should they choose to develop their own systems with Nvidia and Qualcomm? Or pursue potential licensing agreements with Cruise, Waymo or Zoox? Zoox is interesting as the company is planning to launch service in Las Vegas which gives the company unique opportunities to embrace Vegas and create “experiences” such as mobile gambling in partnership with casinos.Ultimately, the road to Tesla deploying commercial robotaxis at scale remains riddled with technological, regulatory and business model hurdles. But with Tesla all-in on the robotaxi future, the stakes are escalating for the entire auto industry to map out its autonomy strategy.Recorded on Friday, April 26, 2024 Episode Chapters0:10 Tesla CyberCab2:20 Tesla Mobility Platform5:14 Tesla Subscription Platform19:55 Camera Only23:30 Licensing FSD35:10 Licensing Cruise, Waymo, Zoox38:39 NVIDIA & Qualcomm41:05 Zoox & Casinos --------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Josip Cesic, CEO & Co-Founder, Gideon joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the transformation that the warehouse logistics industry is undergoing driven by an urgent need for increased efficiency and automation. Labor shortages are rampant, with younger generations showing less interest in roles such as forklift driving. Gideon’s autonomous forklifts which are deployed to load and unload trailers achieve a return on investment within 1-3 years by maintaining or increasing throughput compared to manual operations. Gideon’s compelling unit economics, combined with soaring labor costs and challenges in attracting workers, is propelling major companies such as Walmart, Loblaw, DHL, and FedEx to double down on warehouse automation.Josip explains how Gideon retrofits off-the-shelf forklifts with its autonomy kit comprising sensors including LiDAR and cameras, enabling safe and efficient autonomous trailer loading/unloading. As the technology scales, further cost reductions are anticipated through optimized computing solutions.As Gideon scales, Josip sees autonomous trailer loading/unloading as merley just the starting point, The big goal is to fundamentally reimagine the entire supply chain through autonomy. During the conversation, Josip stresses the importance of thinking several steps ahead and forming strategic partnerships, as early successes attract fierce competition in this blossoming market.Ultimately, Josip emphasizes that while robotics plays a pivotal role, the true bet is on people – adopting, driving, and benefiting from the revolutionary efficiencies that autonomous solutions will unlock across industries facing existential labor challenges.Recorded on Monday, April 15, 2024 Episode Chapters0:09 Warehouse Automation Outlook8:15 Warehouse Automation Market Evolving Over Next Decade 14:40 Gideon Autonomous Forklifts26:26 Global Autonomous Forklift Markets 31:10 Future of Gideon--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.