Climate scenario analysis: Getting to grips with a post-1.5C world

It is now a matter of broad consensus that the world will overshoot its 1.5C temperature goal, but that does not mean there is nothing to be optimistic about, according to climate finance expert Jakob Thomä. He should know a thing or two about this topic. Thomä led the development of the first climate scenario analysis tool at 2 Degrees Investing Initiative and currently leads a think tank which makes predictions about future climate policy. He is also a professor in practice at SOAS and maintains a column here at RI. He joins the latest episode of The Responsible Investor Podcast to talk about AI, why continued demand for oil might not translate into emissions, and why modelling social factors is "super crazy difficult".

It’s been just over one month since the European Commission announced its much-anticipated sustainability Omnibus plans, which would heavily water down the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) and EU Taxonomy. The EU executive wants the changes to be approved and implemented at a very quick pace, and much has already happened since the February announcement. In this episode, senior reporter Fiona McNally – who has been on the ground in Brussels – talks to deputy editor Elza Holmstedt Pell about recent developments and initial reactions to the proposals ahead of some of the big negotiations expected in April. Drawing on conversations with sources close to the process, the discussion will dig into the details of the CSRD corporate disclosure framework and how its data points could be “significantly reduced”, as well as what investors will miss out on and how they’ve responded to the Commission’s plans.

In recent years, corporates have increasingly been trying to work out how to approach nature reporting. How has the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) aided firms in their efforts? And what are the initial insights from Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) reports regarding how corporates are approaching ESRS E4 Biodiversity and ecosystems? Stephanie Hime, founder and managing director of sustainability-focused consultancy Little Blue Research, is well placed to explore these questions. She helped develop the Capitals Coalition’s natural capital protocol and sector guides, and is also the project lead for the International Organisation for Standardisation’s standard on natural capital accounting. In this episode, Hime sits down with RI’s nature reporter, Gina Gambetta, to explore how corporates have been evolving their approach to nature reporting, what resources are available to help those getting started, and what key developments they should be aware of.

Asset owners across the UK, Europe and US are sharpening their focus on asset manager stewardship, and an increasing regulatory focus on stewardship outcomes and transition-focused products is leading investors to think harder about how they can demonstrate that their own engagements are having an effect. Jennifer Walmsley, associate director for corporate engagement at the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change (IIGCC), has more than two decades of experience in the area, having run the engagement team at EOS at Federated Hermes and headed up investor engagement for the Financial Reporting Council. She now oversees IIGCC's corporate engagements, including Climate Action 100+, the Net Zero Engagement Initiative and Nature Action 100. In this episode, Walmsley discusses how investors can measure the impact of their engagements, how to ensure engagement is a value add for company and investor alike, and how IIGCC is aiming to turn ineffective engagements at the collaborative initiatives it looks after into effective ones.

Global investments in renewable energy reached a new record of more than $700 billion in 2024, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. But this year has brought uncertainty and challenges on many fronts, perhaps most notably from the new Trump administration. The good news is that uncertainty is something the sector is used to, says Jérôme Guillet, co-founder of renewables advisory firm Snow, and there are many bright spots. At a time when oil and gas firms continue to roll back on their clean energy objectives, Guillet – who also writes a blog where he shares his views on energy policy and industry developments – explains why this is not a bad thing and he outlines how other major players like utilities are faring in the space. Other key topics include the potentially overestimated role of new nuclear, decarbonisation in hard-to-abate sectors, and to what extent sustainable finance regulations help drive green investment.

Net-zero as a concept is under pressure, and for investors to assess the best path forward, it is crucial to understand how companies and other holdings are managing this – and what efforts they are undertaking to navigate the transition. This is what the Transition Pathway Initiative (TPI) has helped investors with since its inception in 2017. Carmen Nuzzo, the executive director of TPI’s academic centre, tells The Responsible Investor Podcast there are notable developments in what investors are asking for to help guide their investment and engagement activities. Nuzzo talks to RI deputy editor Elza Holmstedt Pell about where the companies that the TPI Centre assesses are improving and where there are blind spots. She also discusses the increasing focus on emerging and developing economies and her view on the global regulatory rollback, as well as the rising use of AI in climate reporting, the next steps for transition plans and the TPI Centre’s research expansion plans.

With big asset managers rushing to exit climate initiatives and ESG opponents taking centre stage in the US, responsible investment is under scrutiny as never before. What does this mean for up-and-coming asset owners with sustainability ambitions? This is a key question for Dan Mikulskis, CIO of People's Partnership, one of the fastest-growing workplace pension providers in the UK. In this episode, he talks to RI editor Lucy Fitzgeorge-Parker about how sustainability fits into the investment strategy of People's Partnership. The discussion explores the evolution of responsible investment over the past 10 years, from a neglected niche to the heady days of 2021, followed by political backlash and a tighter focus on impact and implementation. Key topics include the challenges of devising a responsible investment policy, asset owners' response to ESG rollbacks by asset managers, and the opportunities for pension funds to leverage their influence to drive the sustainability agenda.

Three years ago, in the run-up to COP26, financial institutions rushed to sign up to the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ). A renewed focus on fiduciary duty, however, combined with concerns about the real-world impact of reducing portfolio emissions, is now prompting asset managers to rethink strategies and methodologies for net zero. Daisy Streatfeild has seen the issue from both sides of the fence. In 2021, she helped set up the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative (NZAM) during her time at the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change (IIGCC). Today, as sustainability director at emerging markets-focused asset manager Ninety One, she is grappling with how to ensure net zero remains relevant from the industry perspective. In this episode, she talks to RI editor Lucy Fitzgeorge-Parker about the heady days of NZAM’s founding, the recent high-profile departure of Baillie Gifford from the initiative, and how investors can meet the needs of both clients and the climate. Key topics also include transition finance, climate adaptation and the challenges of net zero in emerging markets.

After an autumn of devastating floods in Florida, Spain and southern Italy, the need to protect populations from the impacts of climate change has shot up the agenda for policymakers. Nature can play a crucial role in climate adaptation, from protecting coastlines from rising sea levels to slowing or reducing water run-off upstream of urban centres. In this episode, veteran investor Eoin Murray talks to RI editor Lucy Fitzgeorge-Parker about the opportunities for developing "natural infrastructure" in the UK. Key topics include the challenges of mobilising large-scale investment for nature restoration, how to ensure buy-in from farmers and landowners, and the need for policy support.

The global UN biodiversity summit delivered on the buzz – and had a huge private sector turnout. The overall outcomes, however, have been widely described as “a mixed bag” on the positive end of the scale, while many called it underwhelming. But investors did not leave Cali empty handed, with a flurry of announcements on nature transition plans, investment products, collective engagements and many discussions on scaling up private finance to help meet global biodiversity targets. In this episode, nature reporter Gina Gambetta talks to deputy editor Elza Holmstedt Pell about key developments for investors and shares insights from conversations with many of the market participants on the ground at COP16. The conversation also highlights what responsible investor community delegates thought was missing from the discussions. For example, several market participants RI spoke to thought they were too focused on disclosures.