Emerging markets debt: trends opportunities and risks

In early September 2024, the European Commission published the long-awaited ‘The future of European competitiveness: Report by Mario Draghi', which examines in detail the challenges faced by European industry and companies in the single market. OMFIF lead economist Taylor Pearce hosts Bill Papadakis, macro strategist at Lombard Odier, to discuss the structural and macro trends the EU economy is contending with and how these are impacting key areas of the economy and financial system.

One of the major structural factors impacting government financing is the massive scale of public money needed to ensure the transition to a carbon neutral economy. How are trends in government debt issuance evolving as they relate to sustainability? Alex Caridia, head of public sector markets at RBC and Heather Taylor, partner, climate change and sustainability at EY, join OMFIF lead economist Taylor Pearce to discuss. The conversation is a part of OMFIF’s workstream on the Future of public money project. 

At present, in most jurisdictions, only commercial banks are able to provide final settlement of payments as the only institutions with access to central bank reserves. However, new business models have emerged that unbundle the business of creating money and payment services from the provision of credit. Should payments be unbundled from banking? Circle's chief economist Gordon Liao and OMFIF's Digital Monetary Institute editor Lewis McLellan discuss the regulatory treatment of stablecoins and consider which institutions can access central bank payment systems and under what conditions.

Around a third of the world lack reliable internet access and among the two thirds that have access, disruptions and restrictions are far from unknown. Ensuring that digital payments solutions are reliable and have the broadest reach possible requires that they can function offline. Though the need is well understood, the challenges of meeting it remain. Lars Hupel, G+D's chief evangelist, joins OMFIF's Digital Monetary Institute editor Lewis McLellan to discuss how offline capabilities enhance the effectiveness and convenience of online payment methods and share G+D's experience in this field.

Christopher Smart, former senior US Treasury and National Security Council official and managing partner of Arbroath Group, joins OMFIF's US chair Mark Sobel, to discuss the economic plans of presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. They compare the candidates' differences on fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, trade and immigration policies. 

Omar Massarweh, vice president of public policy for the Middle East and North Africa at Mastercard, joins Arunima Sharan, senior economist at OMFIF to discuss key findings from the ‘Path to Morocco’ project completed by OMFIF in partnership with Mastercard, aimed at fostering public-private dialogue and ensuring that financial inclusion remains at the core of future economies. Their conversation touches on the alignment of current financial systems with the World Economic Forum's shared principles for an inclusive financial system and the areas with the greatest potential for improvement. They also explore how emerging technologies can enhance financial inclusion, the role of financial institutions in catalysing innovation and successful examples of public-private collaborations in the region.

Jeremy Cunningham, investment director at Capital Group, speaks with Arunima Sharan, senior economist at OMFIF to discuss the latest trends in emerging markets debt. They explore the re-emergence of these markets in investors' minds and how perceptions of EM debt have shifted in recent years. The conversation covers current and future opportunities in this local and hard currency EM bonds, factors contributing to higher return potential, and associated risks. OMFIF’s Q3 Bulletin on emerging markets can be found here

Vlad Rashkovan, Ukraine's representative to the International Monetary Fund, joins Mark Sobel, OMFIF’s US chair, to provide an update on Ukraine's economic and financial situation. They assess the country's progress in implementing economic reforms despite the war and the hardships facing Ukraine's people. They explore how Ukraine is using both domestic resources and international financing to maintain stability, and Rashkovan gives his views on the disposition of blocked Russian central bank and oligarch assets, the fight against corruption and reconstruction. 

Max Castelli, head of strategy, sovereign institutions at UBS asset management, and Philipp Salman, also on the team at UBS, speak with OMFIF Lead Economist Taylor Pearce to discuss the latest observable trends in central bank reserve management. They discuss investment strategies, currency and asset allocations and the factors influencing reserve managers’ investment decisions in the current macroenvironment, which UBS have been tracking for 30 years now. OMFIF's 2024 GPI report on central bank reserve management is available here.    The views expressed are as of July 2024 and are those of the author and not necessarily the views of UBS Asset Management. This podcast is a marketing communication and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell securities or any particular strategy or fund. Information and opinions have been provided in good faith and are subject to change without notice.

With the proliferation in artificial intelligence development, the landscape for fraud is changing rapidly. The technology represents a tool for both fraudsters and those whose job it is to catch them. Liyun He Guelton, senior AI researcher, and Claire Deprez, head of product management at Worldline, joined Lewis McLellan, Digital Monetary Institute editor, to discuss the new threats AI poses in enabling fraud, and the tools that Worldline is developing to thwart them.