158: AI Unleashed: Scott Guthrie of Microsoft, on Transforming Productivity, Finance, Energy, and Regulation

Technological revolutions are by their nature rare events: the printing press, mobile telephony and the internet. The associated excitement can capture the imagination, spur a raft of associated breakthroughs, encourage investors to dream of extraordinary returns, yet their byproduct is often to create excessive short-term exuberance, and expectations that might be correct in time, but invariably expect too much, too soon. Scott Guthrie understands this space better than most, being a Microsoft lifer who has been at the epicentre of their success in Cloud and now AI, overseeing the development of both the Azure and Copilot products. Alongside Simon, the discussion is co-hosted by Rob Rooney.  Rob is the former CEO of Morgan Stanley International and was their Global Head of Technology and Operations. He now runs two fintech firms: HyperJar and Hyperlayer. Scott begins by explaining why investors & business alike should look beyond the typical 1-2 year timelines used in common AI narratives, and instead examine the potential 5-10 year outlook for the technology. He then shares some practical examples of how AI may cut costs & boost productivity for finance firms, why they’ve partnered with LSEG, and their reasons for building a staggering 500 new data centres globally! In the wide ranging interview recorded at the LSEG Tech Leaders Summit ,he covers the central questions surrounding AI: Is it really a new game changer? How will it play out? Will regulation stifle or stimulate progress? How does it recalibrate productivity? Do we even have the electricity to support it? And how is AI being integrated into the burgeoning cloud industry?  ​​The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored bySchroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. We’re pleased to now announce our fourth sponsor: LSEG! Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube

Four years ago we had the chance to record a US election special ahead of the vote to determine whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump became President. We welcomed Anthony Scaramucci; Harvard Law, Goldman Sachs, political fundraiser and, for 11 dramatic days, Donald Trump‘s Director of Communications. Since then he has developed his finance business, run the SALT conferences, been a crypto evangelist and in addition - possibly inspired by his experience on the Money Maze Podcast - has become the co-host of the Rest is Politics US with Katy Kay (a high quality show which we recommend).  In this conversation he discusses Trump, including some candid thoughts on his character and what may lie ahead if he wins.  He then assesses the question of immigration, and if this election “will decide whether we continue to lead on freedom, economic innovation and multilateralism”. He assesses why crypto should rise tenfold, how the debt challenge could be addressed, how he has managed setbacks and what resilience means to him, all with a ton of energy! ​​The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council.

This recording took place at the London Value Investor Conference over summer, where Simon hosted a discussion with Joel Greenblatt. Joel not only founded and runs Gotham Asset Management, but was also an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School for 20+ years. Joel previously ran Gotham Capital, where he achieved 50% annualised returns between 1985-1994 (34.4% net). Joel also helped Michael Burry set up Scion Capital in 2000. In this discussion, Joel offers some exceptionally valuable insights into the issues of active versus passive, if valuation works pays, the need for patience, thoughts on concentration, and learning from mistakes. He talks on the need for detailed valuation work in order to identify compelling valuation opportunities, but also of the need for patience for the market to recognise such situations. He advocates passive for those ill-equipped to undertake detailed valuation work, and also recognises the challenges of owning too many overvalued and insufficient undervalued companies when you are passively invested.  He then explains how the best way to learn from one’s investing mistakes is to lose amounts of money that matter. Joel goes on to acknowledge that he would have been fired several times over, had it not been his own firm! A treasure trove of advice from a pro! The interview is followed by a short Q&A. Thanks to the following for their contributions here: Steve Clapham of Behind the Balance Sheet, Mark Rubenstein of HPS Investment Partners, Ajit Dayal of Quantum Advisors India, and Cole Smead of Smead Capital Management. ​​The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors, and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube

Today we travel back to Melbourne, Australia, having had previous conversations with Ben Samild (now CIO of the AFF) & David Neal (CEO of IFM Investors).  AustralianSuper, Australia’s largest super fund, manages approximately USD $230bn for 3.4m members. Mark Delaney has been at its helm as CIO for almost 20 years.  Mark describes the goals, the organisation and its investment principles. He explains why Australia consolidated its pension industry and the benefits it has reaped for pensioners and the economy. He discusses approaching global equities, why infrastructure is the “ballast in the boat”, his favourable view of private equity and why he likes active over passive. He also covers how he accesses commodity exposure, and why you can’t worry about the markets when he’s on his surfboard trying to catch a wave! ​​The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube

Sovereign wealth funds, private equity, Hollywood actors; the world of sports has been undergoing an investing revolution.  The last few years have seen a quantum increase of new investors, investing both in sports and even their governing bodies, raising questions about potential returns, the investment thesis and competition. Arctos is one of world’s largest sports investors, counting amongst its investments, with 20+ portfolio companies, including: Baseball’s Boston Red Sox, Liverpool FC, Paris St. Germain, Atalanta,  New York Giants, and recently Aston Martin’s F1 racing team.   In this episode, Ian Charles, trained in the world of illiquid private investments and secondaries, discusses the size of the market, the investment logic, competition, regulation, building the brand, using data as well as exits and returns! From North American leagues to European football, he assesses the barriers to entry, the ability for growth capital to raise growth rates, historic returns, minority stakes, and how the fans impacted by these epochal changes. ​​The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube

In an interview we had especially looked forward to, and with the Credit Suisse acquisition behind us, the MMP went to Zurich to talk to Colm Kelleher. Described as one of the most influential and capable banking executives of the last several decades, he has been dubbed by the FT as 'Europe’s most powerful banker'. As Chairman of the UBS board, he helps manage an organisation with approximately $5.7 trillion in assets, employing 112,000 people. After discussing the early forces that shaped him, he explains why he realised US banks were better placed to outgun their UK rivals, why he joined Morgan Stanley, and the journey to CFO and President. He discusses the brutal intensity of fighting to keep Morgan Stanley alive from following Lehman, and the emotional scars it left. Colm describes the attraction of UBS, the preparation that made the Credit Suisse deal work in such an orderly manner as well as the business, the brand, and its position today. He explains what culture means to him, Europe’s position in financial services, disintermediation, and the likely shape of banking going forward and why banks shouldn’t seek to be entrepreneurial. ​​The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube

Thought-provoking, amusing, self-critical, rich with anecdotes, laced with good advice, and large servings of humility, you might not automatically assume I’m describing the book, titled 'On Leadership', just published and written by Sir Tony Blair. The discussion starts with the essential need for a leader to identify the priorities, to determine the plan, and to pursue its execution. Sir Tony Blair discusses meeting roadblocks and responses, and why the leader must stay resolute. He then opines on international affairs today; including thoughts on China, India, Russia and the Middle East. He covers higher education, lessons from Singapore’s ‘economic miracle’, and the challenges of immigration.  He shares perspectives from the Tony Blair Institute, which today advises over 40 countries, how technology can promote major leaps forward, reasons for optimism, why humility is key and why there’s no substitute for hard work! ​​The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube

Simon introduces Cliff Asness, Co-Founder and CIO of AQR (Applied Quantitative Research), highlighting the firm's systematic approach to investing in a variety of assets. Cliff Asness shared his background, mentioning that he was initially an underachiever in school but transitioned to a highly driven person during college at the University of Pennsylvania. He explained that market efficiency is a spectrum, and even Fama admitted that markets are not perfectly efficient, despite what many might assume. Discussing current markets, Asness emphasized the importance of global diversification and noted that the U.S.'s prolonged outperformance mostly stemmed from its increasing valuation premium over international markets. He highlighted "volatility laundering" in private assets, where the infrequent marking of private investments creates an illusion of lower volatility, cautioning that this could lead to misinformed investment decisions. Asness touched on philanthropy, saying he finds joy in charitable giving despite the difficulty in assessing the best use of funds and mentioned the importance of concentrating philanthropy for more impact. ​​ The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn  | Watch on YouTube

In this episode we have the huge pleasure and privilege to talk to General Sir Patrick Sanders, who until June of this year served as Chief of the General Staff. As the professional head of the British Army he had responsibility for over 100,000 troops (including reserves), steering this key component of the UK’s defence apparatus through an increasingly fractured world. The mission in this interview is to orchestrate a rapid and highly effective tour of the key challenges on the minds of politicians, populations and the planet.  Patrick discusses Russia and assessing what next, China and how a peaceful co-existence can operate, as well as Iran, Israel & The Middle East; weighing up if a brighter future here is possible. He then covers North Korea and its unpredictability, as it moves from defense to offense. The General goes on to enlighten us on cyber threats, AI’s role on the battlefield, leadership & motivation, before answering some challenging questions from his peers and (possible) friends! General Sanders joins a wider squadron of Money Maze Podcast geopolitics speakers, such as General Petraeus, General Sir Nick Carter & Lieutenant General Sir Tom Beckett! ​​The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders,IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube

This episode comes from the SuperReturn conference in Berlin, with guest Victor Khosla, Founder of SVP. Set up in 2001, the firm manages $18 billion in credit, with an impressive long-term track record in identifying credit opportunities. Victor describes himself as the ‘Accidental Investor’, initially hired as a strategic consultant for a Citibank project in the 1990s, only then to join them to help develop their credit business. He recaps his journey from India through Citi, Cerberus, and Moore Capital, before founding his business with the assisted funding from Moore Capital, to identify and buy out-of-favour debt instruments whether distressed or mispriced. Victor describes today’s markets, the differences between the US and Europe, opportunities that are emerging from private equity indigestion and reduced exits, allied to significant refinancing needs. As the owner of Swissport, the world’s largest baggage handler, he recounts their post-COVID purchase and the debt/equity swap, and where ownership of the debt in this - and many other instances - means a further need for involvement on the business operations side. ​​The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube