Ramin Nakisa: The 90/10 Portfolio Strategy Every Investor Should Know

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Ramin Nakisa to the show. Ramin is the co-founder of PensionCraft, a service that's geared toward providing members with the tools and information needed to make their own informed investing decisions.   Ramin kicks things off by explaining his reason for switching from a global equity portfolio to a fixed equity 60/40 portfolio. He says that after spending years investing and building up to his retirement goal, he wanted to take as much risk and volatility off the table as possible and just coast off the fixed income. And while folks tend to paint fixed income with a broad stroke, he says that it's actually nuanced. With multiple facets and sectors within fixed equity, there are noteworthy investments to consider. Ramin also gives a deep dive on the purpose of PensionCraft and what he wants members to take away from his service. (0:00)   Next, Ramin details why folks should get the "big picture" of the financial news and reports rather than try to delve into every nitty-gritty detail. Then he has a deep discussion on the Federal Reserve. While the speeches might be technical, he thinks investors can glean some insight. He also finds it interesting from a British perspective that American investors are more willing to lend money to "dot-com businesses" than to the U.S. government (by buying government bonds). While at the moment they might have moats, eventually competitors will undercut them and take their positions. And he gives his take on "passive" investing, saying that while more passive investors are emerging, there's no need to be concerned about that hurting the market in the long term. (21:44)   Finally, Ramin shares his thoughts on the hypothetical scenario of the S&P 500 Index crashing 50%. He says that despite the massive fear that it would bring, he sees that as a great buying opportunity. The markets will eventually correct, and anyone who bought during the discount will have made substantial returns. Then Ramin details why he formed his 90/10 core fund asset and his logic behind it. (40:01)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Jason Shapiro back to the show. Jason is the founder of Crowded Market Report and a seasoned futures trader with a proven approach built on exploiting crowd behavior. He has more than 10,000 subscribers on his Substack.   Jason kicks things off by detailing three signals he focuses on when he wants to make a contrarian play against what the market's doing. He executes this strategy by looking for extremes in a bearish position and waits for the market to start heading in the opposite direction before making a short-term trade. But Jason emphasizes that being a contrarian isn't just about betting against the market. To be successful, you have to understand market tone, which is the sentiment that confirms your thesis is correct, and a position has reached its lowest point before it starts improving. But he only makes trades if he likes the potential risk to reward. (0:00)   Next, Jason explains the difference in focus between professional traders and novice traders. The professionals like to focus on risk to mitigate losses, while the novices focus on maximizing profits that they might not even make. And even if they are successful a few times, over the long term, they're going to lose most of the time. And that's why Jason says that you need to know why you're trading. If you know that, you become more disciplined in making trades. Jason then describes how Crowded Market Report has encouraged him to become a better trader. (19:11)   Finally, Jason shares the story of the time he spent living with monks, which gave him some perspective on life. It didn't fully resonate with him at the time, but over the years, he has learned to emphasize happiness over money, and that has given him personal satisfaction in life. He then explains why he decided to run Crowded Market Report by himself and expresses the freedom that brings. He ends things by giving listeners a dire warning about believing that they can outsmart the market. (38:46)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Jim Bianco to the show. Jim is the president of Bianco Research. Since 1990, Jim's commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets.   Jim kicks things off by explaining a post he made on social media platform X, where he stated that bond traders could stop panicking once the Federal Reserve starts to panic. In short, over the past two years, when the Fed was cutting rates to curb inflation, yields on bonds have risen. So Jim believes that bond investors don't need to be worried if the Fed decides to cut rates later this year. He then discusses the dollar's position as the global reserve currency and says that regardless of anyone's plans, it cannot be toppled until another currency exists that can sufficiently replace it. (0:00)   Next, Jim shares why the bond market is the most important market – even if it isn't the most profitable one. He says that it sets the price of money, and every other investment is dependent on that basis for determining value. However, money needs to be priced properly. It cannot be too high or too low, or you'll encounter economic problems. And while Jim doesn't believe that we're currently close to a credit crisis, one could emerge without warning. (20:49)   Finally, Jim reveals his fears about persistent 3% to 4% inflation. He says that the Fed will eventually respond by raising interest rates, which will make money more expensive. Additionally, he believes that economic expansions are "murdered," which is succeeded by a recession and a fundamental change in the economy (a recent example being remote work being a common practice following the COVID-19 pandemic). And Jim says that a lot of folks aren't measuring inflation properly. He says the prices of services should be measured, not goods – and those have been rising rapidly. (36:51)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Harvey Sawikin to the show. Harvey is the co-founder and principal of Firebird Management, a fund that focuses on investing in emerging markets, primarily in Eastern Europe.   Harvey kicks things off by stating that emerging market investors don't pay enough attention to politics compared with macroeconomics. He says that you can glean insight into how a country could develop if you understand its politics, especially in cases where there's new leadership. But it's still important to understand the macroeconomics, as those have been red flags for otherwise promising markets. And he shares why folks would want to invest in emerging markets despite strong growth in American companies. (0:00)   Next, Harvey explains how emerging markets view the dollar. If a country exports commodities, it might not care about the strength of the dollar. Additionally, some exporting countries might prefer to have a slightly weaker currency to look more appealing compared with U.S. companies, so traders use the local currency to invest in these markets. Harvey then gives his background with investing in AI companies (with one that went from $8 a share to $240 a share) and his thoughts on the technology. (22:38)   Finally, Harvey informs listeners that it's OK to be cautious during the AI frenzy. No one knows where the peak of the hype will be, but it might be beneficial to avoid throwing all your money at AI (especially AI companies where you can't even tell what their product is). Harvey believes that patience is the key to successfully navigating the markets, and when everyone is bullish, it's even more crucial. But at the end of the day, it's up to the individual investor – not someone pushing a stock or fund – to determine when they want to get into a position. (40:01)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Brent Johnson back to the show. Brent is the CEO of Puerto Rico-based Santiago Capital and creator of the famous "dollar milkshake theory." He has more than 13,000 subscribers on the Santiago Capital Substack.   Brent kicks things off by expressing his optimism for the U.S. and believes that, despite the supply-chain issues the country is facing, it will make the changes needed to come out of the crisis. That's not to say that there won't be pain along the way, but Brent says it will be better than most people expect. Additionally, he says that criticisms of the U.S. and the dollar are valid, but relative to other countries, they're in a much better position than their peers. And he tells listeners that you can still buy gold without being bearish on the dollar. (0:00)   Next, Brent says that there's no need to be worried about gold overtaking the dollar as a reserve asset in central banks. A key contributor to that has been gold going up while Treasurys have gone down. But Brent's research shows that on a global scale, government bonds have been falling across the board. (The exception is China, due to companies not wanting to buy Chinese stocks or real estate and getting tax breaks from buying Chinese bonds). Brent then explains how the dollar will become broken the stronger it becomes, which would create more pressure on countries that have debt in dollars and could lead to a currency crisis and a great credit reset. And he shows how the U.S. could weaponize the dollar against companies that are indebted to it. (15:08)   Finally, Brent criticizes the mentality that it doesn't matter which fiat currency you're holding, because they're all going to crash. He says that folks who work, own businesses, or have exposure to the geopolitical landscape should care about fiat levels. A sharp rise in one currency compared with another has been a key component in every global financial crisis over the past 50 years. And Brent states that the order of the currency declines matters. Folks who retreat from the market out of fear could be missing out on all the opportunities that happen before a major crash occurs. (34:04)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Rick Rule back to the show. Rick is the president and CEO of Rule Investment Media, which boasts more than 28,000 subscribers on Substack. With nearly 50 years of experience managing investments, primarily in the natural resources sector, Rick is an authority in the field.   Rick kicks things off by providing his long-term view on oil and gas as commodities, as well as his view on oil and gas stocks. He says that while the price of oil could temporarily decline if the conflict in the Middle East reaches a permanent resolution, current prices could be a glimpse of what's in store within the next four years. And according to Rick, many oil and gas companies are "cannibalizing" themselves by directing money away from reinvesting in their businesses and into dividends and share buybacks, which will impact production in the long term. (0:00)   Next, Rick shares his disdain for how government spending and interference have impacted both taxpayers and investors. He personally wrote an e-mail to President Donald Trump to inform him about one of the largest copper deposits in the world just sitting around. It sits on U.S. soil, but we have done nothing to begin production due to regulations. Rick then shares advice for listeners who want to invest during the oil shortage. (22:00)   Finally, Rick explains why "stingy" dividends are beneficial to investors. He goes further and reveals why capital-intensive companies should reinvest in their projects and illustrates why one Brazilian company is set up to disappoint investors who bought shares due to absurdly high dividends. Rick then states that institutional investors have been wrong about oil and gas. Many activists have predicted that fossil fuels will no longer be desired and will soon die out. On the contrary, with the growing need for energy, demand will continue to endure. (37:20)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Matt Franz back to the show. Matt is the founder of Eagle Point Capital, an advisory firm focused on long-term investing. Eagle Point Capital has more than 5,000 subscribers on Substack.   Matt kicks things off by sharing the kinds of companies that he likes to search for. He says that these are "simple, predictable, and profitable" businesses that he can look at over a period of five-plus years and know where they're heading. But even though Matt's firm likes to have a long holding period for its stock picks, the team is constantly assessing and investigating what's occurring with the companies to ensure that they're still worthwhile buys. Matt then begins discussing a vertical market software ("VMS") company he likes. Despite the stock starting to decline following the "SaaSpocalypse" and more recent concerns of AI harming the business, Matt says there's no reason to be afraid. (0:00)   Next, Matt explains why decentralization is one of the biggest strengths for the company. It has about 1,500 business units that operate independently. Management looks at what works and what doesn't and shares the data throughout the rest of the business. But the individual units are still free to evaluate the practices and decide if they're beneficial for that particular unit and can implement them as needed. This allows the company as a whole to constantly innovate and improve itself. Matt then discusses the process this company goes through to make acquisitions. It's able to find bargain deals on smaller, overlooked businesses that can have a dominant role in their respective fields. And with the success that it has had with this strategy, it's leaning more into this method. (20:33)   Finally, Matt presents another company he's fond of. Its focus is mainly on coal royalties, though it also owns soda-ash assets as well. It had suffered from years of debt after investing in multiple businesses before making coal its primary business. Today, it's nearly debt-free, and while coal prices are low today, with the many mines that it owns, if the prices start soaring, the value of those mines (and the company) will also go up. And Matt leaves listeners with advice on deciding to stay long in positions in the face of potential downturns. (35:58)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Craig Tindale to the show. Craig is a private investor with a keen perspective on economic and geopolitical analysis. He has more than 5,000 subscribers on Substack.   Craig kicks things off by discussing "hard bifurcation," a term he uses to refer to the U.S. importing its products instead of manufacturing them, creating dependencies on other countries. For instance, China has control over the precious metals the U.S. needs for defense. Craig looks at history to show why nations didn't trade crucial resources with rival nations... and how nations that did faced shortages during war. And he addresses how China could restrict our access to rare earth metals to slow down U.S. AI chip development. (0:00)   Next, Craig notes several gases the U.S. produces that serve as counters to China's choke points. The only thing that could impact them would be a breakdown in the supply chain. Craig says that the U.S. would need at least five years to build the overall industrial factories and infrastructure needed to match what China has. And while not economically viable, if a rare earth shortage did hit the U.S., we could recycle e-waste to produce the materials we need. Craig discusses the byproducts that come from mining production and how they impact other industries. (19:14)   Finally, Craig expresses his frustration at how policy and regulation have created more risk factors for shortages. He says that companies move their efforts to other countries where such restrictions are looser or nonexistent. And while most folks won't notice those changes, they'd feel the knock-on effects if anything were to impact operations wherever that manufacturing was happening. And Craig warns folks to become more resilient and self-sufficient to protect themselves against uncertainty. (35:49)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Marko Papic back to the show. Marko is the chief strategist and head of GeoMacro at BCA Research, a global investment research firm.   Marko kicks things off by discussing the "second derivative of AI capex," which signals the beginning of the end of the AI boom. Due to tension in the Middle East potentially starting to ease up, the market is nearing the peak of the "Wall of Worry," and as a result, investors could lose a component that helps fuel the current rally. Additionally, Marko says that AI is inflationary. It takes labor, copper, and electricity to construct and run a data center, and with oil prices not likely to return to the levels they were at before the conflict at the Strait of Hormuz, that will just compound the inflation. Marko details what you can expect from the "endgame" of the Hormuz blockade. (0:00)   Next, Marko delves into oil prices and demand. He says that the conflict is starting to give several impressions to other countries after this passes. The first is that the U.S. creates demand when it has a desire to obtain resources and seeks them out. Countries will then start hoarding them as a means of securing them. The second impression the conflict shows is that our allies might not be able to rely on us in a prolonged conflict. Marko says that the raid in Venezuela earlier this year and the Strait of Hormuz situation were both supposed to be short-term incidents. The U.S. did not intend for the blockade to last as long as it has. So in the event of a drawn-out conflict, our allies might have second thoughts about asking for aid. However, even if we are shut out, Marko says America is integrated into the global infrastructure. (18:24)   Finally, Marko sums up the three main reasons why an "inflationary brew" is developing for data centers. The first is that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh might not be as dovish as hoped prior to entering the role. And it doesn't seem like President Donald Trump will do much to deter him from raising interest rates. That will make building data centers more expensive. The second is that the major AI IPOs are creating a massive supply with little liquidity. With many individual investors primarily having exposure to the S&P 500 Index, they'll be gaining exposure with their 401(k)s but won't be actively buying or selling them, resulting in stagnancy. And lastly, AI capex is slowing down since it's not feasible to build as many data centers as these companies desire. (36:06)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Peter Zeihan to the show. Peter specializes in geopolitics and brings a critical perspective on how foreign affairs impact the U.S. market.   Peter kicks things off by discussing why the market hasn't reacted or improved in response to the peace talks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. He says the reason is threefold. First, the White House acted with very little planning, only using Israeli intel and data. What was supposed to last no more than 96 hours was drawn out into a monthslong conflict. Second, Peter says that President Donald Trump fired numerous ambassadors and policy experts with the intention of not refilling those seats. This has made negotiating more difficult. And third, turning the oilfields back on will take months at best. Peter then says that due to comments made by the Trump administration, Europeans have a growing mistrust of America and are seeing it as a potential enemy. (0:00)   Next, Peter delves into Ukraine and its usage of drones in the war. Drones have and are continuing to become so advanced that Peter considers them part of what he calls the "second revolution of military technology." They're now capable of making decisions on what to target once they arrive at a destination area and cannot be jammed once they've made a decision. And the first-generation ground drones in development could be a game changer for Ukraine. Following this, Peter gives an update on a video he made titled "Don't Be Fooled. China Is Collapsing." He says the Chinese population numbers are not as high as stated, partially due to millions of citizens in the census having possibly been fabricated. Unlike the U.S. and other Western countries, China only has several "touchpoints" that determine that a citizen exists, and these have had falsified numbers in the past. While the official numbers might provide a false sense of security, the population decline will have a massive impact on the country. (17:20)   Finally, Peter shares his thoughts on a major transition period. He says that this will be a time of short-term pain, but in the long run, the countries that could weather the storm and emerge first would be the big winners in the new era. The United States was one potential winner, but with hostile work environments with other countries (in addition to globalization universally deteriorating) and an aging power grid, it's facing strong headwinds. Peter says the country will need to double its efforts in manufacturing at home if it wants to have a chance of surviving without other countries, especially if trade slows down or is even severed. (35:16)