EP12 – Foresight and Risk: Embracing Unpredictability with Roger Spitz (Part 1 - CPD Accredited)

"In a world of deep uncertainty, the ability to adapt is more important than the ability to predict." – Roger Spitz In this CPD episode of RiskMasters, host Julien Haye continues his conversation with Roger Spitz, global foresight expert and founder of Techistential and the Disruptive Futures Institute. Building on Part 1, Roger delves deeper into the practical application of foresight in risk management, covering how organisations can integrate scenario planning, anticipate systemic risks, and build resilience against unpredictable disruptions. In this edition of RiskMasters, you will learn: •            The Limits of Traditional Scenario Planning: Why conventional risk models fail in deep uncertainty and how organisations can develop a more adaptive approach.•            Foresight-Driven Decision-Making: How risk leaders can integrate foresight methodologies to navigate complexity and enhance strategic planning.•            Asymmetry and Uninsurable Risks: The impact of asymmetric risks, why some disruptions cannot be insured, and how leaders can build resilience in unpredictable environments.•            Beyond Resilience – Embracing Anti-Fragility: The critical distinction between fragility, resilience, and anti-fragility—and how organisations can thrive under systemic disruption.•            Leadership and Governance in an Uncertain World: Practical strategies for embedding foresight into risk culture, governance frameworks, and executive decision-making. More about Roger Spitz Roger is a leading authority on strategic foresight, systemic disruption, and complexity. As President of Techistential, he advises executives and boards on navigating uncertainty. He is also the author of Disrupt with Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World. Listen to the full episode on your player of choice:⁠RiskMasters with Roger Spitz on Apple Podcast⁠⁠RiskMasters with Roger Spitz on Spotify⁠⁠RiskMasters with Roger Spitz on Amazon Music⁠ Find out more about Roger Spitz: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rogerspitz/ Discover related risk management topics and RiskMasters podcasts:Building Operational ResilienceHow to Scope an Emerging Risk FrameworkHow to Identify and Manage Emerging Risks? Download your CPD Certificate:Link: ⁠https://thecpd.group/podcast⁠Accreditation number: #800056

"Risk management is not about predicting the future, but about preparing for it." – Roger Spitz In this CPD episode of RiskMasters, host Julien Haye welcomes Roger Spitz, a global leader in foresight and strategic risk intelligence. Roger, the founder of Techistential and The Disruptive Futures Institute, discusses his career pivot from investment banking to futures studies and how foresight can transform risk management. With extensive experience in mergers and acquisitions, Roger now focuses on preparing organisations for deep uncertainty rather than attempting to predict the future. His insights on complexity, decision-making, and resilience are critical for risk managers navigating an unpredictable world. If you enjoyed this episode, don’t forget to like, follow, and leave a review! Your feedback helps us bring more thought-provoking content and insights from industry leaders. In this edition of RiskMasters, you will learn:·      Career Evolution & Risk Leadership: Roger’s journey from investment banking to foresight and his lessons in risk-taking and adaptability.·      The Role of Foresight in Risk Management: Why foresight is about preparation, not prediction, and how organisations can shift their mindset.·      Uncertainty vs. Risk: Understanding the spectrum between risk, uncertainty, and deep uncertainty, and why traditional risk models fail in a nonlinear world.·      Scenario Planning vs. Sensitivity Analysis: Why many organisations mistakenly treat sensitivity analysis as strategic foresight.·      Decision-Making in Complex Environments: How executives should rethink governance, leadership, and resilience in a world where rare events are becoming the norm. More about Roger Spitz:Roger Spitz is a visionary futurist and venture capitalist. Before founding the influential Disruptive Futures Institute in San Francisco, he served as Global Head of Technology M&A at a major investment bank, advising on transactions totalling over $25 billion. As President of Techistential, the preeminent foresight practice, Roger advises CEOs and boards on strategy under uncertainty and sustainable value creation. Roger is a bestselling author of five books and his frameworks are widely adopted by leading organisations worldwide. Building on his bestselling books and global recognition as the leading authority on systemic disruption, Roger Spitz is famous for his unique keynotes drawn from his extensive real-world experience. He is the author of Disrupt with Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World. At the heart of Roger's transformative keynotes is the power of agency and informed optimism in shaping our futures, even in the face of unpredictability Find out more about Roger Spitz: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rogerspitz/ Discover related risk management topics and RiskMasters podcasts:RiskMasters EP4: Gray Rhino on Risk Management and Decision-Making with Michele WuckerFrom Risk Management to Risk Mastery: A Guide to Making Better DecisionsRisk Perception: Balancing Risk Awareness and Risk Aversion Download your CPD Certificate:Link: ⁠https://thecpd.group/podcast⁠Accreditation number: #800054

“Conduct beats controls every day. Fix the culture, and the controls will follow.” – Toby Billington   In this CPD episode of RiskMasters, host Julien Haye welcomes Toby Billington, a seasoned risk and compliance expert with extensive experience in conduct frameworks, risk culture, and behavioural science in financial services.    From his early days as a lawyer to senior executive roles in compliance and first-line risk management at Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC, Toby shares his perspectives on leadership, compliance frameworks, and how to build effective risk cultures.   If you enjoyed this episode, don’t forget to like, follow, and leave a review! Your feedback helps us bring more thought-provoking content and insights from industry leaders.   In this edition of RiskMasters, you will learn:  •       Career Shifts and Lessons Learned: Toby reflects on his transition from legal advisory to conduct and risk culture, highlighting pivotal career moments that shaped his expertise and his focus on behavioural science. •       Authentic Leadership and Cultural Change: Toby emphasizes the importance of authentic leadership in driving cultural transformation. He discusses the challenges of aligning tone from the top with actual behaviours and provides practical steps to ensure leadership walks the talk. •       The Role of First and Second Lines of Defence: Toby critiques the traditional three-lines-of-defence model, proposing greater collaboration between first and second lines to reduce duplication, enhance accountability, and streamline risk oversight. •       The Power of Storytelling in Risk Communication: Toby highlights the value of narrative-driven risk reporting to engage senior leadership and move beyond data-heavy, technical discussions. •       Emerging Risks in Financial Crime and Cybersecurity: With advances in AI and quantum computing, Toby outlines the evolving threats in financial crime and cybersecurity. He stresses the importance of staying ahead of these risks through innovation, vigilance, and behavioural psychology.   More about Toby Billington:    Toby Billington is a highly respected compliance and risk management leader with a career spanning top financial institutions such as Barclays, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Citi. Recognized for pioneering conduct frameworks and promoting ethical behaviour in financial services, Toby’s work integrates behavioural science into risk management strategies.   Connect with Toby on LinkedIn to explore more about compliance, risk culture, and leadership in financial services.   Tune in to this episode for an in-depth discussion on improving risk culture, redefining compliance frameworks, and managing emerging threats.    Find out more about Toby Billington:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/toby-billington-0646b89/   Discover related risk management topics: How to Establish a Sustainable and Sound Approach to Regulatory Compliance Ethical Compliance Management Understanding and Overcoming the Risks of Cultural Silos: Building a Collaborative and Inclusive Workplace FCA CP23/20 Consultation: Diversity and Inclusion in Financial Services   Download your CPD Certificate: Link: ⁠https://thecpd.group/podcast⁠ Accreditation number: #800043

"Plan for impact. Think about what amazing looks like and take steps every quarter to achieve it." – Marie Lauri   In this CPD episode of RiskMasters, host Julien Haye welcomes Marie Lauri, Deputy Chief Data Officer and Head of Data Risk and Controls at Deutsche Bank. With an impressive journey from microfinance to global data governance, Marie shares her insights on navigating challenges in data management, building resilient organisations, and leading with impact.   This discussion delves into how organisations can harness data as a strategic enabler for operational efficiency, regulatory compliance, and innovation—all while fostering a culture of collaboration and psychological safety.   In this edition of RiskMasters, you will learn:   ·      Building Strategic Data Governance: How to align regulatory compliance, cost-saving initiatives, and innovation through robust data governance frameworks, including insights into navigating regulations like BCBS 239 and data residency laws. ·      Balancing Innovation and Risk: The importance of embedding strong controls to enable advancements in AI and cloud migration while ensuring compliance, efficiency, and secure data access across complex systems. ·      Empowering Leadership Through Networks and Literacy: Marie’s approach to fostering data literacy across organisations and her initiatives to build support networks for female leaders, highlighting the value of diverse perspectives in driving organisational success.   More about Marie Lauri:Marie Lauri is a seasoned executive specialising in audit, risk management, and data governance. As Head of Data Risks and Controls and Regional Data Officer at Deutsche Bank, she has driven key initiatives in data management, regulatory compliance, and infrastructure modernisation.    With a PhD in applied econometrics and certifications in risk management and audit, Marie combines technical expertise with leadership experience. Beyond her corporate role, she advises Synthetized, an AI fintech, and is a prominent speaker on data transformation and AI adoption. Her passion for finance began through microfinance projects supporting women in developing countries.   Connect with Marie on LinkedIn to explore her insights on gender equity, data risk management, and leadership in financial services.   Tune in to this episode for an in-depth discussion on strategic data governance, balancing innovation with risk management, and fostering data literacy to address the evolving challenges of today’s data-driven financial landscape. Read the podcast notes and summary article: https://www.aevitium.com/post/interview-with-marie-lauri-on-riskmasters Find out more about Marie Lauri:https://www.linkedin.com/in/marie-lauri-a4b8bb21/   Discover related risk management topics: Effective Strategies for Managing Risks in AI-Driven Business Decision-Making Responsible Innovation and Development of Artificial Intelligence in Finance   Download your CPD Certificate: Link: ⁠https://thecpd.group/podcast⁠ Accreditation number: 800042

“Invest in your people. Systems are great, but without skilled individuals, they’re meaningless.” – Saadia Mujeeb In this CPD episode of RiskMasters, host Julien Haye welcomes Saadia Mujeeb, a risk management veteran with over 25 years of experience across global financial institutions. From her early days at Barclays Capital to her leadership role at Macquarie Bank Europe, Saadia’s journey through the evolving landscape of risk management provides deep insights into what it takes to thrive in an ever-changing industry. She shares her strategies for resilience, the importance of continuous education, and her views on how emerging challenges like AI and geopolitical risks are reshaping the future of risk management. In this edition of RiskMasters, CPD risk management podcast, you will learn: A Career of Continuous Learning and Adaptation: Saadia reflects on her extensive experience in risk management, recounting her work at major institutions during pivotal moments in the financial markets, including the Global Financial Crisis and the post-Brexit energy crisis. She discusses the importance of staying agile and keeping up with market changes. The Challenge of Keeping Pace with Markets: Saadia emphasises how risk professionals must continuously educate themselves to stay ahead. As markets evolve, risk managers need to research new trading strategies and understand various risk types, from credit to market and operational risk, making them the linchpins of organisational insight. Building Resilience Amidst Crises: With a career shaped by handling crises, Saadia highlights the need for preparedness, stress testing, and the ability to react quickly. She advocates for scenario planning and the importance of sharing knowledge across teams to build organizational resilience. Emerging Challenges in Risk Management: Looking to the future, Saadia discusses the growing importance of AI and digital proficiency in risk management. While technology offers vast opportunities, she underscores the need for critical thinking and scepticism, particularly when relying on AI-generated outputs. Additionally, she points out the risks of complacency in the face of geopolitical and cyber threats, stressing the need for constant vigilance.   More about Saadia Mujeeb:Saadia Mujeeb is an accomplished risk management professional, having held senior roles at global financial institutions, including Barclays Capital, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Macquarie Bank. With a career spanning multiple markets and regions, Saadia brings a wealth of experience in managing risk across diverse portfolios, including hedge funds, prime brokerage, and asset management. Connect with Saadia on LinkedIn to explore more on risk management and leadership in the financial services industry. Tune in to this episode for an in-depth discussion on building resilience, the importance of continuous learning, and the emerging challenges that risk managers must navigate in today’s complex market environments.   Read the podcast notes and summary article: https://www.aevitium.com/post/cpd-interview-with-saadia-mujeeb Find out more about Saadia Mujeeb:https://www.linkedin.com/in/saadia-mujeeb-242157/   Discover related risk management topics: Crisis Management and Response: Best Practices and Strategies Coding the Future: Digitalisation and AI in Risk Management and Trading with Britta Achmann on RiskMasters Building Operational Resilience   Download your CPD Certificate: Link: ⁠https://thecpd.group/podcast⁠ Accreditation number: 800039

“In sustainability, start at the top, or risk being sidelined.” – Aurore Lecanon In this CPD accredited episode of RiskMasters, host Julien Haye sits down with Aurore Lecanon, a seasoned Chief Risk Officer in the insurance industry, to explore the intersection of sustainability and risk management. Aurore shares her unique career journey from her beginnings in the insurance sector to becoming a leader in risk management. She delves into the challenges and opportunities of integrating sustainability into corporate strategy, offering insights into the evolving nature of risk leadership and the critical role of culture, governance, and strategic alignment in achieving sustainable outcomes. In this edition of RiskMasters, you will learn: Career Path and Evolution in Risk Management: Aurore reflects on her diverse experience in the insurance industry, discussing her unexpected path to becoming a Chief Risk Officer and the strategic perspective this role offers. She provides insights into how understanding the holistic view of risk can drive business decisions and foster innovation. Challenges of Integrating Sustainability: Aurore discusses the complexities of embedding sustainability within risk frameworks. She emphasises the importance of aligning sustainability goals with overall business strategies, the role of regulatory requirements, and the cultural transformation needed to achieve meaningful impact. Gender Dynamics and Leadership: Aurore shares her experience as a woman in a senior role in the insurance industry. She challenges common misconceptions about women in leadership, reflecting on the strengths women bring to decision-making and the value of diverse perspectives in enriching business strategy and risk management. Trends at the Cross-Section of Sustainability and Risk: Aurore highlights the future of risk management, focusing on innovations like AI-driven risk assessments and the use of data analytics to support sustainable decisions. She discusses the potential of technologies like blockchain to enhance transparency in supply chains and the need for industry-wide collaboration to achieve net-zero goals. More about Aurore Lecanon: Aurore Lecanon is a seasoned Chief Risk Officer with extensive experience in both life and general insurance sectors, having held leadership roles at major firms like Aviva, Old Mutual, Prudential, and Direct Line. A French quant by background, Aurore has a deep understanding of asset liability management, financial risk, and the strategic aspects of risk management. Her commitment to embedding sustainability into risk strategies has made her a thought leader in the industry. Connect with Aurore on LinkedIn to explore more on sustainability, risk management, and leadership in the insurance industry. Tune in to this episode for an in-depth discussion on the integration of sustainability into risk frameworks, the evolving role of risk leaders, and the cultural and strategic shifts necessary for building resilient, future-ready organisations. Read the podcast notes and summary article: https://www.aevitium.com/post/integrating-sustainability-and-risk-insights-from-aurore-lecanon-on-leadership-strategy-and-indus Find out more about Aurore Lecanon LinkedIN: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aurore-lecanon/ ​ Discover connected risk management and oversight topics: 1/. Top Enterprise Risk Management Trends in 2024 2/. Effective Strategies for Managing Risks in AI-Driven Business Decision-Making 3/. How to Identify and Manage Emerging Risks? Download your CPD Certificate: Link: https://thecpd.group/podcast Accreditation number: 800033

"The most important thing about this world that we move into is to be open-minded, think outside the box, and be flexible and agile." Anna Rosenberg In this CPD accredited episode of RiskMasters, host Julien Haye engages in a thought-provoking conversation with Anna Rosenberg, the Head of Geopolitics at Amundi Asset Management. Anna shares her extensive journey, from her early days studying history to becoming a prominent figure in geopolitical risk analysis. She provides valuable insights into the intersection of personal resilience, gender dynamics, and strategic risk management in today's complex world. In this edition of RiskMasters, you will learn: Resilience and Career Growth: Anna recounts how entering the job market during the financial crisis shaped her career. She emphasises the importance of persistence, analytical thinking, and seizing opportunities amidst uncertainty. Gender and Leadership: Anna reflects on the impact of gender on her career, discussing both the challenges and the empowering aspects of being a woman in a senior role. She highlights how motherhood has equipped her with unique strengths and resilience. Strategic Geopolitical Risk Management: Anna explains the crucial role of structured analysis in managing geopolitical risks. She advocates for a proactive approach, outlining the need for organisations to develop comprehensive frameworks and stay informed on global developments. More about Anna Rosenberg: Anna Rosenberg is the Head of Geopolitics at Amundi Asset Management, one of Europe’s largest asset managers. Anna, with a history background and extensive experience in political risk analysis, helps investors navigate and predict political risk through research, data, and strategy. Her analytical approach and commitment to continuous learning define her leadership style. For more insights from Anna, connect with her on LinkedIn, where she welcomes discussions on geopolitical risks and strategic analysis. Tune in to this episode for a comprehensive understanding of resilience, leadership, and the strategic management of geopolitical risks in today’s dynamic environment. Read the podcast notes and summary article: https://www.aevitium.com/post/navigating-geopolitical-risks-and-embracing-diversity-insights-from-anna-rosenberg Find out more about Anna Rosenberg LinkedIN: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anna-rosenberg-39320612/ ​Discover connected risk management and oversight topics: 1/. 2024 Risk Management Mega-Trends 2/. Necessary vs Unnecessary Risks 3/. How to Identify and Manage Emerging Risks? Download your CPD Certificate: Link: ⁠https://thecpd.group/podcast⁠ Accreditation number: 800034

“Risk doesn't belong to the risk department; it belongs to everybody. And the management of risk can only happen if people are aware that it is a key ingredient into every recipe.” – Katie Smith   In this episode of RiskMasters, host Julien Haye engages in an enlightening conversation with Katie Smith, a seasoned legal and compliance leader with extensive experience in asset management. Katie shares her remarkable journey, from her early career beginnings to overcoming a major health crisis, and her perspectives on inclusive leadership and strategic risk management. In this edition of RiskMasters, you will learn: ·       Resilience and Growth through Adversity: Katie discusses how a life-threatening heart attack profoundly changed her outlook on life and work. She emphasises the importance of resilience, patience, and relying on others during challenging times. ·       Authentic Leadership and Diversity: Katie reflects on her experiences as a woman in senior roles, highlighting the importance of leading with kindness, creating space for diverse voices, and encouraging inclusivity in the workplace. ·       Strategic Importance of Risk Management: Katie explains how integrating risk management into all aspects of business is crucial. She advocates for continuous dialogue about risk and views it as a strategic enabler for organisational success. More about Katie Smith: Katie Smith is the General Counsel at Buffer and Asset Manager. With a career spanning roles at Vanguard and Deutsche Bank and beginning at Clifford Chance, Katie has extensive experience in the financial services industry. She is passionate about helping others, leading with curiosity, and fostering a culture of inclusivity and strategic risk management. Her personal experiences and dedication to creating supportive and innovative business environments inform Katie's approach to leadership and risk. For more insights from Katie, connect with her on LinkedIn, where she welcomes conversations over coffee to discuss her journey and insights further. Tune in to this episode for an inspiring look at resilience, leadership, and the strategic role of risk management in today’s business landscape. Read the podcast notes and summary article: https://www.aevitium.com/post/interview-with-katie-smith-on-riskmasters Find out more about Katie Smith LinkedIN: https://www.linkedin.com/in/katie-smith-93a67412/ ​Discover connected risk management and oversight topics: 1/. 2024 Risk Management Mega-Trends 2/. Necessary vs Unnecessary Risks 3/. Going Digital: A Paradigm Shift in Risk Management Download your CPD Certificate: Link: ⁠⁠https://thecpd.group/podcast⁠⁠ Accreditation number: 800035

“Established boards understand risk governance but want simpler updates, while start-ups need education on the value of risk management” – Kathy Griffin In this CPD accredited episode of RiskMasters, join host Julien Haye as he converses with Kathy Griffin, an experienced Chief Risk Officer and compliance leader with a diverse background that spans traditional financial institutions and innovative start-ups. Kathy shares her unique journey into the world of risk, the lessons learned from navigating both start-ups and established companies, and her approach to leading with empathy and innovation in risk management. In this episode of RiskMasters, you will discover:  Leadership Challenges and Overcoming Imposter Syndrome - She candidly reflects on her early management failures due to imposter syndrome and immaturity, and how stepping back into team roles was pivotal for rebuilding her confidence and eventually taking on leadership roles again. Communication with Boards: Established Companies vs. Start-ups - She contrasts her experiences with boards in established companies, which understand risk governance but prefer simplified updates, against start-ups that often require education on the value of risk management. The Risk Function as an Innovation Enabler - Kathy advocates for risk teams to collaborate closely with business units from the initial idea stages, emphasising the shift towards outcomes-based regulation and the importance of building customer-focused cultures. More about Kathy Griffin: Kathy has worked in financial services for nearly 30 years, the last 18 of which have been in risk and compliance. She’s currently the Chief Risk and Compliance Officer at Uber (Payments UK) and was previously the Director of Compliance at Monzo.  Kathy is passionate about risk and compliance being an enabler for innovation and growth and believes that embracing diversity and inclusion is key to the success of any business. Read the podcast notes and summary article: https://www.aevitium.com/post/kathy-griffin-s-path-to-empowering-risk-and-compliance-leadership Find out more about Kathy Griffin ​LinkedIN: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kathy-griffin-b3a69512/ Download your CPD Certificate: Link: ⁠⁠⁠https://thecpd.group/podcast⁠⁠⁠ Accreditation number: 800036 Please Enjoy! Don't miss out on future episodes! Hit that subscribe button on your favourite podcasting platform, and stay tuned for fascinating discussions on risk management – ⁠⁠⁠Apple Podcasts⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠Amazon⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠Google Podcasts⁠⁠⁠, or follow on my website ⁠⁠⁠www.aevitium.com⁠  

Welcome to another insightful episode of RiskMasters, where we delve into the world of risk management with leading experts in the field. In this episode, I have the pleasure of hosting Michele Wucker, a renowned strategic advisor, global economic policy expert, and author of the critically acclaimed book THE GRAY RHINO. Michele brings her wealth of knowledge and experience to discuss the fascinating world of risk management, decision-making, and the concept of the Gray Rhino. In this episode of RiskMasters, you will discover:  Michele Wucker's professional evolution from media executive to becoming a global economic policy expert and the founder of Gray Rhino and Company. The concept and significance of the "Gray Rhino" in risk management, and how Michele's diverse cultural experiences have shaped her approach to understanding and addressing global risks. Her insights into the future of risk management, particularly the role of psychological safety in organisations and the importance of self-awareness for emerging risk leaders. More about Michele Wucker:  Michele Wucker is the founder of the Chicago-based advisory firm Gray Rhino and Company and the author of THE GRAY RHINO and its sequel, YOU ARE WHAT YOU RISK. Her work focuses on strategic advisory and global economic policies.  A former media and think tank executive drawing on decades of experience in global finance and economics, she works at the nexus of policy, behavioural science, and business strategy. Her approach is unique in that it integrates these diverse areas to provide comprehensive insights into risk management and decision-making. Outside her professional life, Michele enjoys walking her dog along Lake Michigan, cooking, and engaging in creative and systems thinking activities. Her personal interests and experiences play a significant role in her approach to understanding and communicating complex risk management concepts. Read the podcast notes and summary article: https://www.aevitium.com/post/riskmasters-with-michele-wucker Find out more about Michele Wucker ​LinkedIN: https://www.linkedin.com/in/wucker/ Website: thegrayrhino.com Download your CPD Certificate: Link: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thecpd.group/podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠ Accreditation number: 800037 ​ Please Enjoy! Don't miss out on future episodes! Hit that subscribe button on your favourite podcasting platform, and stay tuned for fascinating discussions on risk management – ⁠⁠Apple Podcasts⁠⁠, ⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠, ⁠⁠Amazon⁠⁠, ⁠⁠Google Podcasts⁠⁠, or follow on my website ⁠⁠www.aevitium.com⁠