Debating the Meaning of Military Victory

On this episode, Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the question of military victory. Is there such a thing? Is military victory achievable for either Russia or Ukraine? And if so, at what cost? And will we ever see a war that ends in unconditional surrender? Grievances for President Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine by siding with China and Russia; the Saudi's dissembling on the threats to the Kingdom; and the latest stories of corruption within the Trump administration. Attas to the Ukrainians who rescued a wounded soldier by drone, to Anthony Scaramucci for lasting twice as long in his job as Katie Zacharia, and to Stimson's Evan Cooper – who is getting married! Congrats to Evan and Grace.   Show Links:   Stephen Biddle, Sam Winter-Levy, and Yuri Zhukov, "The Myth of Military Victory: The Dangerous Idea Driving Today's Wars of Choice," Foreign Affairs, October 6, 2026. Ahmed Al Omran, Nicolas Parasie, and Andrew England "Saudi Arabia to postpone 'Davos in the desert' after Houthi attacks," Financial Times, October 19, 2026. The Iran War, Eight Months On: Reassessing Costs, Consequences, and US Interests, Stimson Center, November 5, 2026. Henry Stimson Diary August 9-10, 1945, National Security Archive. Drone rescuing Ukrainian soldier, X post, October 19, 2026.  Dana Mattioli, Josh Dawsey, Joe Parkinson, Drew Hinshaw, and Vera Bergengruen, Inside Kimberly Guilfoyle's Last Days as Ambassador to Greece, Wall Street Journal, October 13, 2026.

As the artificial intelligence revolution advances and the Trump administration questions the value of outside experts, think tanks are facing a worsening supply-demand imbalance. Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss a recent Anthropic report outlining different economic scenarios and apply its lessons to better understand how AI will transform think tanks and the broader foreign policy community in Washington. Chris welcomes members of Congress questioning funding for the Iran War, Melanie criticizes the administration for massively subsidizing a steel mill in Iowa, and Zack laments civilian leaders for involving the military in political messaging. Show Links: "Scenarios for Our Economic Future," Anthropic, September 2026. Helene Cooper and John Ismay, "Hegseth Lays Out His Military Vision," New York Times, September 30, 2026. Nela Richardson and Tim Decker, "The rise – and rise – of knowledge work," ADP Research, April 21, 2026 Education Pays, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gene Healy, "Want to Stop the Iran War? Don't Pay the Bill," Reason, October 2, 2026. Mike Yeo, "After yearslong delay, Taiwan receives first pair of new F-16s," Breaking Defense, October 2, 2026.                                                                                        Hunter Slingbaum and Kelly Grieco, "Runway Trap: How Chinese Missiles and Rockets Could Neutralize Taiwan's Air Force," Stimson Center, March 5, 2026.

With Zack out collecting frequent flyer miles, Tom Karako joins Chris and Melanie to discuss the Lead Inspector General Report on Operation Epic Fury. When the war began in February, were the administration's stated objectives aligned with the resources needed to fight it? Are they now? What does America's use of so many high-end weapons tell us about our strategy? And what can we learn about the activities of the State and Treasury Departments during the war? Chris has a grievance for corruption in defense contracting, Tom remembers the late Sen. Jon Kyl, and Melanie wishes Capitals hockey player Alexander Ovechkin would stop campaigning for Vladimir Putin. Show Links:   Lead Inspector General Report on Operation Epic Fury, DOD Office of Inspector General, September 14, 2026. Estimating the Cost of Combat Operations in Iran, Congressional Budget Office, September 15, 2026. Noah Robertson, Tara Copp, Warren P. Strobel, and Alex Horton, More US Troops Have Died Amid Iran War Than Pentagon Has Disclosed Publicly, Washington Post, September 18, 2026. Ellen Milligan, Michael Neinaber, and Andrea Palasciano, US Warns Allies of Missile Delivery Delays Due to Shortage, Bloomberg, September 18, 2026. Eric Schmitt, Cost of Iran War Estimated at $43.6 Billion, New York Times, September 18, 2026. Robert Klemko, X post, September 17, 2026. James Paterson, Speech to the Submarine Institute of Australia, September 22, 2026. Tom Corben, Jennifer Parker, Satoru Mori, and Jeffrey Hornung, Australia, Japan, and the United States: Implementing a Trilateral Denial Strategy along the First Island Chain, United States Studies Centre, September 15, 2026. Jack Goldsmith, Glenn Fine, Jen Patja, What Does the Inspector General Do?, Lawfare podcast, December 10, 2024. William Turton, Avi Asher-Schapiro, Molly Redden and Kirsten Berg, "The FBI Anti-Corruption Squad Was Circling Susan Collins — Until Trump Got in the Way," ProPublica,   September 22, 2026. Richard Gowan, "Shrink the UN: The Next Secretary-General Must Get Back to Basics," Foreign Affairs, September 21, 2026. U.S. Foreign Policy and the Separation of Powers: A Conference on Law, Power, and Democratic Accountability in a Changing International Order, Tufts University, September 24–25, 2026. "The Second Trump-Xi Summit: Takeaways from the US, China, and Russia," Online Event, Stimson Center, September 28, 2026. The Sandra Day O'Connor–Washington Union Debate Series at George Washington University, October 3, 2026. Tom Karako, "Sing Missile Muse: America's Most Fearsome Weapons Need Better Names,"  War on the Rocks, June 7, 2021. Josh Hawley, "Why I wont Vote to Add Finland and Sweden to NATO," The National Interest, August 1, 2022. Tom Cotton, "Speech on the Senate Floor", August 3, 2022. Tom Karako and Mark Cancian, "Munitions Shortages after Epic Fury," CSIS, August 5, 2026. Amy B. Wang and Alexei Koseff, "Jon Kyl, a former top Republican in the Senate, dies at 84," Washington Post. Chris Lunday, Germany Plans a €12 Billion Missile Program to Deter Putin, Politico Europe, August 21, 2026.  Laura Pitel and Christopher Miller, Germany Urges US to Allow Patriot Missile Production in Europe, Financial Times, September 23, 2026. 

In this show, the Net Assessment crew ponders the Global War on Terror (GWOT). Twenty-five years after 9/11 and five years after the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. what lessons have we learned about warfare? Does our experience in Afghanistan, and now in Iran, demonstrate that the American military has an outsized fixation on lethality? To better prepare for future conflicts, how should strategists think about how adversary human networks behave? Attas for former Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, and grievances for Argentina's Javier Milei threatening to retake the Falklands. *The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Show Links: Jonathan Schroden, What Have We Learned from the 9/11 Wars? Not Nearly Enough, War on the Rocks, August 17, 2026. Gregg Jaffe, Why the United States Can't Quit Its Wars, New York Times, August 30, 2026. Evan Cooper, The Shadow of 9/11 on Future US Foreign Policy, Stimson Center, September 3, 2026. Christopher Preble and Michael Cohen, The Perils of Lethality, Stimson Center, June 24, 2025. Greg Myre, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigns after clashes with Defense Secretary Hegseth, NPR, September 1, 2026. Power Politics: Thucydides to Trump. The Exercise of Power Internationally through the Ages, The Hellenic Centre, September 22, 2026. Javier Milei's Outburst over the Falklands is a Mark of Weakness, The Economist, September 4, 2026. Nancy A. Youssef, Missy Ryan, and Michael Scherer, Dan Driscoll's Parting Shot, The Atlantic, September 1, 2026. Jason Dempsey, Coming to Terms with America's Undeniable Failure in Afghanistan, War on the Rocks, February 11, 2019.  U.S. Department of State, "Promoting Pacific Prosperity: U.S. Engagement at the Pacific Islands Forum", September 1, 2026.

The team sits down to talk about the new OSTP report, Science: A New Golden Age. What role should the government have in the scientific enterprise? What should national scientific goals be? It is time to integrate new funding models into research and development, or does that unacceptably increase the risk for politicization of science? Does the report's emphasis on breakthroughs that benefit the public more quickly ignore the importance of foundational research?   Coming up on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, Chris gives an atta to Joe Biden for making the hard decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan 5 years ago. Zack has a shoutout for Moderna and Merck for continued work on mRNA cancer vaccines, and Melanie congratulates British Prime Minister Andy Burnham for going to Kyiv and giving Ukraine classified data so it can produce Scalp long-range missiles.   Show Links:   Gil Barndollar, "Five Years Later, Biden Was Proven Right in Withdrawing From Afghanistan," American Prospect, August 17, 2026. Matthew Harper, Jason Mast, and Angus Chen, "Inside Moderna and Merck's cancer vaccine triumph," STAT News, August 24, 2026. Eric S. Edelman, "The Unintended Consequences of Trump's Turn Against South Korea," The Dispatch, August 21, 2026. Michael Kratsios, Science: A New Golden Age, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, July 2026. Includes Russell T. Vought/Michael Kratsios Memorandum for the Heads of Executive Departments and Agencies, July 21, 2026. Vannevar Bush, Science: The Endless Frontier, GPO, 1945. Bill Ackman, X post, August 19, 2026. Andrea Palasciano, US Presses Allies on Ideological Loyalty Ahead of Troop Cuts, Bloomberg, August 14, 2026. George Parker and Polina Ivanova, Andy Burnham Condemns Russia's 'Outrageous Threats' to UK During Kyiv Visit, Financial Times, August 24, 2026.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Michael Fuchs's recent article arguing for a U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East. They also discuss the impact of the Iran War and shifting American attitudes towards Israel as well as the Saudi-U.S. nuclear deal and the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani collective defense agreement. Chris commends the Congressional Budget Office's battleship assessment, and Melanie gives credit to CSIS's team for its work on munitions, while Zack laments the Congress giving the executive branch more leeway on tariffs. *The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Show Links: Michael Fuchs, "America Must Let Go of the Middle East," Foreign Affairs, August 8, 2026. Matthew Kroenig and Henry Sokolski, "The Saudi Nuclear Deal Invites Disaster," Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2026. Daniel Poneman, "Critics of the U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal Have It Exactly Wrong," New York Times, August 6, 2026. "Advancing American Safety, Strength, and Prosperity in Southeast Asia," U.S. Mission to ASEAN, July 23, 2026. Neil Irwin, "Trump may get a big, new tariff authority," Axios, August 6, 2026. "The Navy's New Battleship Program: Costs and Implications for the Shipbuilding Industrial Base, Congressional Budget Office", August 5, 2026. Philip E. Auerswald, "The Irrelevance of the Middle East", The American Interest, May 2007 Justin Logan, "Why the Middle East Still Doesn't Matter", Politico Magazine, October 9, 2014. "The U.S.-Saudi Agreement for Civil Nuclear Cooperation: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions", Arms Control Association, August 7, 2026. Christopher Preble and Alessandro Perri, "Assumption Testing: The Iran War Is a Case of Alliance Entanglement", Stimson Center, August 3, 2026. Christopher Preble and Lucas Ruiz, "In a Nuclear World, Arms Control Is the Only True Deterrent", Inkstick, August 10. 2026. Mark Cancian and Chris Park, Six Reasons Why the US is Low on Munitions, CSIS, July 31, 2026. CSIS Missile Defense Project Alexandra Sharp, The Middle East Tries Its Hand at a NATO-Style Pact, Foreign Policy, August 7, 2026. Daniel C. Kurtzer and Aaron David Miller, Trump's Saudi Nuclear Deal is Diplomatic Malpractice, Foreign Policy, July 27, 2026. Eric S. Edelman, With the Saudi Deal, Trump Risks Aiding and Abetting a Nuclear Arms Race, The Dispatch, July 28, 2026. 

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss public attitudes toward the United States and China, and the Trump administration's response  -- which mostly seems to deny that they matter. Why does much of the world view the United States less favorably, and China more favorably, than it did just a few years ago? Is this just a temporary decline that can be overcome with a new administration or nicer advisors? Does it even matter to American interests if we aren't loved? Grievances to the Pentagon for its secrecy and dissembling around casualties in the Iran War, and for thinking that its problems can be solved with more testosterone, and to the Coast Guard for its Polar Security Cutter program which is grossly overbudget and badly delayed. Attas to members of Congress for calling out the Pentagon's secrecy and dissembling around the Iran War, to those who pushed back on the Trump administration's plan to investigate the New York Times and Google for a series of leaks surrounding the new Air Force One, and for those uncovering and publishing the COVID files.   Show Links:   Jonathan Schulman, Laura Silver, Laura Clancy, and William Miner, "People in Many Countries Now View China More Positively Than the U.S.," Pew Research Center, July 15, 2026. "America's Report Card in Southeast Asia," Net Assessment, War on the Rocks, April 11, 2024. Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby, @USWPColby, X, July 14, 2026. Opinion, "Iran, China, Canada? A Defense of Trump's Grand Strategy," Interesting Times, New York Times, July 23, 2026. Biyon Sony Joseph, "Washington misreads middle power cooperation," Lowy Institute, July 23, 2026. Helene Cooper, Lara Jakes, and John Ismay, "Number of U.S. Troop Deaths Suddenly Appears Lower on Pentagon Website," New York Times, July 23, 2026. Helene Cooper, "Pentagon Changes How It Reports Casualties in Iran War," July 26, 2026. Tom Nichols, "The American People Need the Truth About the Iran War," The Atlantic, July 22, 2026. Nancy A. Youssef and Jonathan Lemire, "War by Any Other Name," The Atlantic, July 21, 2026 Jenny Leonard, Trump's Aides See China Cheating on Trade, But Shun Reprisal, Bloomberg, July 15, 2026. Alexander Burns, A New Report Offers a Stark Warning to Centrists, July 24, 2026. Sam Westfall and Dan Diamond, Fauci's Diary Reveals His Thoughts on a 'Rambling' Trump and His Own Fame, Washington Post, July 27, 2026. Malte Humpert, U.S. Polar Security Cutter Delayed to 2033 as Costs Top $6 Billion, GAO Warns, gCaptain, July 22, 2026. Ron Wyden, Statement on Congressional Trade Powers Reform Act of 2026, July 22, 2026.  Sebastian Junger, "There's More to Peak Military Performance Than Testosterone. I've Seen It." Wall Street Journal, July 24, 2026. Michael M. Grynbaum and Jonah E. Bromwich, "U.S. Withdraws Subpoenas Issued to New York Times Journalists," New York Times, July 23, 2026

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a look at the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment. Does the document get the threats, and their prioritiztion, right? How does Trump administration policy align with what the intelligence community determines to be the most critical threats facing the US in the next year? Has the two-decades-old ODNI experiment has run its course? Chris commends Global Affairs Canada and the Stimson Center for jointly honoring the late Stimson Center president, Brian Finlay, with an award in his name, the Brian Finlay Innovation in Threat Reduction Award. Zack has some kind words for Senator Lindsey Graham, who just passed away, and Melanie criticizes NATO leaders for wimping out at the end of a summit where the primary goal was to demonstrate the ability to fight.   Show Links:   2026 Annual Threat Assessment, ODNI, March 14, 2026. Andreas Kluth, If the US Keeps Messing with this Spy Agency, It'll Pay a High Price, Bloomberg, July 9, 2026. Dan Lomas and Matthew Savill, Missing Intelligence: The Trump Administration, Iran, and the US Intelligence Community, Royal United Services Institute, May 21, 2026. Ott Tammik, Erodgan's NATO Gift of Revolvers Runs into Europe's Gun Laws, Bloomberg, July 10, 2026. Aaron Blake, Tulsi Gabbard Went Down to Georgia, and No One in the Trump Administration Wants to Take Credit, CNN, February 5, 2026. "Global Affairs Canada and the Stimson Center Launch the Brian Finlay Innovation in Threat Reduction Award," Stimson Center, July 1, 2026. Melanie Marlowe, X, 10:28 PM – 7/6/26.

With Chris galavanting across Europe, Stimson's Emma Ashford joins Melanie and Zack to debate whether the United States is undermining deterrence in Europe. What does a decreased U.S. conventional commitment mean for the risk of nuclear escalation? And might Vladimir Putin see this as an opportunity to test the alliance by attacking a NATO member, either now or in the future? Emma also commends Scotland's Tartan Army while Melanie criticizes the firing of General Christopher Donahue and Zack laments the dismissal of career officials by the acting Director of National Intelligence.   Show Links:   Celeste A. Wallander, "The Coming Crisis of NATO Deterrence," Foreign Affairs, May 28, 2026. Rose Gottemoeller, "The Strange Defeat of Nuclear Deterrence," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2026. Ellen Nakashima and Warren P. Strobel, "New acting intel czar Bill Pulte starts trimming staff as Trump urged," Washington Post, June 25, 2026. Daryl Press and Jennifer Lind, "The Broken Nuclear Umbrella: What Comes After Extended Deterrence," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2026.  Recommended Reading: Evan Montgomery and Toshi Yoshihara, "Friendly Proliferation and the Future of the Japan-US Alliance," The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2026.  Samuel Charap and Hiski Ahukkala, Europe's Next War: The Rising Risk of NATO-Russia Conflict, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2026. Michael Kofman, The Next Russia Threat: Moscow's Military Power after Ukraine, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2026. David J. Bobb and Tony Williams, Divided Over the Declaration: How an Enduring Debate Sustains the Vision of America. 

In this show, Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the benefits and costs for U.S. allies and partners who host U.S. bases on their territory. As traditional allies have limited air space and basing access to the United States during the Iran war, has a major fault line in American strategy been publicly exposed? And if allies do limit wartime access in the future, will it stop the United States from fighting both wise and unwise wars? Grievances for Keir Starmer's government in the UK, especially its approach to national security and energy; for Tulsi Gabbards' decision to release information about supposed U.S. biolabs on her way out the door, and to all of those saying that stopping a war requires a vote of Congress, but starting one doesn't. Attas to Americans (and Canadians and Mexicans) for welcoming the world for the World Cup games; a lukewarm atta to the New York Knicks for winning the NBA Championship; and an enthusiastic atta to Melanie's niece Miriam for making the swim team!   Show Links:   Rachel Metz, "Iran and the Hidden Cost of Wartime Access," Foreign Affairs. Austin Carson, Rachel Metz, and Paul Poast, "Allies and Access: Implications of an American Turn Away from Alliances," International Organization. 2025;79(S1):S103-S116. doi:10.1017/S0020818325100982. Tongfi Kim, "Why Alliances Entangle But Seldom Entrap States,' Security Studies, 2011; 20(3), 350–377. Jared Isaacman, X post, June 9, 2026. John Bew, What's Britain's Place in the Post-Iran World Order?", The Spectator (US), April 16, 2026. Ivana Kottasova, Two Top UK Defense Officials Resign over Military Spending in Fresh Blow to Keir Starmer, CNN, June 12, 2026.  Zack Cooper (editor), "Extended Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific," National Bureau of Asian Research, June 15, 2026. Mira Rapp-Hooper and Zack Cooper, "Washington's Asian Allies Need a Backup Plan," Foreign Policy, June 11, 2026.