Mathew Burrows: Forecasting the Next World Order

Branko Milanovic joins the show to discuss his latest book, The Great Global Transformation: The United States, China, and the Remaking of the World Economic Order (2026). We discuss the emergence of a new elite; similarities between Trump, Putin, and Xi; and “national market liberalism” in a multipolar world.Branko Milanovic is a Research Professor at the CUNY Graduate Center and former lead economist at the World Bank. He is the author of Global Inequality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalization (2016), Capitalism, Alone: The Future of the System That Rules the World (2019), and Visions of Inequality: From the French Revolution to the End of the Cold War (2023), and The Great Global Transformation: The United States, China, and the Remaking of the World Economic Order (2026).Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Timestamps00:00:00 Introduction00:00:40 The Great Global Transformation00:05:00 Towards a new convergence theory?00:08:00 Homoploutia and the new capitalists00:10:15 Does capitalism create the same elites everywhere?00:13:30 How does global redistribution of wealth affect domestic politics00:19:15 Evolving state-elite relations  00:24:30 AI and the new arms race00:30:30 National market liberalism00:34:35 The nation-state in a changing world order00:37:30 Economic spheres of influence00:40:00 Nationalism as an alternative to globalism?00:42:40 How can West and East be defined?00:47:00 Warmongering of European elites00:49:40 Irresponsibility of small statesShow Links:The Great Global Transformation Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark Leonard, Co-Founder and Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, joins Worldviews with Peter Slezkine to discuss Europe’s evolving identity, the current state of the transatlantic relationship, prospects for ending the war in Ukraine, and the future of Europe in a changing global order.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Timestamps00:00 - 1:00: Introduction1:00 – 2:45: Brief biography2:45 - 8:10: The creation of ECFR8:10 - 11:15: How is the European project defined?11:15 - 13:20: How did Brexit change Europe? / What is the role of Russia in Europe?13:20 - 15:55: What is the nature of the transatlantic relationship?15:55 – 25:55: Did European integration turn out as hoped?25:55 - 28:35: Europe’s strategic errors28:35 - 35:15: Is there a “European identity?”35:15 – 41:10: How US foreign policy galvanizes Europe41:10- 46:05: From a project of peace to a project of war46:05 – 48:00: How does Europe want to end the war in Ukraine?48:00 - 50:00: Can European unity survive peace in Ukraine?50:00 - 54:00: How does nationalist populism threaten European unity?54:00 - 57:30: Will the US resist an increasingly autonomous Europe?57:30 - 1:01:30: What is the fundamental unit of international politics?1:01:30 - 1:01:49: Outro Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Fyodor Voitolovsky, director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations at the Russian Academy of Sciences, returns to the Trialogue to lay out Moscow's vision for ending the war in Ukraine, the security guarantees Russia wants for itself, why a UN Security Council resolution may be the only durable guarantee against renewed conflict, and how the Ukraine war has permanently reshaped Russia's relationships with China, Europe, and the United States. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Timestamps 00:02:30 Is Russia Winning or Losing the War? 00:17:00 The Spirit of Anchorage and What a Peace Deal Requires 00:27:30 Has Russia Already Achieved Its War Aims? 00:33:00 Borders, Heavy Weapons, and the Risk of a Frozen Conflict 00:43:00 Why Russia Wants a UN Security Council Guarantee 00:49:00 Russia's Future with China, Europe, and the United States Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Arvind Gupta, co-founder and head of the Digital India Foundation  joins the Trialogue to discuss the role of technology in electoral politics, the importance of Y2K in jumpstarting India’s digital capacity,  the Indian concept of digital sovereignty, the difference between the Indian, American, Chinese, and European approaches to digital technology, and the significance of India, and Indians, to American Big Tech. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Deck: Arne Westad, Elihu Professor of History and Global Affairs at Yale University, joins the Trialogue to discuss his new book The Coming Storm, why the world today resembles the years before World War I more than the Cold War, what roles the U.S., China, India, and Russia are playing in this dangerous drama, and whether the fires burning from Ukraine to the South China Sea can be kept from merging into a global conflagration. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Time Stamps:  00:03:30 The Pre-WWI Parallel: Who Plays What Role 00:13:00 Taiwan, Korea, South China Sea 00:16:00 The China-India Rivalry 00:33:00 Will Regional Conflicts Stay Regional? 00:46:00 The U.S.-Britain Parallel and American Retrenchment 00:53:00 Who Has the Best Prospects Over 50 Years? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, leader of the Green Party of Iran and former senior IRGC commander joins the Trialogue from Tehran to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear question, relations with Russia and China, and the prospects for a negotiated settlement with the Trump administration. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Federico Petroni, senior analyst at Limes, Italy's leading geopolitical journal, joins the Trialogue to discuss Europe’s anger over the U.S. attack on Iran, NATO’s fraught future, Italy’s Mediterranean strategy, and its regional rivalries with France and Turkey,  Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Timestamps: 00:04:01 How the Iran War is Hitting Italy 00:11:16 NATO's Uncertain Future 00:15:30 Why Europe is Risking a Transatlantic Crisis 00:20:22 NATO's Real Purpose: Keeping Europe's Peace 00:22:15 Italy's Defense Priorities 00:24:39 Italy and the American Empire 00:28:44 The Libya Intervention and Its Aftermath 00:33:16 Turkey: Rival, Partner, or Both? 00:38:13 Italy's Mediterranean Strategy   00:47:27 Italy, China, and the Limits of Economic Openness Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Zhao Hai, Director of the International Politics Program in the National Institute for Global Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, returns to the Trialogue to discuss the impact of the US-Israeli war with Iran, the state of US-China trade relations, the future of international institutions, and the prospects of stabilizing cross-strait relations, among other subjects. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Timestamps: 00:01:22 Beijing's View on the U.S. War with Iran 00:06:09 China's Interests in the Middle East 00:13:06 China's Regional Strategy Going Forward 00:20:15 State of U.S.-China Economic Relations 00:41:43 The Taiwan Question 00:51:32 Ukraine Peace Prospects and China's Role 00:55:59 China-Europe Relations and the Atlantic Rift Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mathew Burrows, program lead of the Stimson Center's Strategic Foresight Hub, returns to the podcast for a forward-looking conversation. We discuss global demographic decline, the energy transition, the promises and limits of AI, the future of the transatlantic relationship, and China's role in a multipolar world. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Timestamps: 00:02:18 Demographics & the Aging World 00:06:02 AI, Automation, and the Labor Question 00:08:15 Can Population Decline Be Reversed? 00:12:40 Aging, Housing, and Intergenerational Tensions 00:15:38 Energy Transition, Renewables, and Nuclear 00:19:43 AI, Inequality, and the Future of Work 00:25:23 The Human Role in an Automated Economy 00:29:05 The Future of the Transatlantic Relationship 00:33:27 Europe Without the American Umbrella 00:42:01 China and the Multipolar World 00:47:07 Free-Floating Alignments and Global Order 00:50:41 Why Greater Eurasia May Be Best Positioned Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative magazine, joins the Trialogue to discuss the evolution of anti-interventionist thought on the American right. In this conversation we cover the origins of American empire, the extent of U.S. global commitments, the future of NATO, competition with China, and the strategic direction of U.S. foreign policy in Trump’s second term. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Timestamps: 00:01:37 The Origins of The American Conservative and Anti-Interventionist Conservatism 00:04:30 From Iraq War Dissent to “America First” 00:09:07 American Empire, NATO, and the Case for Retrenchment 00:29:19 Russia, Iran, and the Limits of Threat Inflation 00:38:08 China as a Peer Competitor and Managing Great-Power Competition 00:45:18 Grading Trump’s Second Term: Wars, Trade, and Immigration Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.