Thinking About the Second Nuclear Century

In this episode of Shifting Ground, hosts Nikolas Gvosdev and Larry Rubin are joined by Dr. Austin Long, Senior Nuclear Fellow at MIT, and Dr. Rachel Whitlark, Associate Professor at Georgia Tech and Associate Editor of Orbis, to explore the strategic landscape of the second nuclear century. Grounded in Dr. Long's recent commentary for Orbis, the conversation examines how emerging autonomous technologies and AI reshape nuclear deterrence, the concept of "conceal vs. reveal" capabilities, and the challenges of managing strategic stability in a tripolar environment among the US, Russia, and China.Related Reading* ⁠History, Strategy, and Technology: Thinking About the Second Nuclear Century⁠ by Dr. Austin LongExplore the special issue: Challenges of the Second Nuclear Century, Vol. 69, Issue 2⁠ Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

What prepares a leader for the high-pressure environment of the US government?In this episode of Shifting Ground, co-hosts Nick Gvosdev and Larry Rubin sit down with The Hon. John Tien, Distinguished Professor of Practice at Georgia Tech’s Sam Nunn School of International Affairs. Drawing on his extensive career spanning the military, the private sector, and high-level government service—including a tenure as Deputy Secretary of the US Department of Homeland Security—Tien offers unique insights from four different presidential administrations.The discussion explores:* The Role of the Individual: How presidential leadership, personal networks, and human experience shape strategy at the highest levels of government.* Evolution of Homeland Security: Reflections on how the mission has shifted from domestic concerns in the 90s to foreign counter-terrorism post-9/11, and the current challenges of politicization.* Omnipolicy & Strategy: A deep dive into complex issues like the fentanyl crisis, illustrating how domestic and foreign policy goals are now inextricably linked.* The Future of the Global Order: Perspectives on navigating a new global operating system, marked by transactional diplomacy and the rise of autocracy.Shifting Ground is the flagship podcast of the Orbis Journal of World Affairs, produced by the Foreign Policy Research Institute and the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech). Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of Shifting Ground, Nick Gvosdev and Larry Rubin are joined by Phil Wasielewski, a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. A veteran of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations and the US Marine Corps, Phil brings a lifetime of experience—from the end of the Soviet era to the frontlines of Afghanistan—to a wide-ranging discussion on the nature of strategy in an unpredictable world. The conversation touches on the role of intelligence in modern warfare, the enduring need for human analysis, as well as reflections on Russia’s war in Ukraine, and lessons learned from Afghanistan.Related Reading* Russia After Putin - Phil Wasielewski, Foreign Policy Research Institute Shifting Ground is the flagship podcast of the Orbis Journal of World Affairs, produced by the Foreign Policy Research Institute and the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech). Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of Shifting Ground, Nick Gvosdev and Larry Rubin are joined by Mohammed Soliman, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute and author of West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East. Soliman challenges our traditional geopolitical mental maps, arguing that the term “Middle East” no longer explains the realities of today’s integrated political and economic landscape. Instead, he proposes viewing the region from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean as a single, cohesive space: “West Asia”. We dive deep into his thesis on how American grand strategy must adapt to an era where rigid, Cold War-style alliances are giving way to flexible, interest-based “minilateral” coalitions. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to The Ties That Bind, a project of the Foreign Policy Research Institute examining the past, present, and future of NATO and the transatlantic relationship.This season we examine how Western European NATO members like Germany are shifting their defense policies, pursuing rearmament, and what lies ahead for the future of European security.This week we are pleased to feature a conversation with FPRI President Aaron Stein and Roderich Kiesewetter, a Member of the German Bundestag (CDU/CSU) who has held various command and staff positions, including at the EU Council , NATO and the German Ministry of Defense. The two discuss the strategic framework of the recently released German defense policy, key reforms and capabilities, and what strength means in the new European security environment. You can read a transcript of their conversation here.The third season of the Ties That Bind is generously supported by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung USA. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of Shifting Ground, hosts Larry Rubin and Nick Gvosdev are joined by Dmitri Alperovitch, Chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, co-founder of CrowdStrike, and author of World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century. Alperovitch discusses the collision of cybersecurity and international affairs, arguing that the cyber “problem” is fundamentally a geopolitical issue driven by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Aaron Stein, President of the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), talks with James Swartout, VP of Strategy at Ursa Major Technologies, about his career in national security and how his company is revolutionizing aerospace and defense.Explore more from Behind the Front here. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Geo-economic and country risk expert Rachel Ziemba joins Nick and Larry to discuss the intersection of government policy and global commerce. This episode explores how sovereign balance sheets and coercive tools like sanctions have become primary instruments of modern statecraft, fundamentally shifting the landscape of global commerce.Related Reading: * Rachel’s portion of the Global Order After Ukraine Symposium here: ⁠Reassessing Sanctions Amid Shifting Global Order: Responding to Experimentation* Read more of Rachel’s insights in her newsletter, Weaponized Economy. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this episode of Shifting Ground, Admiral James “Sandy” Winnefeld, Jr. (ret.) introduces his concept of the “global operating system” (GOS)—which includes the rules-based international order and the global economy—explaining that its foundation of international stability is at risk of catastrophic failure due to geopolitical cycles, political polarization, and the overextension of the prevailing power.Read Admiral Winnefeld’s essay ⁠The Principle Challenge: Arresting the Decline of the Global Operating System Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the Ties That Bind, a project of the Foreign Policy Research Institute examining the past, present, and future of NATO and the transatlantic relationship.We often assume our safety is a “government problem,” but guests Admiral Rob Bauer, the former Chair of the NATO Military Committee, and Strategic Communications Advisor Eleonora Russell argue that this mindset is our greatest vulnerability. Drawing from their 2025 book, If You Want Peace, Prepare for War: A Blueprint for Deterrence, they challenge the idea that military strength alone is enough to protect our future.In this special episode of the Ties That Bind we discuss the core lessons from the book, what a “whole of society” approach really entails, how to effectively rebuild trust and engage citizens and industry, and what the future of the alliance may look like if we start fighting for the “we” in a world of “me.” Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe