Tariff tensions: Avoiding an EU-US trade war

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Tobias Gehrke, ECFR senior policy fellow, for a 15-minute Emergency Room episode dissecting the collapse of an EU-US trade deal. President Donald Trump’s last-minute letter, threatening to impose tariffs of 30% on the EU by August 1st, shattered expectations of a negotiated settlement—and prompted EU member states to prepare a €93bn retaliation package which targets American goods. Mark and Tobias explore why Trump upended talks, the EU’s hesitation to deploy its anti-coercion instrument and the urgent need for political (not technocratic) engagement. As trade tensions collide with security priorities like Ukraine, can Europe wield its economic leverage to avert a full-blown trade war?The podcast was recorded on July 14th, 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Kobzova, ECFR senior policy fellow, and Camille Grand, ECFR distinguished policy fellow, to discuss ECFR’s new European Security Programme and the war in Ukraine. They take a “beyond the horizon” view of the war, considering what Europe’s medium- and long-term strategy towards Ukraine should look like. This links directly to the new programme’s mission, which was created as a response to the short-term thinking which characterises perspectives on the Russia-Ukraine war—and European security more broadly.  How might the conflict between Russia and Ukraine evolve over the coming months? What role is the US playing in this trajectory? And what kind of security environment can Europeans expect in the future?This episode was recorded on July 10th 2025. Bookshelf: Travels In Arabia Deserta by Charles M. Doughty.The Price of Peace: Money, Democracy and the Life of John Maynard Keynes by Zachary D. Carter.Preventing the next war: A European plan for Ukraine­ by Camille Grand, Jana Kobzova and Nicu Popescu. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Henry Farrell, ECFR council member and professor at John Hopkins University, to discuss Henry’s new book “Underground Economy”, co-authored by Abraham Newman. In their take, globalisation has brought interdependence—which is being weaponised as a tool for strategic advantage. As the main facilitator of global interdependence, America exploits countries’ embeddedness in the US-led global order and uses its financial position to its own strategic advantage.  But what are the implications of America weaponising this interdependence? How can key actors exercise power in this hyperconnected system? And what challenges and opportunities does Europe face in this competitive and interconnected environment?  Bookshelf: Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy- Henry Farrell and Abe Newman  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Recorded live from ECFR’s Annual Council Meeting 2025, this week’s podcast features Mark Leonard in conversation with Ivan Krastev, Chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and permanent fellow at the Institute of Human Sciences in Vienna, and Carl Bildt, former prime minister and foreign minister of Sweden as well as co-chair of ECFR’s council.They discuss the new ECFR report “Trump’s European revolution”, which draws on data from a new international opinion poll. The conversation explores how Donald Trump is transforming Europe’s geopolitical landscape and the identities of its political parties, fueling security fears and deepening divisions. They also examine how demographic shifts and immigration are changing societal attitudes and political dynamics across Europe.This podcast episode was recorded on June 27th 2025.Bookshelf:Trump’s European revolution, by Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand, former NATO assistant secretary general and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, for a 15-minute Emergency Room episode dissecting the high-stakes NATO summit in The Hague. Against a turbulent geopolitical backdrop, world leaders navigated President Donald Trump’s push for a 5% GDP defence-spending target, their ongoing support for Ukraine, and Russia’s long-term threat. Mark and Camille explore the summit’s carefully choreographed outcomes, including a reaffirmed Article 5 commitment and no formal withdrawal of US troops—despite looming reviews of America’s presence in Europe. Can NATO balance Trump’s demands with European autonomy? Or is this merely a fragile truce among a shifting alliance?This episode was recorded on June 25th, 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by the deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Eran Etzion, policy planning director for the Israeli foreign ministry and former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council.Mark and his guests break down how the conflict has developed since last Friday’s emergency podcast and explore possible future scenarios. The discussion looks at the conflict from the Israeli and the Iranian perspectives, taking into account also the reactions of G7 states and the likely US response. What are Israel’s and Iran’s options in the coming weeks and months? What might a diplomatic way out of the conflict look like? Is this even still a possibility? And what could the repercussions be if America decided to join the war in support of Israel?Bookshelf:“Autocracy, Inc.” by Anne ApplebaumEurope must act now to prevent a major war between Israel and Iran by Ellie Geranmayeh Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, for a 15-minute Emergency Room episode diving into Israel’s massive overnight attack on Iran. Using 200 fighter jets, Israel targeted over 100 military and nuclear sites, assassinating senior Iranian commanders and scientists. The result is a situation which is escalating far beyond October 2024’s tit-for-tat strikes. As Iran responds by launching drone attacks on Israel and debating broader retaliation, Mark and Ellie discuss the damage to Iran’s nuclear programme, the potential for a multi-layered Israeli campaign, and how the delicate US-Iran nuclear talks are now teetering on the brink of collapse. With Arab states condemning Israel and the US distancing itself from its ally’s actions, what can Europe do to avert a full-scale regional war? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A humanitarian crisis in Gaza; question marks around Iran; unstable governments in eastern Europe; and the growth of China’s economic and military might. All are cause for concern—and all provide the backdrop to the Trump administration’s approach to foreign policy, which represents the biggest generational shift since the cold war. This week Mark Leonard is joined by Dan Caldwell, former senior adviser at the Pentagon, and Curt Mills, executive editor of the American Conservative, to talk about what is influencing Donald Trump’s foreign policy. The president, and many key players in defence, agree that constant military build-up and the steady accruing of debt—which has characterised foreign policy since Reagan—has left America with little to show. The prevailing ideology of conservative anti-globalism is characterised by the US paring back military presence outside the Western hemisphere and a “realist” approach to trade.But the administration has dissenting voices, in particular those advocating a more hawkish policy towards Iran. Mark, Dan and Curt take a deep dive into the sentiments and personalities influencing the second Trump era’s foreign policy, and consider what the world—and especially Europeans—can expect for the months ahead.Bookshelf:The Bin Ladens: An Arabian Family in the American Century by Steve Coll The Achilles Trap: Saddam Hussein, the C.I.A., and the Origins of America's Invasion of Iraq by Steve CollCollapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union by Vladislav M. ZubokThe World of the Cold War 1945-1991 by Vladislav M. Zubok Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How policymakers respond to Europe’s many challenges—from Russian aggression to sluggish economic growth to the shift to clean energy - will shape the continent for decades to come. In the face of these trials, however, they overlook something slower but equally as important: the global demographic transition.This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Alberto Rizzi, ECFR policy fellow, to discuss what effect a shrinking and ageing global population is having on 21st-century geopolitics. Building on Alberto’s new policy brief, they discusses the changing demography of the EU and European states and broader global trends—from China and Russia’s dwindling birth and death rates, to America’s relatively optimistic demographic outlook.But is a bigger population always an inherent advantage? And how can European policymakers maintain Europe’s global power in the face of demographic change? The podcast was recorded on June 5th 2025Bookshelf:Markets, migrants, microchips: European power in a world of demographic change by Alberto Rizzi Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director general at the Royal United Services Institute and former Labour government advisor, for an Emergency Room episode dissecting the UK’s newly unveiled Strategic Defence Review (SDR). Prime minister Keir Starmer has committed to increasing defence spending to 3% GDP by 2030, expanding the UK’s military capabilities with 12 attack submarines, boosting munitions production, and possibly reviving an air-launched nuclear capability. Together Mark and Malcolm discuss how—amid Russia’s war in Ukraine and America’s talk of reducing its European presence—the SDR focuses on leveraging AI and uncrewed systems, as well as a “NATO first, Europe first” approach. They also consider how to balance transatlantic relations with closer EU defence cooperation. Can Britain drive a technological and geopolitical shift? Or will fiscal and industrial constraints limit its ambitions?The podcast was recorded on June 2nd, 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.