#13 - Credit Guarantee Feedback Loop

While the European short-term outlook does not look very promising, the same can be said about the long-term prospect according to the Draghi report released last week. Gilles Moëc, AXA Group Chief Economist and AXA IM Head of Research, has braved the 400 pages of compact macro that go with it and opens, at the end, a window on what is happening on the other side of the Atlantic with the precious contribution from Matt Pacifico, Head of US Investment Grade Research at AXA Investment Managers. Recorded on 16 september 2024 An AXA IM podcastProduced by GoomMusic performed by NeedmospaceMusical sample : (Don't Fear) The Reaper, Blue Oyster Cult******************************************************************************This marketing communication does not constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers a solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date. All information in this document is established on data made public by official providers of economic and market statistics. AXA Investment Managers disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this document. All exhibits included in this document, unless stated otherwise, are as of the publication date of this document.Furthermore, due to the subjective nature of these opinions and analysis, these data, projections, forecasts, anticipations, hypothesis, etc. are not necessary used or followed by AXA IM’s portfolio management teams or its affiliates, who may act based on their own opinions. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part is, unless otherwise authorised by AXA IM, prohibited.Past performance is not a guide to current or future performance, and any performance or return data displayed does not take into account commissions and costs incurred when issuing or redeeming units. References to league tables and awards are not an indicator of future performance or places in league tables or awards and should not be construed as an endorsement of any AXA IM company or their products or services. Please refer to the websites of the sponsors/issuers for information regarding the criteria on which the awards/ratings are based. The value of investments, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Exchange-rate fluctuations may also affect the value of their investment.  Due to this and the initial charge that is usually made, an investment is not usually suitable as a short term holding.Issued in the UK by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Registered in England and Wales No: 01431068. Registered Office: 22 Bishopsgate London EC2N 4BQ. In other jurisdictions, this document is issued by AXA Investment Managers SA’s affiliates in those countries.Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In those uncertain times for France, we put our faith in two things: the Constitution and arithmetic. The combination of the two provides a good guide out of the current maze.With a precious contribution from Gilles Guibout, Head of Equity Europe at AXA Investment Managers, who sheds light on past and likely future market reactions.Recorded on 17 July 2024An AXA IM podcastProduced by GoomMusic performed by NeedmospaceMusical sample : Genesis - Land of confusion******************************************************************************This marketing communication does not constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers a solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date. All information in this document is established on data made public by official providers of economic and market statistics. AXA Investment Managers disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this document. All exhibits included in this document, unless stated otherwise, are as of the publication date of this document.Furthermore, due to the subjective nature of these opinions and analysis, these data, projections, forecasts, anticipations, hypothesis, etc. are not necessary used or followed by AXA IM’s portfolio management teams or its affiliates, who may act based on their own opinions. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part is, unless otherwise authorised by AXA IM, prohibited.Past performance is not a guide to current or future performance, and any performance or return data displayed does not take into account commissions and costs incurred when issuing or redeeming units. References to league tables and awards are not an indicator of future performance or places in league tables or awards and should not be construed as an endorsement of any AXA IM company or their products or services. Please refer to the websites of the sponsors/issuers for information regarding the criteria on which the awards/ratings are based. The value of investments, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Exchange-rate fluctuations may also affect the value of their investment.  Due to this and the initial charge that is usually made, an investment is not usually suitable as a short term holding.Issued in the UK by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Registered in England and Wales No: 01431068. Registered Office: 22 Bishopsgate London EC2N 4BQ. In other jurisdictions, this document is issued by AXA Investment Managers SA’s affiliates in those countries.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

The European political agenda resumes after the interlude of the electoral campaign, and it is unquestionably marked by another campaign, that of the snap general elections in France. The prospect of a populist victory would make the EU Commission’s approach to trade with China even more delicate, as the results of the anti-subsidy investigation into imports of Chinese EVs came up. We will benefit from Irina Topa-Serry's insights into the position of China and its neighbour India, which is climbing the global economic ladder at a breathtaking pace.Recorded on 17 June 2024An AXA IM podcastProduced by GoomMusic performed by Needmospace******************************************************************************This marketing communication does not constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers a solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date. All information in this document is established on data made public by official providers of economic and market statistics. AXA Investment Managers disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this document. All exhibits included in this document, unless stated otherwise, are as of the publication date of this document.Furthermore, due to the subjective nature of these opinions and analysis, these data, projections, forecasts, anticipations, hypothesis, etc. are not necessary used or followed by AXA IM’s portfolio management teams or its affiliates, who may act based on their own opinions. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part is, unless otherwise authorised by AXA IM, prohibited.Past performance is not a guide to current or future performance, and any performance or return data displayed does not take into account commissions and costs incurred when issuing or redeeming units. References to league tables and awards are not an indicator of future performance or places in league tables or awards and should not be construed as an endorsement of any AXA IM company or their products or services. Please refer to the websites of the sponsors/issuers for information regarding the criteria on which the awards/ratings are based. The value of investments, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Exchange-rate fluctuations may also affect the value of their investment.  Due to this and the initial charge that is usually made, an investment is not usually suitable as a short term holding.Issued in the UK by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Registered in England and Wales No: 01431068. Registered Office: 22 Bishopsgate London EC2N 4BQ. In other jurisdictions, this document is issued by AXA Investment Managers SA’s affiliates in those countries.Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

As the Merkel era is drawing to a close, we take the occasion of the federal elections on September 26th to take a good look at three macroeconomic challenges facing Germany and the ramifications for the rest of Europe : Deglobalisation risk, the European economic integration process and Green transition If you enjoy listening to Alphaville and Scorpions, you will also enjoy this podcast. Guest: Evelyn Herrmann, Bank of America Recommendation: Series of podcasts "Germany: Memories of a Nation", by Neil MacGregor (director of the British Museum) For BBC Radio 4 link https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04dwbwz/episodes/downloads Credits: Alphaville - "Forever Young" / Scorpions - "Wind of Change" All the other podcasts: https://www.axa-im.com/macrocast Recorded on September 9th, produced by AXA IMHosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

As we relaunch macrocast after a hiatus of a few months and in conversational format, I was looking for someone who would help us to think through the noise and guide us in this post COVID world. I immediately thought of Jean Pisani-Ferry, who enlightens us with his wisdom and optimism. You will hear him in this podcast. Then I thought of Fleetwood Mac, in an equally hopeful but more musical vein. You'll hear them too. Guest : Jean Pisani-Ferry (https://twitter.com/pisaniferry) Recommendations :  - Jean Pisani-Ferry : "Political Cleavages and Social Inequalities", Amory Gethin/Clara Martinez-Toledano/Thomas Piketty - Gilles Moëc : "The Price of Nostalgia, America’s Self-Defeating Economic Retreat", Adam S. Posen Credits : Fleetwood Mac - "Don't stop" Macrocast weekly newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/insights?p_r_p_categoryId=12673554 Recorded on June 8th, produced by Axa IMHosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

If Gilles Moëc does not always shine by his optimism, for this last podcast of the season he dares a duet with Mr Blue Sky (ELO). Believe it or not, there is talk of a "forward guidance" that could provide economic agents with an explicit – albeit flexible – sequence for the fiscal stance across the next three to five years, leading to a solid and sustainable recovery. Credits Olivier Blanchard's paper from January 2013 : https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1301.pdf "Mr Blue Sky", ELO Macrocasta Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-fiscal-forward-guidance-needed/23818 Recorded on July 13th, produced by AxaHosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

We don't know if David Bowie was a Democrat, but he is with Gilles Moëc today to talk about the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions" Act (HEROES). But is pumping up more pent-up demand a long term solution? On the monetary policy side, the Fed seem to be thinking hard about yield control. Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-us-policy-makers-looking-for-a-plan-b/23818 Credits : David Bowie "Heroes" Recorded on July 6th, produced by AxaHosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Only a strong political stimulus seems to be able to shift from general emergency support to long-term demand management. With this in mind, the debate on how best to protect jobs will be key. To tackle this thorny issue, Gilles Moëc is supported this week by the eternal Bee Gees, who are as determined as ever to stay alive. Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-job-protection-and-demand-management/23818 Crédits : The Bee Gees "Stayin' Alive" Recorded on June 29th, produced by AxaHosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

The success of the new TLTRO shows that pledging the governments’ balance sheet was certainly the right thing to do in the emergency, nevertheless the medium-term consequences of those guarantees need to be explored. Fortunately we will not be alone in this questioning. There was Genesis of course, always willing to "share his peace", but there was especially Apolline Menut. Good listening. Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-51-credit-guarantee-feedback-loop/23818Credits : Genesis, "Supper's ready" Recorded on June 22nd, produced by AxaHosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

To talk about money supply growth, Gilles Moëc once again invokes the 1970s. But this week music shares the top billing with Milton Friedman. And ABBA can shout it 3 times in a row, Milton knows what he's talking about when it comes to MONEY.Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-warning-shot/23818Crédits : ABBA, "Money Money Money", Milton Friedman Speaks: Money and Inflation Recorded on June 15th, produced by AxaHosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.