Kopi Time E184 - US Trip Notes

Richard Borsuk, author, researcher, and avid Indonesia watcher, joins Kopi Time to discuss his favourite country. We talk about the current economic and investment environment, market risks, and the need for stability and credibility. Richard’s seminal book on the Salim Group and Suharto’s Indonesia has deep insights and relevance for the current juncture. From the role of large personalities in charting the nation’s course to the importance of institution building, we touch on Indonesia’s rich tapestry of diversity and multiple narratives. Richard’s insights are invaluable in understanding SE Asia’s most populous nation. Notes:  During the conversation, the guest describes the Habibie administration as the "Tall Order." He meant the Prabowo administration.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We discuss fintech innovation within the context of geoeconomics and AI with Chengyi Ong, Director of Policy and Regulatory Strategy for APAC at Circle, the company behind USDC stablecoin. We begin by taking stock of the depth and breadth of global digital transactions across industrial and developing markets. We then focus on the US legislative efforts to bring digital currencies and transactions under an industry-supportive regulatory framework.  Chengyi then goes deeper into stablecoins, going over their global reach and adoption, while addressing concerns on local currency and financial system disintermediation. We then discuss SE Asia’s fintech stack, on the innovation dynamic and demand for such services. We conclude on trust/transparency/security issues embedded in fintech in the AI era.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this special episode, we feature a conversation recorded recently in Delhi with the government of India’s Chief Economic Advisor, Dr Anantha Nageswaran. I began by asking Dr Nageswaran for an overview of the current state of the economy. We then move on to buffers, from energy to financial, to deal with a world of frequently occurring shocks. The conversation then delves into the high interest rate environment, supply side constraints, India’s fiscal dynamics, risk premium, investment environment, trade friction and liberalisation policy, AI disruption, relationship with the US, challenges with pursuing strategic autonomy, laying the foundation of high-end manufacturing through activist policies, green transition, outlook for exports, agriculture, and the exchange rate. Wide ranging and excellent insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This podcast is about a collaboration. Bain & Company, DBS, and Vriens & Partners joined hands to prepare this report on Southeast Asia, with analysis of recent developments and scenarios about the next decade. I worked with Bain’s Ravi Vijayaraghavan, Senior Partner, and Hans Vriens, Founder and Managing Partner of Vriens & Partners on this report, with strong support from several analysts in the three firms. You can download the report here. In the podcast, I go over the salient points of the report, flagging the innovative scenario analysis tool deployed. Southeast Asian economies have held up remarkably well despite recent turbulence, but structural differences across countries are widening the quality and concentration of growth. Our base case forecast for 2026 to 2035 remains broadly intact at 4.8% in this updated edition, but with widened range of possible outcomes, amid shifting global conditions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Veteran US political and policy analyst Steve Okun, founder and CEO of APAC Advisors, joins Kopi Time to offer a cogent analysis of the US political cycle. We begin by assessing the gravity of the November mid-term elections, going over the domestic and foreign policy implications. Steve then details the momentum of key races and issues at stake for the voters. We talk about the elections likely to be a referendum on Donald Trump’s presidency, the role of special interests, and the predictive power of polls. We consider a set of scenario analyses, from a blue sweep to status quo, and even the possibility of a constitutional crisis in January 2027. We conclude with how all this will set things up for the 2028 presidential elections.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I just came back from a trip to the US, where I had the privilege to interact with a number of public and private sector officials. In this podcast, I lay out eight key takeaways, all under the overarching shadow of tense geopolitics and ballooning debt burden. (i) AI and the economy, (ii) the dollar, (iii) International relations, (iv) Midterm elections, (v) Fed and monetary policy, (vi) Fiscal dominance, (vii) Market risks, and (viii) Middle powers.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We welcome Ethan Wu, Asia business and finance editor at The Economist, to Kopi Time. We cover Asia’s remarkably strong exports cycle, regional resilience to this year’s energy shock, issues related to trade, tech, and national security, frictions with the US, China over-capacity, direction of RMB, and global rebalancing needs.  Ethan is very well-versed in regional issues; this conversation highlights his astute insights.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gaurav Keerthi, CEO of StrongKeep, a Singapore-based cybersecurity startup that provides SMEs with AI-driven security and compliance platforms, returns to Kopi Time to discuss the topic of the moment. In this wide ranging conversation, we begin by talking about why secure AI is a fundamentally different proposition compared to traditional software. Gaurav walks us through the essence of an AI-driven large language model, the unintended consequences that can arise even without hallucination or bad actor involvement, and the layers of risks involved. We comb through recent headlines to underscore the quick changing environment around cyber safety and security. We then take stock of the resources needed to deal with this constantly evolving risk, and how that leaves particularly small businesses vulnerable. Gaurav calls for cybersecurity in the AI era to be considered a public good that informs all business and regulatory decision-making. He is also keen to see a fundamental reshaping of cyber infrastructure, with built-in, publicly funded and monitored guardrails and reporting. The silver lining? The well-intentioned efforts toward innovation and safety can keep pace with the pernicious aspects. There is hope.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Manu Bhaskaran, founding director and head of Centennial Asia Advisors, returns to Kopi Time ahead of Singapore’s 61st birthday. We begin by taking stock of Singapore’s recent economic performance, with growth accelerating and investments surging. Manu walks us through the sectoral outcomes and productivity developments, noting that while the electronics industry is leading the charge, growth is more broad-based. We then talk about health and education outcomes, demographic challenges, and the thorny issue of inequality. Manu shares his ideas on social safety expansion, especially with respect to the cost of childcare, but also elderly care. We transition to Singapore’s symbiosis with neighbouring jurisdictions, particularly Johor. We conclude with geopolitics, and the challenges of balancing great power rivalry.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, we get expert view on the ongoing, historic tech wave. Ravi Vijayaraghavan, head of APAC Technology & Cloud Services practice at Bain and Company, offers a wide range of insights, starting with the implication of the unprecedented scale of capital spending on AI build-out taking place presently. We compare this tech cycle with past ones, consider sectors that are in vogue (hardware) and that are not (software). Ravi shares his observations on the state of high tech in China, US, North Asia, South-East Asia, and South Asia. We also discuss various moon-shot ideas at the frontier of tech. We conclude with the ethics of AI, and regulatory implications.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.