The Payments Exchange - Episode 2: Ethiopian Birr Flotation: What's Next?

One hundred days into Donald Trump’s second term, U.S.-Africa relations stand at a critical juncture. Early signals point to a blend of unpredictability, transactional diplomacy, and shifting strategic priorities—raising pressing questions about the future of trade and investment between the two regions. While the administration has yet to articulate a coherent Africa strategy, several key developments were already shaping the landscape.Uncertainty looms over the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), while diplomatic tensions with key partners such as South Africa threatens to disrupt longstanding ties. At the same time, there were early signs of a more sustained U.S. focus on the continent. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) appeared poised for an expanded mandate, and senior appointments suggested a growing emphasis on African expertise within key government agencies.This timely webinar brought together experts from the worlds of policy, business, and diplomacy to examine the administration’s early moves and what they signal for Africa’s investment climate. Speakers explored whether the U.S. was likely to adopt a more strategic, long-term approach—or whether Africa would remain on the margins of American foreign policy. The discussion also addressed investor expectations around trade policy, financing mechanisms, and broader geopolitical engagement.This conversation offers an in-depth look at the evolving direction of U.S.-Africa relations, and the opportunities—and risks—that lie ahead.Speakers:- Jonny Gass, Research & Strategic Planning Manager, Invest Africa- Aubrey Hruby, Senior Fellow, Africa Centre, Atlantic Council- Cameron Hudson, Former White House Director for African Affairs; Senior Fellow, Centre for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)- Gyude Moore, Former Minster of Public Works, Liberia; Senior Fellow, Centre for Global Development

As part of The Payments Exchange series in collaboration with Crown Agents Bank, this episode brings you a critical discussion adapted from a recent webinar. On July 29, 2024, the Ethiopian Central Bank made a historic decision to float the Birr. This episode explores the potential impacts on Ethiopia’s trade and investment landscape, foreign exchange dynamics, and how businesses and international organisations can navigate these significant changes and capitalise on this transformative moment for Ethiopia. Featuring: Barkot Tekle, Head of Central & Development Banks, Emerging Market Financial Institutions at Crown Agents Bank Duncan Keil, Chief Executive Officer at ICAP Africa Zemedeneh Negatu, Global Chairman at Fairfax Africa Fund & Invest Africa Advisory Board Member Patricia Rodrigues, Associate Director at Control Risks

At the end of May, South Africans went to the polls for national and provincial elections that marked a significant shift in the country's political landscape. After more than two decades of waning voter support, the African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority in the National Assembly. This historic change for a party that has held unitary control over the executive branch since the first racially inclusive post-apartheid elections in 1994. In this recent vote, however, the ANC secured just 40% of the national vote and 159 out of 400 seats in the National Assembly. This necessitated the formation of a coalition government, wherein the ANC retains 20 out of 32 cabinet posts, the Democratic Alliance holds 6, and the remaining portfolios are shared among smaller parties (click here to see the new National Executive). To delve into what this historic election and the new coalition government mean for investors and businesses operating in and around South Africa, Ipeleng Selele, Chairperson of Brand South Africa; Seamus Duggan, Director for Global Risk Analysis at Control Risks; and Jeff Gable, Chief Economist at Absa, share their insights on the election results, new cabinet, and the challenges and opportunities for investors and businesses created by this new political landscape in South Africa.

Welcome to the first episode of The Payments Exchange mini-series. Over the course of four episodes, we will explore the payments ecosystem across the African continent with Crown Agents Bank and a guest expert. In this episode, Chris Partridge, VP & Head of Bank and Non-Bank Financial institutions at Crown Agents Bank, and Mark O'Sullivan, CEO of IPT Africa dive into the dynamic landscape of payment systems in Africa, highlighting the current trends and challenges shaping the industry and its prospects. From mobile money to digital wallets, they uncover the key factors driving change and discuss the implications for businesses, consumers, and policymakers.

In this podcast, we explore the evolving risk landscape in Africa and its impact on trade, investment, and gender. Genevieve Ahinful, Head of Political Risk and Trade Credit at Africa Specialty Risks, and Tokunboh Ishmael, Managing Director & Co-Founder, Alitheia Capital, discuss changing perceptions, offering insights into the opportunities and challenges for investors, and the need for companies to implement a gender-focused approach to their overall strategy.

In 2024, Africa grapples with a complex landscape, encompassing supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the persistent impact of COVID-19, rising inflation, and conflicts in the Middle East. Amidst these challenges, African nations are urged to leverage industrialisation opportunities, potentially catapulting the continent's GDP by 20%. Anticipating economic growth, countries like Angola and Mozambique are poised for a 6.2% expansion in 2024, surpassing the previous year's trajectory. Mozambique stands as the 16th fastest-growing economy, engaging in ongoing debt restructuring talks. While most African nations expect a relief from inflationary pressures, Angola and São Tomé and Principe may continue grappling with double-digit inflation, primarily driven by elevated oil prices. Lusophone countries, navigating the delicate balance between revenue generation from fossil fuels and the imperative to transition to clean energy, spotlight Mozambique's focus on Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) projects. Mozambique positions itself as a significant player in the global LNG market, seizing heightened demand amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As Africa's second-largest oil producer, Angola aspires to achieve 80% renewable power by 2025. Recent market reforms attract a diverse spectrum of investors, marking a departure from Chinese dominance to include Japanese, Middle Eastern, and European stakeholders. Even in island jurisdictions like Cape Verde and São Tomé and Principe, the imperative to transition to clean energy is evident. São Tomé sets an ambitious target of increasing the proportion of renewable energy to 50% by 2023, focusing on solar and hydro projects. Overcoming the current dependence on imported diesel for 90% of its energy, São Tomé and Principe envisions a sustainable energy future that yields inclusive growth. The investment landscape in Lusophone countries is encouraging, with international investors increasingly showing a willingness to support pivotal projects. This growing confidence within the investment community bodes well for the energy transition and overall economic development in these strategic markets.

In 2024, Africa is set to be the second-fastest growing major region, with most countries experiencing accelerated economic growth compared to 2023. East Africa, led by Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda, is poised to be at the forefront, contributing to Africa's real GDP increase from 2.6% in 2023 to 3.2%. However, political risks may rise due to elections in some major African economies. Following prominent multilateral events in 2023, including the inaugural Africa Climate Summit, Africa's vulnerability to climate change has gained greater attention. East Africa lags in meeting its $739.4 billion regional target for climate-resilient development by 2030, impacted by factors like drought and conflicts affecting growth in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia. Although renewable energy investments have driven recent growth, more efforts are needed to meet the region's escalating energy access demands, and build climate-resilient infrastructure to support the region’s growing population. Intra-African trade stands at 13%, significantly lower than the EU’s 60%. As a key member of the East African Community, Tanzania, strategically located on the Indian Ocean, aims to enhance regional integration, boosting intra-African trade. The moderinisation of the Port of Dar es Salaam will play a crucial role in facilitating trade with landlocked countries in the region like Uganda and Rwanda, ensuring that they are “land-linked”. Despite numerous tailwinds, including sustained economic growth, economic diversification, increased regional integration, and favourable demographics, East Africa’s promising growth potential calls for continued investment in the region’s infrastructure. Addressing the current challenges of poor infrastructure, which adds between 30% to 40% to the costs of goods traded among African countries, will further enhance the region’s positive trajectory and capitalise on the favourable conditions to yield inclusive growth.

The economic dynamics and political landscape within the framework of Africa’s North markets for the 2024 fiscal year present a nuanced scenario.  The growth in North Africa is estimated to have decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 4.1 percent in 2022. This decline was attributed to the sharp contraction in Libya, accounting for 6 percent of the region’s GDP, and the impact of drought in Morocco, constituting 13 percent of the region’s GDP. A more robust growth trajectory is anticipated in 2023–24, averaging 4.5 percent. This resurgence is underpinned by a strong recovery in both Libya and Morocco, along with the consolidation of gains in other countries.   In contrast, Egypt’s growth almost doubled from 3.3% in 2021 to 6.1% in 2022 due to greater investments in infrastructure, higher gas production and increased vessel traffic through the Suez Canal.   Among the major North African markets, Morocco is poised to experience one of the most substantial rates of growth acceleration after a pronounced slowdown resulting from drought, escalating energy prices, and a deceleration of growth in the EU, its primary trading partner. Morocco's GDP is projected to expand by over 3.1% this year, a significant improvement from the 0.8% recorded in 2022. North Africa holds immense potential to meet its energy needs and act as an alternative source for the EU’s oil and gas requirements particularly in Libya and Algeria, given its proximity to Europe and the EU’s shift away from Russia’s oil and gas.   However, concerns persist regarding the quality of growth and its sustainability in the future. Sub-Saharan Africa has witnessed an upsurge in attempts to destabilise governments through unconstitutional or violent means in recent years. Coups, violent extremism, riots, and social unrest have become more prevalent. The region remains susceptible to significant challenges, including climate shocks and the volatile political situation in Libya.  While pockets of economic resilience exist, the region confronts notable challenges related to political stability and the long-term sustainability of economic growth. Addressing these challenges will be pivotal in fostering a more stable and prosperous future in North Africa’s markets. 

Southern Africa’s regional economic performance in 2023 compares unfavourably to that of other sub-regions, with growth slowing to 3.3% from 4% in 2022. The outlook for 2024 is uncertain due to the Southern Africa region remaining subject to significant downside risks. Over the 2023-2024 period, six Southern African countries (Botswana, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe) will hold presidential and/or parliamentary elections. These elections could exert upward pressure on wages and public spending, challenging fiscal discipline and the implementation of bold structural reforms.   Nevertheless, the continent has shown resilience despite significant shocks. Southern Africa’s overall outlook for 2024 remains cautiously optimistic, with growth expected to rebound to 4%. This growth is set to be broad-based, with top performers for the fiscal year likely to include Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Zambia.   Despite grappling with high debt distress, exceeding 104% of GDP, Zambia’s GDP has consistently grown over the last two years. Zambia is poised to experience an improved macroeconomic environment, driven by a strengthened mining policy and a more reliable electricity supply. The Mauritian economy is projected to grow by 5% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024, spearheaded by the tourism sector. Nevertheless, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with higher living costs in Europe, will lead to greater monetary tightening. Struggles with a power, logistics, and growth crisis have impacted South Africa’s public finances. South Africa’s medium-term outlook remains dim, but vital reforms are gaining traction.  

The economic dynamics and political landscape in the context of Africa’s Francophone markets for the 2024 fiscal year paint a complex picture. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remains the largest intra-African trading nation; its share of total African trade increased by 35.7% from $12.19 bn in 2021 to $16.53 bn in 2022. This is largely a result of government commitments to regional integration and strengthening cooperation across the continent. Cote d’Ivoire also stands out as a critical contributor to intra-African trade, with the country’s short and medium-term economic outlook remaining positive, albeit slightly below pre-COVID-19 levels. Among the major Francophone markets, Morocco is expected to enjoy one of the strongest rates of growth acceleration following a sharp slowdown caused by drought, rising energy prices and growth deceleration in the EU, its main trading partner. Morocco’s GDP is forecast to expand by more than 3.1% this year, up significantly from the 0.8% recorded in 2022. Still, the quality of growth and its sustainability in the future remains a matter of concern. Sub-Saharan Africa has witnessed an increased incidence of attempts to destabilize governments by unconstitutional or violent means in recent years. Coups, violent extremism, riots, and social unrest have become more commonplace. Ongoing conflicts, contested elections, and economic challenges have caused instability in countries like Chad and Burkina Faso. The upcoming presidential election scheduled for the DRC on December 20th 2023 will be a flashpoint for instability. While there are pockets of economic resilience, the region faces notable challenges related to political stability and the long-term sustainability of economic growth. Addressing these challenges will be crucial for fostering a more stable and prosperous future in Africa’s Francophone markets.