Egypt and Gaza: Cairo Talks, Sinai Fears

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s China and Philippines experts Amanda Hsiao and Georgi Engelbrecht to talk about friction between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. They discuss recent incidents involving Chinese coast guard vessels ramming and firing water cannons at Philippine supply boats near the contested Second Thomas Shoal and the risk of further escalation. They unpack the competing claims in the South China Sea and the strategic value of the maritime features for China and the Philippines. They talk about Manila’s policy towards China and its deepening defence ties to the U.S. under current President Ferdinand Marcos. They also discuss U.S. involvement in the South China Sea and Asia more broadly, China’s reaction to Washington reinforcing its Asian alliances and how to manage risks of incidents between the Chinese and U.S. militaries in the region.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our South China Sea page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell, Shewit Woldemichael, Rami Dajani and Rob Blecher about the latest from Sudan’s western Darfur region and from Gaza. Richard first talks to Alan and Shewit about the worsening violence in North Darfur. As the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces encircle the city of al-Fashar, the last Darfuri capital held by the Sudanese army, and both sides build up forces, they talk about the implications of an all-out battle for the city. They also discuss the legacy of the 2020 Juba peace agreement and why some Darfuri former rebels have now chosen to fight alongside the Sudanese army against the RSF. Richard then talks to Rami and Rob about Israel’s incursion this past week into Gaza’s southernmost city, Rafah. They discuss prospects for talks over a ceasefire-hostage release deal in Cairo, the views of both Hamas and the Israeli government on what such a deal should entail and Israeli politics around the Rafah offensive. They also talk about the difficulties of aid delivery and famine risks in both Sudan and Gaza. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our statement Sudan: A Year of War and our report Stopping Famine in Gaza. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s North Africa director Riccardo Fabiani, U.S. director Michael Hanna and Dareen Khalifa, Crisis Group’s senior dialogue adviser, to talk about the Gaza war’s impact on Egypt. They assess the latest round of ceasefire talks in Cairo and Egypt’s role as a mediator. They talk about Cairo’s fear, since 7 October, of Palestinians’ forced displacement from Gaza into Egypt’s Sinai region and the implications of an Israeli ground operation in Rafah. They look at how the war in Gaza has exacerbated Egypt’s economic woes, particularly given the Egyptian military’s outsized economic footprint and the country’s closed politics. They assess the significance of protests in solidarity with Palestinians and whether those might channel discontent at the government of President Abdul Fatah al-Sisi. They also explore Egypt’s position on Gaza’s future and interim governance arrangements. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Egypt and Israel-Palestine pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Venezuela expert Phil Gunson to discuss Venezuelan presidential elections, whether they offer a chance for the country to escape its protracted political crisis and Venezuela’s claim to Essequibo, an oil-rich region of neighbouring Guyana. They talk about Edmundo Gonzalez, an outsider whom the opposition appears to have rallied behind as its candidate to take on President Nicolas Maduro. They look back to the October 2023 Barbados agreement between the government and opposition that set out conditions for the vote, the opposition primary just afterwards, and the government’s efforts since to curb the opposition’s prospects. They explore how the country has been faring, as economic collapse triggers a humanitarian crisis and a wave of migration. They also talk about Venezuela’s dispute with neighbouring Guyana over Essequibo and what role other neighbours, Brazil and Colombia, could play in resolving the crisis. Finally, they assess whether a more competitive vote could offer a path to some form of transition or cohabitation between the government and opposition. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest commentary Seeking the Best from a Skewed Poll: Hard Choices for Venezuela. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the U.S. elections from Crisis Group's Ripple Effect podcast.In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve talk with Rachel Kleinfeld, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about the state of U.S. democracy and the risk of political violence as the U.S. heads toward the November elections. They break down how we should understand polarisation in U.S. society. They assess the potential risk factors that could contribute to political violence in the run-up and aftermath of the November elections and how they compare to the 2020 elections. They discuss how Washington is navigating the difficult task of promoting democracy abroad while facing its own challenges to its democratic institutions. They also talk about what politicians on both sides of the aisle can do to mitigate the risk of political violence in the near term.For more, check out Rachel’s piece Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says. You can read more of Crisis Group’s in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode on our United States program page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna, Lahib Higel and Robert Blecher to discuss the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel, risks of a wider regional war and what the escalation means for the war in Gaza. Richard first speaks with Ali, Mairav and Michael about Iran’s calculations in launching an attack on 13 April that saw hundreds of missiles and drones target Israeli military infrastructure, debates in Israel on how to respond and views within both countries’ societies. They also talk about U.S. efforts to stop regional tensions spiralling out of control. Richard then talks with Lahib and Rob about the latest developments in Gaza, particularly warnings of famine and prospects for a ceasefire. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest statement The Israel-Iran Crisis: A Chance to Step Back from the Brink, our report Stopping Famine in Gaza and our Middle East & North Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined again by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss Sudan’s war on the eve of its first anniversary. They talk about what’s happening on the battlefield, particularly recent gains by the Sudanese Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which had appeared to have the upper hand. They unpack the humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and aid access restricted by the warring parties as famine looms. They also discuss internal dynamics within Sudan’s Armed Forces, which increasingly rely on Islamist brigades and other armed groups, and the RSF. They examine outside powers’ roles, with Egypt supporting and Iran reportedly selling drones to the army, the United Arab Emirates widely thought to be arming the RSF, and how foreign involvement has evolved. They also discuss the difficulties of getting the warring parties’ leaders to talk even about a ceasefire, let alone a more sustainable end to the fighting, and the difficulties of returning Sudan to a civilian-led post-war transition.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest statement Sudan: A Year of War and our Sudan country page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Jerome Drevon, Ibraheem Bahiss and Olga Oliker about the attack on Crocus City Hall in a Moscow suburb claimed by the Islamic State (ISIS), how the group and its affiliates have evolved in recent years and the potential implications of the strike for Russian politics and the war in Ukraine. Richard first talks with Jerome and Ibraheem about what we know about the attack and the involvement of ISIS and the group’s affiliate in Afghanistan, Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP). They discuss how ISIS’s structure has evolved after losing its territory in Iraq and Syria and how much of a global threat it and its affiliates now pose. They also discuss the Taliban’s fight against IS-KP and its relations with outside powers worried about threats emanating from Afghanistan. Richard then talks with Olga about the attacks’ implications for Russia, Moscow’s attempts to link responsibility to Kyiv and what that might mean for the war in Ukraine.For more in-depth analysis of topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent Q&A ISIS Strikes Moscow, our 2016 report Exploiting Disorder: al-Qaeda and the Islamic State and our Jihad in Modern Conflict page. For more reading on the topic, check out The Exile: The Stunning Inside Story of Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda in Flight by Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Comfort Ero, Crisis Group’s President and CEO, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to talk about a string of recent conferences – in Germany, India and Türkiye – and obstacles to diplomacy aimed at securing peace deals among warring parties. First, they share takeaways from the Munich Security Conference, the Raisina Dialogue in India and Türkiye’s Antalya Diplomacy Forum, the differences in mood in each of the three meetings and what they tell us about global affairs today. Then, they discuss why so few recent conflicts have ended in negotiated settlements, what’s behind the seeming demise of comprehensive peace agreements and what a changing global environment for diplomacy means for efforts to end wars today.For more of Crisis Group’s in-depth analysis of conflicts around the world, check out our website. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group Haiti expert Diego Da Rin and deputy Latin America and Caribbean director Renata Segura to discuss the latest wave of gang violence engulfing Haiti. They look at the recent attempt by gangs, who already controlled perhaps 80 per cent of the capital Port-au-Prince, to overrun the airport, ports, government buildings and other critical infrastructure and their attacks on jails that freed thousands of inmates. They look at a new pact between previously warring gangs, seemingly motivated by their determination to deter foreign forces arriving, and the aspirations of gang leaders, notably Jimmy “Barbeque” Cherizier. They talk about the worsening humanitarian crisis, as water, food and fuel become harder to access. They discuss whether Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s resignation, a new presidential council and efforts by the Caribbean’s regional bloc CARICOM to mediate among Haiti’s politicians can turn a page on years of tumult. They also assess how a Kenya-led multinational force can help loosen gangs’ grip on the capital and what role diplomacy with gang leaders can play in reducing violence. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Haiti’s Gangs: Can a Foreign Mission Break Their Stranglehold? and our Haiti country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.