Have the Recent Conflicts Transformed the Middle East?

Open warfare has crossed the Middle East, and in its wake came an erosion of the norms of statesmanship and the power of international law to avert conflict. What are the implications for deterrence, diplomacy, and the future of UK, US, and regional strategy? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI experts Burcu Ozcelik and Michael Stephens to assess whether the Middle East is on the cusp of fundamental transformation or simply entering another volatile chapter. With the region rocked by Hamas' October 2023 attacks, a devastating war in Gaza, direct military strikes between Iran and Israel, and renewed US intervention, long-held assumptions about deterrence, regional power balances, and the limits of escalation have been upended. As Prime Minister Netanyahu meets President Trump in Washington, the episode explores how far the region has shifted and whether latest confrontations mark the end of 'grey-zone' conflicts and the emergence of a new order shaped by overt state-to-state warfare. Has Iran's deterrence crumbled? Can Israel claim strategic success? Are Gulf states and the US recalibrating their roles? And what does all this mean for the future of Gaza, the Arab-Israeli process of diplomatic normalisation, and UK foreign policy?

How is the UK's Labour government approaching European security, and how does this compare to the Conservatives? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by Professor Richard Whitman to examine how much has changed since Labour came to power. The UK is currently setting a path to navigate an uncertain world in a series of major reviews - the Security and Defence Review has just been published, a new National Security Strategy was release, and a Defence Industry Strategy is due later in the year. But amid the flurry of Whitehall documents, Labour is under pressure to deliver on its promises and, crucially, match the resources to fund a major increase in defence spending. Discussants assess the British government's readiness to find the financial resources that will be necessary to match the political commitments it is making. What should be the UK priorities as European security looks likely to undergo significant changes in the coming decades?

Is there a real near-term prospect of an end of Russia's war against Ukraine? RUSI experts explain four and a half months of the Trump Administration's approach to the war. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by Professor Samuel Greene, who teaches Russian politics at King's College and is a senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, and Andriy Zagorodnuyk, Chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies, Kyiv, who also previously served as Minister of Defence of Ukraine (2019-2020). They examine Trump's approach to the war, which initially seemed to reposition the United States as a broker between Moscow and Kyiv, and expressed itself ready to cede key demands to Russia with the objective of bringing the war to a conclusion Talks have dragged on, and the US President has seemed to grow frustrated with the complexity of the issues and the pace of the negotiations. While initially welcoming Trump's approach to the conflict, Russia has seemed unwilling to genuinely commit, opting instead to prolong the process. The team outlines what will come next and how United States policy towards Russia and Ukraine is likely to develop in response to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Can Peace Without Democracy Work? RUSI experts discuss the rise of illiberal peacebuilding in the Middle East and what it means for UK foreign policy. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security Dr. Burcu Ozcelik, Dr Claire Smith, Deputy Associate Dean for the Faculty of Social Sciences and the Faculty Director of Postgraduate Research, University of York, and Dr Rana Khalaf, Research Consultant and non-resident fellow at the University of St Andrews, to examine how authoritarian approaches to conflict management are reshaping the post-war landscape in the Middle East. The panel explores the rise of illiberal peace - where stability is pursued through top-down control, elite deals, and the exclusion of dissent. From Syria and Egypt to Libya and Iraq, the episode considers how this model is gaining traction among domestic regimes and international actors alike. The discussion also reflects on the risks of prioritising order over democratic values and asks whether Western interventions have contributed to similar outcomes. Looking ahead, the team assesses what this shift means for the UK's role in a region where peace increasingly comes without democracy.

GSB turns 100: RUSI experts look back on key security shifts and explore what’s next for the UK in a rapidly changing global landscape. In this special 100th episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by the RUSI International Security team to reflect on how global security has evolved since the podcast’s launch in 2021. Recorded live in London, the episode examines a world marked by rising state-based wars, increasing military tensions, and the fragmentation of the post–World War II international order. From the Russia–Ukraine war and instability in the Middle East to the growing rivalry between the US and China in the Indo-Pacific, the panel explores the key trends driving today’s global insecurity. The discussion also considers the rise of influential regional powers and the UK’s search for a post-Brexit role on the world stage. The team also offers insights on the security challenges of the next five years. Can the UK and its allies adapt to an increasingly contested and divided global landscape?

As Europe races to rearm, can it do so fast enough to deter looming threats? We explore this question with Shashank Joshi and Dr. Daniel Fiott. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor at The Economist, and Dr. Daniel Fiott, Head of the Defence and Statecraft Programme at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy of the Vrije Universiteit in Brussels, to explore whether Europe's defence renaissance can deliver on its promises. As Russia's war in Ukraine grinds on and questions grow around America's long-term role in European security, EU states are ramping up defence spending and launching new initiatives, including Readiness 2030 and efforts to create a single market for defence. Can these efforts overcome long-standing industrial fragmentation, political hurdles, and capability gaps in time? And what role will the UK and Ukraine play in this transformation? Can Europe rearm fast enough to secure its future? And what if it can't?

As China increases its ‘grey zone’ pressure, can Taiwan defend its sovereignty without sparking open conflict? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin speaks with Dr. Philip Shetler-Jones, RUSI Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security, Sze-Fung Lee an independent researcher specialising in Chinese hybrid warfare, and Dr. Jyun-yi Lee, Associate Research Fellow at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research to examine how Taiwan is confronting the growing coercive pressure from China, a pressure which falls just below the threshold of war. Drawing on a new RUSI report, they explore what grey zone tactics are, how Taiwan is responding, and what lessons can be shared between Europe and the Indo-Pacific. With rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, this episode asks: Can grey zone threats be deterred – and how close are we to open conflict? This episode is brought to you as part of our Indo-Pacific Security Programme, under which our research on the grey zone and lawfare receives sponsorship from the Taipei Relations Office in London.

How have the initial weeks of President Trump's second term of office impacted the transatlantic relationship, and will it survive his administration? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin speaks with Dr Liana Fix from the Council on Foreign Relations to explore the evolving transatlantic alliance. With growing security challenges, shifting US priorities, and Europe's push for strategic autonomy, they discuss key questions including: How is US policy toward European security changing? Can Europe defend itself without Washington? Is NATO's future at risk? The speakers also examine the impact of nationalism, the war in Ukraine, and great power competition.

How is the global security landscape evolving, and what role can think tanks play in shaping the debate? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin sits down with Rachel Ellehuus, RUSI's new Director-General, to explore the major security and defence challenges facing Europe, the transatlantic alliance and the wider international order, drawing on her extensive experience in NATO, the US Department of Defense, and the UK Ministry of Defence. They also discuss RUSI's role as the world's oldest security and defence think tank, its strategic direction ahead of its bicentenary, and how it can contribute to navigating an increasingly complex global environment. What are the biggest challenges for think tanks today, and how can institutions like RUSI help shape the future of security policy?

Is Japan’s evolving national security profile altering its role in global security? Prof. Chris Hughes & Hirohito Ogi discuss this strategic shift.                                                                                                Japan is undergoing a major transformation in its defence policy, expanding its industrial base and forging new international partnerships. What are the strategic drivers behind this shift, and how will these impact regional and global security? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Associate Fellow Prof. Chris Hughes and Hirohito Ogi, Senior Associate Fellow at the Asia Pacific Initiative, to analyse Japan’s evolving defence posture. They discuss  policy changes to enable arms exports, the significance of initiatives like the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), and Japan’s role in strengthening defence cooperation with the UK and other allies. What challenges remain, and how far can Japan go in reshaping its position as a global security actor?