Episode 115: How We Try To Value & Weight Early Season Looks

Ben and Carlos follow up on last episode’s conversation on the ABS system and how players and coaches are taking it so far. The two then talk about the spring breakout rosters being released before pivoting into Ben’s recent trip to the Dominican Republic to scout 'em up. After that, the two talk about a handful of prospects who are making noise in spring training, including the Yankees duo of George Lombard Jr. and Spencer Jones, plus our first pro look at flamethrowing righthander Chase Burns.Finally the two talk about the wide open nature of the top of the 2025 draft class, talk through a few of their current favorites for the first overall pick (plus a few dark horse options) and then take listener questions. —Time Stamps(0:00) ABS follow up(12:00) Spring breakout series (15:00) Ben’s trip to the DR(37:00) George Lombard Jr.(44:00) A Spencer Jones swing change(51:30) Chase Burns(1:01:00) The 1-1 race in the draft(1:25:00) Ben’s dark horse pick(1:33:00) Listener questionsDo you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: [email protected]  Ben's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazoBaseball America WebsiteSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/future-projection-a-baseball-america-podcast/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos talk about the opening weekend of college baseball and get into a discussion of what they are looking for in these early season looks? What’s impactful and valuable in terms of evaluating a player’s overall profile and projecting them for the future? Why is it easier to have quicker takeaway from pitchers? What are the useful leading indicators to be aware of? And why are we so interested in body composition and mechanics? All that plus an early preview of a loaded 2026 high school player class and some fun discussing gripes and critiques of baseball broadcasts.—Time Stamps:(0:00) Hot EV college baseball environment(6:10) What do you take away from opening weekend?(12:00) Why you can pick up on pitcher changes quicker(13:00) Tennessee LHP Liam Doyle’s jump in stuff(16:00) What is early season signal vs. noise?(21:00) Why do hitters take longer to figure out?(26:00) Why we don’t care about early results(31:30) What we’re watching for with defense(40:00) Seeing players to ask better questions(57:30) MLB spring training ABS system thoughts(1:02:00) Broadcast gripes & critiques(1:18:00) Previewing the loaded 2026 prep classDo you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: [email protected]  Ben's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazoBaseball America WebsiteSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/future-projection-a-baseball-america-podcast/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos are joined by Baseball America national college writer Jacob Rudner for our third annual amateur player draft. The game is simple: among 2025 eligible players each writer attempts to put together the best roster of players including one catcher, two corner infielders, two middle infielders, three outfielders, four pitchers and one utility spot. The three draft their teams and talk about the players, the strategy, the strengths and weaknesses of the class and more to celebrate the opening day of college baseball. —Time Stamps:(0:00) Welcoming Jacob and overview of the draft rules(4:30) Draft starts(12:40) Ben takes a famous prepster(20:00) A well-rounded college outfielder(21:00) The best pure hitter in the class?(27:30) Catchers starting to fly off the board(31:10) Ben finally takes a pitcher(36:40) A tweener SEC infielder(42:40) Back-to-back college mashers(48:20) Ben tackles the prep pitching demographic(58:00) Jacob grabs a big power prep bat(1:05:20) Questions about the second and third tier arms(1:12:30) Full team rundowns & draft thoughtsDo you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: [email protected]  Ben's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazoJacob's Twitter: @JacobRudnerBaseball America WebsiteSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/future-projection-a-baseball-america-podcast/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

With Baseball America’s 2025 prospect lists updated ahead of the season, Ben and Carlos pick breakout players they're excited about for each of the 15 American League teams.—Time Stamps:(0:00) Farm system talent rankings(11:00) Astros (16:45) Mariners(22:25) Rangers(27:11) Athletics(31:40) Angels (36:45) Guardians(41:00) Tigers(45:30) Royals(50:45) Twins(54:45) White Sox(1:00:00) Yankees(1:06:03) Orioles(1:10:10) Red Sox(1:15:00) Rays (1:21:30) Blue JaysDo you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: [email protected]  Ben's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazoBaseball America WebsiteSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/future-projection-a-baseball-america-podcast/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

With Baseball America’s 2025 prospect lists updated ahead of the season, Ben and Carlos pick breakout players they're excited about for each of the 15 National League teams.—Time Stamps:(5:00) Dodgers (9:45) Padres (13:45) Diamondbacks (17:30) Giants (22:12) Rockies (27:15) Brewers (32:15) Cubs (33:15) Cardinals (41:00) Reds (45:20) Pirates (49:50) Phillies (54:07) Braves(58:20) Mets (1:03:30) Nationals (1:06:45) Marlins Do you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: [email protected]  Ben's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazoBaseball America WebsiteSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/future-projection-a-baseball-america-podcast/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos work through the updated 2025 Top 100 Prospects List and talk through players in each bucket of the list. Who are they “buying and selling” in each of the tiers of prospects? After working through the list the two talk about a few players who just missed but could easily be on and then take a few listener questions including: the most polarizing players, thoughts on PPI eligibility and the best places in the country to live for baseball watching.—Time Stamps(1:30) Kristian Campbell(10:50) Dylan Crews (13:00) Concerns for Andrew Painter(18:00) Thoughts on the talent of the top 20(20:00) Buys: Jesus Made, Marcelo Mayer, Leo De Vries(23:11) Sells: Carson Williams, Kumar Rocker(26:15) Buys: Travis Bazzana, Sebastian Walcott(30:30) Sells: Coby Mayo, Chase Burns(32:00) Buys: Jaison Chourio, Ethan Salas(37:30) Sell: Colson Montgomery(40:30) Buys: Chase DeLauter, Charlie Condon(43:20) Sells: Cooper Pratt, Jacob Misiorowski(49:30) Buys: Zyhir Hope, Drake Baldwin(52:40) Sells: Bryce Rainer, Konnor Griffin(55:30) Buys: Brayden Taylor, Moises Ballesteros(59:20) Sells: Moises Ballesteros, Thayron Liranzo(1:03:40) Buys: Franklin Arias, Blake Mitchell(1:06:45) Sells: Blake Mitchell, Tre’ Morgan(1:12:15) Back of the list conversation(1:19:00) Polarizing prospects(1:23:30) Thoughts on Top 100s influencing PPI eligibility (1:25:30) Best places to live for baseballDo you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: [email protected]  Ben's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazoBaseball America WebsiteSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/future-projection-a-baseball-america-podcast/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos hop on the show to break down the chaos of the 2025 international signing day. While Roki Sasaki hasn’t signed (as of this podcast recording at least) with a team yet, the ripple effects of his status in the market has certainly created waves. Ben gives listeners a detailed breakdown of what’s happened and what might happen in the future, he breaks down a signing class he’s particularly excited about and also answers a few listener emails on the IFA market.—Time Stamps(0:15) Signing day update(3:40) Ben’s thought on the Roki Sasaki situation(8:00) The role of pitching development for Roki(15:00) How big is Roki’s bonus going to be? (18:30) Dodgers losing key names from their class(20:30) Will the Padres and Blue Jays lose players?(25:00) Will team flipping become more common in the future?(30:00) What happened with Giants signee Josuar Gonzalez?(34:30) More players signing out of high school from Japan?(43:00) An exciting class of Red Sox international signingsDo you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: [email protected]  Ben's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazoBaseball America WebsiteSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/future-projection-a-baseball-america-podcast/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos hop back on the show for the first time in 2025 to talk about our recently released scouting survey, Carlos’s 2020 redraft and Ben’s work prepping for international signing day. Up first, the two talk through some of the results from our offseason scouting survey, which was an attempt to gauge the pulse of the scouting industry in the midst of what many scouts are calling a brutal offseason for the field.After that, the conversation flips to the 2020 redraft that Carlos wrote over the holidays. The two talk about why the covid draft was so challenging and whether there are lessons to be learned from it.  The show closes with Ben’s assessment of the 2025 international signing period that’s about to open on Jan. 15. He gives us his latest on what’s happening with Roki Sasaki and explores a few potential scenarios that could unfold with other clubs after he signs.—Time Stamps(2:30) Scouting survey(10:00) The importance of multiple looks and history(15:00) The value of hitting big(20:00) Bucking the veteran scout stereotype(27:00) The value of communication(33:00) Challenges of quantifying data and weighting it(47:00) 2020 Redraft(57:00) Players can change rapidly(1:05:00) Roki Sasaki drama(1:16:20) Ben’s Roki signing scenarioDo you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: [email protected]  Ben's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazoBaseball America WebsiteSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/future-projection-a-baseball-america-podcast/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos wrap up their final series of organization overviews following the 2024 season with the American League West.The two open the show with a conversation about the process behind Baseball America’s annual Prospect Handbook—which you can purchase here as a last-minute Christmas gift for yourself or a loved one!—and then get into the organization rundowns.The two fawn over Seattle’s crop of young, up-the-middle hitting talent in one of the deepest and strongest systems they’ve covered yet, then get into an interesting discussion about who’s No. 2 in the system: the Rangers or the A’s? After some prospect gushing about Nick Kurtz, Kumar Rocker and Sebastian Walcott, things take a turn for the worse in regards to the Angels and Astros, who seem to be battling it out for the dubious honor of No. 30 org ranking.—Time Stamps(0:30) Prospect Handbook process(7:00) AL West overview(8:30) Mariners(33:00) A’s(47:00) Rangers(1:08:00) Angels(1:18:00) AstrosDo you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: [email protected]  Ben's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazoBaseball America WebsiteSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/future-projection-a-baseball-america-podcast/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Ben and Carlos talk about the Garrett Crochet trade and break down AL Central farm systems on today’s episode. Ben lays out his case for why the Red Sox nailed this move while acknowledging a strong return going in the other direction for the White Sox. That turns into a larger conversation about the strength of the White Sox farm system, and the two generally have positive things to say about the American League Central farms as a whole—with one notable exception. At the end of the show the two take listener questions including: How much does Cam Cannarella’s shoulder impact his draft stock? What do we think about the draft lottery hurting the worst teams? What do we think about the Willy Adames signing and the draft capital given up to do it? Will Roki Sasaki have a deal done before January 15? —Time Stamps(4:00) Garret Crochet trade(10:00) White Sox return(19:00) AL Central teams(20:30) White Sox(34:30) Guardians(52:00) Tigers(1:12:00) Twins(1:30:10) Royals(1:39:00) Listener QuestionsDo you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: [email protected]  Ben's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazoBaseball America WebsiteSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/future-projection-a-baseball-america-podcast/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy