Israel's Shadow War

Ali Khamenei, Iran’s longtime ruler, saw the possibility of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia as a threat to his hegemonic ambitions. On Oct. 7, Hamas, one of Tehran’s proxies, invaded Israel and committed multiple acts of barbarism. That sparked a war and froze prospects for a new Saudi-Israeli relationship.  However, The Wall Street Journal reports that Washington is pushing for a “long-shot diplomatic deal” – one in which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would “accept a new commitment to Palestinian statehood” in exchange for diplomatic recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia. What else would have to be in such a deal? Can it happen while the war in Gaza is ongoing? Do the Saudis secretly want Israel to enter Rafah and finish off Hamas? To discuss the current state of diplomatic and kinetic play, host Cliff May is joined by Mark Dubowitz, FDD's Chief Executive; and Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University and a leading expert on Saudi Arabia.

Last weekend, Iran’s rulers launched a massive missile and drone assault on Israel.Though the attack was thwarted, it should be obvious that the Islamic Republic is willing to pursue its goal of “Death to Israel!” — not just by utilizing Arab proxies and pawns, but now also directly from within its own territory. We must assume that Iran’s rulers are also now adjusting their strategies for the jihad they are waging and the genocide they vow to carry out.A reminder: If Iran’s rulers acquire nuclear weapons and missiles capable of delivering them to targets anywhere in the world that would be a game-changer. Israel’s leaders must now think harder than ever about how to fight this long war.  To explore such questions, host Cliff May is joined by his FDD colleagues Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD Senior Fellow; Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD's Center on Military and Political Power; and retired Admiral Mark Montgomery, Senior Director of FDD's Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation.Editor's note: We are releasing this episode ahead of schedule. We recorded it late afternoon (ET) on Thursday, April 18. Hours later the same evening, explosions have been reported in Isfahan, Iran, and Iranian airspace has been closed. Although Israel has yet to claim any involvement in or responsibility for these explosions, we are releasing this episode early due to the discussion's timeliness and relevance to these unfolding events.

Six months after Iranian-backed terrorists perpetrated the largest slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust, Israel’s ground war against Hamas in Gaza, its conflict with Lebanon-based Hezbollah in Israel’s north, and Tehran’s multi-front shadow war against the Jewish state continue.For a status update, host Cliff May is joined by his FDD colleagues Bradley Bowman, senior director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power, and Brigadier General (Res.) Jacob Nagel, a visiting fellow at FDD and former Israeli national security advisor under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.They discuss Israel’s withdrawal of most troops from Gaza; the necessity of closing the tunnels from Egypt through which Hamas has received huge quantities of arms and ammunition; the difficulties of providing aid to Gazans while Hamas holds hostages and kills Israelis whenever possible; where Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif are likely hiding; and the strategic imperative of defeating the remaining Hamas battalions in Rafah.They also discuss President Biden’s wavering support for Israel; Israel’s April 1 assassination of an IRGC-QF commander in Damascus; and Tehran’s threat to take revenge.

The Israeli airstrike next to Iran’s embassy in Damascus on April 1 targeted several high-ranking members of Iran’s Quds Force — an elite division of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, which is designated by the U.S. as a terrorist organization. Among those killed: top IRGC-QF commander in Syria and Lebanon, Mohammad Reza Zahedi. The regime in Tehran has vowed revenge, and Israel is on high-alert for escalation by Iran’s proxies on seven possible fronts.To discuss the strategic thinking behind Israel’s strike and possible Iranian responses, host Cliff May is joined by FDD experts Behnam Ben Taleblu and Hussain Abdul Hussain. They explain why diplomatic immunity was not in play in Damascus, and revisit Iran’s history of not respecting such diplomatic niceties and protocols; analyze reactions from the Biden administration and “international community” — including at the United Nations where the Russian Federation protects and defends Tehran, where Security Council resolutions beneficial to Israel are not enforced, and where“international law” seems to only apply to Israel and the U.S.

President Reagan knew a detent with the Soviet Union wouldn’t win the Cold War. If we take off the gloves and force Soviet communism to compete with American democracy, he thought, the U.S. will prevail. In a phrase: “We win, they lose.” He was right. The U.S. won. The Soviet Union collapsed. But in the decades since as America’s role in the world diminished and the rules-based order decayed, Russia relapsed. And as he puts back the pieces of a shattered Soviet Union one illegal land-grab at a time, Putin is hardly the only despot hellbent on resurrecting an imperial renaissance in the shadows of American retrenchment.Also jonesing for a rise from the ash heap of history are the Islamist regime in Tehran and Chinese Communist Party in Beijing. Together with Moscow, they’ve formed a neo-imperialist axis to take on the West in a New Cold War. With the U.S. facing multiple nuclear-powered adversaries in a conflict for the first time ever, the second Cold War is shaping up to be far more dangerous than the first. With such high stakes, CWII’s outcome will no doubt be a decisive chapter in modern history. The task of navigating the free world through this crisis falls on one desk (you know the one). And while he who will sit behind it remains uncertain, the possibilities can be narrowed down to two. Both have sat there before. So far, only one has a tailored roadmap for winning Cold War II, and it’s based entirely on Reagan’s playbook. The experts behind the strategy (AKA their new book: We Win, They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy and the New Cold War) are Matthew Kroenig and Dan Negrea. They join host Cliff May who has some questions for them.

After World War II, the United States attempted to construct something new: a liberal, American-led, rules-based international order that would promote human rights, Enlightenment values, and democracy.Today, the dictatorial rulers of China, Russia, and Iran are attempting to establish something different: a world order that is radically illiberal with rules made in Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran, and hostility regarding human rights, Enlightenment values, and democracy.This is one of the topics on the mind of former National Security Advisor and U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton.He joins host Cliff May for an in-depth discussion.

In Gaza, Israelis are fighting a ground war – and an underground war – against Hamas, a proxy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Israelis also are responding to missile attacks from Hezbollah, Tehran’s Lebanon-based foreign legion. These are serious conflicts. But they are not separate conflicts. And they could be something else – something worse.Mark Dubowitz, FDD’s chief executive, worries that they could be what he calls “weapons of mass distraction” — a way to divert the attention of Israel’s military, intelligence, and political establishments, along with those of the Biden administration, from a more threatening development: the advance of Tehran’s nuclear weapons program.Mark and Eyal Hulata, former Israeli National Security Advisor and now the first foreign visiting fellow at FDD, join host Cliff May to discuss what Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wants to achieve while he’s alive and the legacy he wants to leave behind.

Next month marks 30 years since the onset of the world’s worst mass slaughter since the Holocaust: the Rwandan genocide.Among the forces that ushered in an end to the conflict was a military officer who would ultimately become Rwanda’s president: Paul Kagame.FDD’s RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery recently met with President Kagame and other senior officials in Kigali.In addition to a debrief on his trip, Adm. Montgomery joins host Cliff May to discuss Russian and Chinese neo-imperialism in Africa; the environmental harm being caused by the exploitative extraction of cobalt and other minerals necessary for an “energy transition”; the wars in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Libya, what BRICS is building; the spread of Islamism and jihadist violence in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and other African countries.

Joining Cliff for this episode is Boston Globe columnist Jeff Jacoby, whose first column appeared 30 years ago this week. Jeff’s career as a journalist has included interviews with Elie Wiesel and Mikhail Gorbachev, and on-the-ground reporting from such exotic locales as Cuba, the Korean DMZ, and Gaza.Cliff asks Jeff how he came to his world view; what he saw in Gaza during visits from the 1970s to early 2000s; why a “Hitlerian” variant of antisemitism has reemerged; and what lessons might be learned from Israel’s experiments and experiences.

Given the mandate of the United Nations, you might think a genocide perpetrated by a terrorist organization against a democracy in the Middle East would be an opportunity for the UN to exercise its moral authority — perhaps even an obligation, considering the U.S. tax dollars that bankroll it.But you’d be wrong.The UN doesn’t recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization. Moreover, when the UN uses the word “genocide,” it’s not talking about the aims of Hamas per its charter nor what Hamas did on October 7 and pledges to do again. When the UN uses the word “genocide,” they are referring to Israeli self-defense.Why is the UN not standing up for the principles upon which it was founded? Is reform even possible at this point?Host Cliff May is joined by FDD experts Bonnie Glick and Richard Goldberg to discuss.Bonnie GlickBonnie Glick is an adjunct senior fellow at FDD. She served as the deputy administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) from January 2019 to November 2020. She was nominated for the post by President Trump and confirmed by the U.S. Senate by unanimous consent. Her prior experience also includes 12 years as a U.S. foreign service officer in the Department of State with overseas tours in Ethiopia and Nicaragua and domestic tours at the State Department, National Security Council, and U.S. Mission to the United Nations. Read Bonnie's full bio here.Richard GoldbergRichard Goldberg is a senior advisor at FDD. From 2019-2020, he served as the Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction for the White House National Security Council. He previously served as chief of staff for Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner and deputy chief of staff and senior foreign policy adviser to former U.S. Senator Mark Kirk of Illinois in both the U.S. House and Senate. Read Rich's full bio here.