Evening Market Recap - Monday, 4-Nov

US equities were mostly lower and mixed in Monday trading, though stocks finished off worst levels. A very quiet session today as the market waits for some key catalysts this week, notably tomorrow’s US election, a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed, China’s NPC meeting, and 103 more S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. In macro news, factory orders declined largely in line with expectations, down for the fourth time the in last five months in September.

Major US equity indices were down for the week. Earnings reports dominated the calendar, with some mixed takeaways from the five Mag-7 names on the schedule. The week's big economic report was Friday's nonfarm payrolls release for October, showing only 12K in job gains for the month (and revising down August and September by a combined 112K jobs).

US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels. Today's risk-off atmosphere was largely a function of disappointing Mag 7 earnings, though there was nothing in the results or guidance to really shift the favorable narrative surrounding the AI secular growth theme. On the economic front, initial jobless claims are down again, down 12K week over week to 216K versus consensus 227K.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, selling off after midday and ending near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 22bps, 33bps, and 56bps respectively. Earnings were a major focus today, with more than half of the S&P 500 constituents now having reported; Alphabet, AMD, Caterpillar among notable reporters. Big beat for October ADP private payrolls, printing at 233K vs 108K consensus. Q3 GDP grew at a 2.8% SAAR against forecasts for 2.6%. September pending home sales came in much stronger than expected, rising 7.4% m/m.

US equities finished mixed in Tuesday trading, a bit off best levels. Earnings takeaways were mixed to weaker with DHI-US results/guidance highlighting the lagged effects of the Fed's pivot. Today's stronger consumer confidence supportive of the broader soft-/no-landing traction. October consumer confidence well ahead of estimates, biggest jump since Mar-21. 

US equities were higher in a fairly quiet, fairly rangebound Monday trading. The recent backup in yields remains the biggest focus. In macro news, October’s Dallas Fed Index beat with its best reading since April 2022.

US equities were mostly lower this week. The biggest focus was on another backup in yields, extending this month's sizable jump with the 2Y back above 4%, and 10Y back to July levels (before the Fed cut by 50bp in August). In a busy week of Fedspeak before next week's blackout period ahead of the November FOMC meeting, Fed officials continued to argue that they see further rate cuts ahead, but there are some questions around the pace.

US equities were mostly higher in Thursday trading as the S&P posted its first gain in four sessions. Earnings dominated the headlines with takeaways mixed and increased talk about a higher bar following the recent run. On today's economic calendar, initial claims came in well below consensus after some recent weather-related noise.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, though ended off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 96bps, 92bps, and 160bps respectively. Backup in yields biggest near-term headwind, reflecting soft/no-landing optimism but also rising re-inflationary fears, with 10Y breakevens at their highest level since June. Fed's latest Beige Book noted economic activity little changed since September. Existing home sales for September posted a surprise decline, coming in below expectations at the slowest pace in 14 years.

US equities were mixed in Tuesday trading as stocks ended little changed though off worst levels. Rate stabilization has provided some cushion from risk off tone that spilled over to this morning. Earnings today a mixed bag with some scrutiny on select cyclical and rate-sensitive names.