Episode 195: Expected Goals

Our GAR, xGAR, and RAPM models are now updated for the '26-27 season, and our collective brain has expanded (or just reverted to the normal size). We spent the first half of the episode analyzing the evolution of defenseman archetypes over eras. Later we discussed promising young players in the league. 

We're back after two weeks to talk about the most important thing that's going on right now: our new Expected Goals model. We spent, at the very least, the first half doing this while also discussing league news, early over-performers, and the oddity of WI campus bars. 

Week 3 of the '26-27 NHL season is in the books! We spent the first half discussing the goalie mindset, documentaries, football, and falling attendance numbers. Later we talked about national anthems, shots from behind the net, and early GAR predictions. 

It's still way too early to say anything about whether your favorite team is good or bad. That said, we still tried (sort of). In the first half we discussed the Flyers, coaching media tactics, and fantasy letdowns. Later, we talked bad teams, early standouts, and the X-Files.

The first week of the '26-27 NHL season is in the books, and as is tradition it's too early to say anything conclusive. Instead, we chatted about Vince Dunn, broadcasts, concession food, David Lynch, and early vibes. In the second half we talked exclusively about xG.

Our team projections are now updated for the '26-27 NHL season, and our season preview article is up on the site! We spent the entire episode discussing the model, the league environment, each division, and every team (I think). If you want hockey discussion, no recurring episode ever has more! 

The season starts in six days. We're a little too early for our annual season preview episode, so we thought we'd wrap up the summer properly before we get to that. We discussed recent contracts, fantasy, initial contract analysis, extensions, bowling, and 1.5x listening. 

The theme of this episode is goalies. Things got really messy. I suppose that makes *a lot* of sense. Between all of that we talked about the perfect replacement level team, unexplained phenomenons, plants, fasting, and Dennis Quaid. 

It's time for us to start talking about hockey again (even if we spent 15 minutes talking about the MN State Fair). We spent the first half discussing our recently released fantasy projections and then moved on to Cale Makar and team construction questions. 

The Twins are back from the only vacation they take every year, and nothing is going on. It's all vibes. We spent the first half discussing pseudoscientific managerial assessment tools and prospect evaluation questions. Later, we pondered the Leo Carlsson offersheet and native thistles.