E11. Finding Hidden Investment Signals in Negative Data Points

Q3 reporting left investors with a familiar challenge: hundreds of stocks traded lower after earnings, and only a few are worth deeper attention. Ben Silverman explains how he narrows that universe by looking at post-earnings insider behavior, focusing on where management actions diverge from prior patterns. He walks through cases such as Norwegian Cruise Line’s first executive purchase since 2016, the Sonos CEO buying again after a 45 percent rally, and Chubb’s 1.2 billion dollar buyback executed as management called shares "well below intrinsic value."Then Christine Short, Director of Research, TMX Datalinx, examines what companies signaled before they reported through changes in their confirmed earnings dates, a form of corporate "body language." She highlights real Q3 moves including Verizon delaying its date by eight days (shares down about 3 percent after earnings) and Regeneron moving up by two days (shares up about 12 percent after results), illustrating how timing decisions can hint at the tone of upcoming announcements.A concise look at how pre- and post-earnings behavior can shape positioning into year-end.Verity was acquired by TMX Group in October 2025.

The old rule — "selling bad, buying good" — misses a lot today. Insider behavior now includes plan-driven sales, comp mechanics, shifting blackout policies, and more. For example, one insider signal isn't a buy or a sell at all, but a pause in selling.Key questions that emerge:·       How do you find positive signals at companies where insiders never buy stock?·       What does it mean when executives who sell millions regularly suddenly stop?In this episode, Ben Silverman and Senior Analyst Max Magee examine the "cessation selling" phenomenon through 3 key examples:·       Microsoft: First pause in insider selling since 2004 — stock up 40% since the signal.·       Expedia: Five-year selling streak ends at $150/share — stock rebounds to $225.·       Tableau Software: Co-founders cancel $35-50 million sale plans — company acquired months later at premium.Edited, mixed, and scored by Calvin Marty.

Executive pay doesn’t always make headlines, yet it can offer a surprisingly clear view of a company’s next move. Host Ben Silverman sits down with Senior Analyst Amy Pessetto to show how changes in long-term incentives, performance metrics, and option grants may reveal where management is really focused. Sometimes before those priorities turn up on an earnings call.Tickers Discussed: ADT, FSLR, SAMIn this episode, Ben and Amy discuss:Options on the Rise: Why some companies are swapping portions of time-based RSUs for stock options, and what that shift suggests about risk appetite in 2025.First Solar’s Comp Mix: A higher RSU weight and a shorter vesting schedule and what the revised package might mean for solar-sector bulls and bears.New CEO, New Metrics: How Boston Beer rewired its incentive plan around revenue growth after handing the reins to a new chief executive.Reading the Fine Print: Practical tips for spotting sandbagging, de-risking, or strategic pivots hidden inside proxy disclosures.From Data to Decisions: A step-by-step way to fold incentive-comp insights into your research process.Edited, mixed, and scored by Calvin Marty.

Inflation, tariffs, recession fears, and major policy shifts. Today’s market is clouded with uncertainty. But when good information is hard to come by, insider moves can provide clarity. Join Ben Silverman and Verity Senior Analyst Max Magee as they uncover how insider buying, selling, corporate buybacks, and executive compensation can help guide investors through volatile times.Tickers discussed: ORCL, JBHT, MPC, BAHIn this episode, Ben and Max explore:Oracle’s unexpected insider purchase amid speculation of a TikTok deal and historical ties to government contracts.JB Hunt’s logistics executive placing a substantial $10 million bet despite tariff uncertainties.Marathon Petroleum’s insider action signaling optimism amid energy sector turbulence.Defense contractors like Booz Allen strategically responding to market headlines through insider buying.Edited, mixed, and scored by Calvin Marty.

The markets rallied after the 2024 election. CEOs made optimistic public statements. But behind the scenes, corporate insiders were selling at record rates. Why sell when stocks are soaring? What did these insiders see that others missed? And why such aggressive selling from companies poised to benefit from new policies? Join us for a close look at one of the market's most reliable signals: what insiders do with their own money.Ben breaks down four telling examples:Griffin Corp's CEO started with 80,000 shares at $70. Then he unloaded 300,000 more as the stock topped $78.GM's Cruise president waited until shares hit $55 - a three-year high - then sold.CoreCivic saw eleven insiders sell. Even a longtime buyer switched to selling.Wolverine Worldwide's HR chief broke her trading pattern just as policy impacts loomed.Edited, mixed, and scored by Calvin Marty.

How Investors Outsmart Corporate Buybacks  Buybacks are bigger than ever. How can investors outsmart the pitfalls of corporate buybacks and find edge?   In this episode of Differentiated, host Ben Silverman dives deep into the nuances of corporate share buybacks with guest Michael Seigne from Candor Partners — whose insights have been featured in the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and more. Listen for essential insights into the execution of buybacks and the potential pitfalls that can arise, particularly around hidden costs, inefficiencies, and misaligned incentives. Through real-world examples, like those at General Motors, Microsoft, Apple, and more, discover the importance of smart, nuanced buyback strategies.  Tickers Discussed: GM, F, MSFT, AAPL, ASML, RTXEdited, mixed, and scored by Calvin Marty.

Discover insiders to watch this year. Learn the data points and analyses that flagged their activities as worthy of investor attention: wild sentiment reversal, high-IQ cluster buying, & more. Plus, Ben answers a smart question from a listener: Do insiders only buy when they think the stock is undervalued, or do they sometimes buy to try to get the stock moving? Tickers discussed: THR, SWKS, PLAY, APPN, LEVIEdited, mixed, and scored by Calvin Marty.

New SEC disclosures are giving investors edge. This episode, Ben shares how sweeping changes to rule 10b5-1 have played out in the last year, giving investors more data, context, and insights related to corporate insider activity. Learn material nuances of the rule change, what it means, and hear three real-world examples, including opportunistic activity from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jaime Dimon, Rivian (RIVN) Founder RJ Scaringe, and Shockwave Medical (SWAV) CEO Doug Godshall.Edited, mixed, and scored by Calvin Marty.

Investors who can source conflict, mixed messages, or negative data points in their research process are at an advantage. In this episode, Ben shares a few hidden signals — revealed in insider selling activity, buyback programs, and earnings call sentiment — that can fuel short ideas. Examples include Snowflake (SNOW), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), PayPal (PYPL), and Skechers (SKX). Finally, Ben opens the mailbag and shares a recent question he got from a client regarding the opportunistic timing of one executive’s resignation announcement.Edited, mixed, and scored by Calvin Marty.

How should investors interpret insider selling? There are a lot of data points: timing, size, past behavior, company culture, 10b5-1 context, and more. What’s signal? What’s noise?In this episode, Ben shares 6 truths about insider selling. He weaves in illustrative examples of recent insider selling from Meta Platforms (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg, PlanetLabs (PL) CEO Ashley Johnson, Netflix (NFLX) CEO Spencer Newman, Build-a-Bear Workshop (BBW) CEO Sharon John, Former General Electric (GE) CEO Jeffrey Immelt, and more.Plus, Ben answers a great question he got recently from a VerityData hedge fund client: “If an insider targets a specific price, is that always bad?“Edited, mixed, and scored by Calvin Marty.