TWIG #374 GDC 2025: The Honest Debrief

The industry isn’t slowing down. This week, we break down the biggest shifts across games.Topics Covered:● Disney and Epic: Why the speculation is picking up and what a bigger Disney move into games could look like● Unity’s latest shift: A strong earnings beat, the shutdown of Ironsource, and the sale of Supersonic● Studio closures and shutdowns: What the latest cuts across VR, live service, and Embracer say about the market● The Merge 2 rise: Why the category keeps growing and the debate over what’s really driving the revenue● Cookie Run’s next step: Franchise expansion and the challenge of turning one hit into something bigger● New soft-launch shooters: Ex-Supercell teams, familiar patterns, and questions about where action games fit on mobilePlus ++We also get into Tim Sweeney’s role in Epic’s future, Unity versus AppLovin in ad tech, card systems, soft-launch design, and Kress’s latest reality check on mobile.CHAPTERS: 01:14 Mario Movie Backlash03:45 Leroy Jenkins Capital06:52 Housekeeping And Corrections09:10 Disney Buying Epic Rumor12:12 Tim Sweeney Control Fight14:55 Entertainment Gaming Graveyard17:46 Unity Dumps IronSource23:22 Vector Versus AppLovin Scale26:35 Shutdowns And VR Reality Check30:46 Matthew Ball Metaverse Spat33:38 Embracer Wildland Canceled36:50 Merge Two Boom Explained42:29 Cards Drive Revenue Debate50:48 Cookie Run Franchise Bet56:50 Soft Launch Shooter Doubts01:00:22 Field Day Hands On Review01:06:06 Kress's Mobile Reality Rant01:10:16 Episode Wrap Up

The games industry is hitting another inflection point, and the "old rules" of growth are being rewritten. This week, we’re unpacking:● Google’s "Level Up" Program: Is it actually a win for devs, or just more platform gatekeeping? We look at Sidekick and the new UA economics.● The Epic Pivot: Layoffs, the UEFN "platform" gamble, and what the future of Fortnite actually looks like.● Roblox’s New Play: Their latest brand integration strategy is a massive shift for creator monetization.● The Newzoo Reality Check: PC is back, player behavior is shifting, and "mid-priced premium" is the new sweet spot.Plus ++  We dive deep into UA multiplier theory, why CPIs are lying to you, and where real growth is actually hiding in 2026.CHAPTERS:00:26 Show Intro and Agenda01:36 Quick Shills and Updates04:05 Google Level Up Explained07:27 Messaging Mess and Sidekick AI09:06 UA Multiplier and CPI Debate11:55 Sidekick Skepticism Extortion14:39 Epic Layoffs Breakdown19:05 Why Epic Lost Focus26:14 Star Wars UEFN Toolkit33:36 Newzoo Report Key Trends37:31 Report Critique And TAM Reality42:29 Premium Mid Price Debate47:39 Roblox Brand Deal Revenue Cut51:14 Creator Backlash And Platform Control56:25 Why The Brand Tax Might Help01:01:04 Final Debate And Wrap Up

The mobile ecosystem is experiencing some massive shifts this month. We dive into the real implications of Unity Vector's new D28 campaign, break down what Google’s recent fee cut actually means for your studio's growth trajectory, and unpack the wild news of AppLovin stepping out of the ad-network shadows to build its very own social network. Topics Covered:● Unity Vector's D28 campaign and its implications● Google's fee cut impact on growth● AppLovin's plans to build a social networkMichail Katkoff | Josh Chandley | John Wright

It's been 2030 days since Google pulled Fortnite, and the Epic vs. Google settlement is finally here. We sit down with AppCharge CMO Gil Tovly to read the fine print of Google’s new 15% fee, unpack the mandatory AI sidekicks in the "Level Up" program, and figure out if this is actually a win for developers going direct-to-consumer.Questions we answer in this episode:● What is the real cost of Google's new 15% fee structure?● What exactly is the "Level Up" program and why are top studios hesitating to join?● Do developers really have to integrate an AI sidekick into their games?● What does the settlement mean for existing users versus new users?● Does this change the math on building direct-to-consumer web shops?● When (if ever) will Apple follow Google’s lead and lower their App Store fees?● Is the Epic settlement a monumental win for the industry or just an anti-climactic sellout?Michail Katkoff | Gil Tovly

The Deconstructor of Fun crew is back from San Francisco, recovering from a whirlwind GDC week to break down the massive shifts hitting the industry. No prep, no scripts. Just the real conversation on whether the "lowest attendance since 2011" is a sign of a dying conference or just a more efficient executive retreat.Questions we answer in this episode:● What is the "one word" to describe the GDC 2026 vibe?● Is the 30% drop in attendance a death knell or a much-needed "senior-only" filter?● Did Tim Sweeney actually win his fight against Google, or is a 5% discount just "mice nuts"?● How will the new Google Play fee structure actually work?● Did anyone actually see a compelling AI-native game on the show floor this week?● Why is it so expensive to run real-time LLMs in a live game?● Why is a hardcore Korean MMO giant like NCSoft splurging $200M on a German rewarded-play platform?● What is the LinkedIn engagement "hack" that everyone needs to stop doing immediately?Jen Donahoe | Phil Black | Eric Kress | Mishka Katkoff

The full Deconstructor of Fun crew, all six of us, recorded live and on-site in San Francisco at the end of GDC week. No prep, no scripts. Just the real conversations from a week of side events, back channels, and late nights.Questions we answer in this episode:What's the one word that captures the mood of GDC 2025?Is GDC still relevant?What's the wildest rumor that we heard?Why is everyone at GDC publicly obsessed with AI?Did anyone actually see a compelling AI-native game this week? Where is investment money actually flowing in games right now? What's the one thing the industry needs to hear right now that nobody is saying out loud?Mishka Katkoff | Jen Donahoe | Eric Kress | Adam Telfer | Laura Toranto | Phil Black

Extraction shooters are finally confronting their identity crisis. Is Marathon the answer, or just another branch of the same lineage?Phil, Sides, and Anjos break down a pivotal moment for shooters: Highguard’s collapse, Marathon’s high-stakes launch, and Overwatch’s unexpected resurgence. The debate rage on: are we watching the evolution of battle royale into something more persistent, or just another iteration of Tarkov’s legacy?We discuss:● Highguard’s shutdown and the limits of modern marketing○ Hate-playing, sentiment collapse, and losing control of narrative post-launch● Marathon’s design thesis○ Persistent battle royale vs traditional extraction shooter lineage○ Lower friction loops, faster re-entry, and softened risk systems● The genre split○ Arc Raiders as first-principles PvE extraction○ Marathon as PvP-first with extraction layered on top● The missing innovation question○ What is Marathon’s true “Bungie leap” beyond sandbox combat + loot?● Overwatch’s resurgence○ Systems-driven live ops vs content arms race with Marvel Rivals● The future of shooter ecosystems○ Extraction, hero shooters, and the erosion of “black hole” games

Sam Aune from Sensor Tower breaks down the State of Gaming 2026 - from Battlefield 6 proving premium is far from dead, to why free-to-play is getting harder to break into, and how social indie games are driving viral success. In this episode, we go deep on mobile’s slowdown, strategy games dominating revenue, and how Chinese publishers are out-executing the West across both midcore and casual.CHAPTERS:00:00 Welcome and Report Setup00:43 State of Gaming Goes Beyond Mobile03:22 Trend One Battlefield Six Dominates05:05 Premium vs Free to Play Reality Check07:10 Hybrid Pricing and Live Ops Middle Ground09:01 Battlefield Six Marketing Playbook11:53 Indie Breakouts Repo and Peak12:31 Why Social Games Go Viral16:12 AAA Response and GTA Six Outlook18:08 Mobile Market Maturity and Consolidation20:37 Why Growth Stalls IDFA Saturation23:34 Strategy Genre Wins Worldwide26:41 Regional Genre Opportunities and New Hits28:00 Free Fire US Surge28:30 China Social Extraction28:52 Why China Wins31:47 Century Games Playbook34:23 How West Competes38:35 Indie Focus Advantage43:21 Web Store Incentives46:38 App Store Search Wars49:46 SEO Naming Strategy51:22 Report Wrap Up

We talk about how Pixel Flow scaled so quickly, why its core design works for monetization, and how games like Hexa Sort and Magic Sort helped push the sort puzzle genre forward.The discussion also covers UA, the wave of Pixel Flow-style clones appearing in the market, and whether hybrid-casual puzzle design is starting to influence traditional puzzle studios. We also touch on what kinds of mechanics might lead to the next big puzzle hit.

We discuss Turkey’s new government subsidies for game developers and why the country may become one of the most attractive places to build a studio, the uncertain future of WB Games following major media consolidation, and Discord delaying its global age-verification rollout after backlash and regulatory pressure. We also discuss the Misfits seed round from an ex-Supercell/King team, a correction around Tilting Point’s recent deal, Playtika surpassing $1B in direct-to-consumer revenue, and Ubisoft reshuffling leadership on Assassin’s Creed, along with broader conversation around monetization, web shops, and the state of the games industry heading into GDC.CHAPTERS01:53 LA Dinner and Downtown Vibes02:44 Mishka London Detour04:10 GDC Shilling and Events07:59 Tilting Point Deal Debate11:34 Appcharge Web Store Ad12:27 Misfits Seed Round Breakdown20:45 Turkey Subsidies Update23:17 Paramount Buys WB Fallout28:16 Assassins Creed Leadership Shuffle30:58 Discord Age Verification Backlash34:33 Roblox Lawsuits And Regulation36:25 Playtika DTC Numbers Breakdown38:51 Supercell Web Shop Playbook43:48 Marathon Server Slam Impressions45:07 Sales Forecasts And Sony Stakes50:58 Retention Wipes And Monetization55:23 Skate Layoffs And F2P Trap01:00:39 Gundam Collab And Sony PC Pivot01:03:57 Wrap Up And GDC Plans