Excess hot potatoes

Ian is joined this week by Jeremy Saunders & Brenden Donaher. The trio begins the show by talking about the elephant in the room, which is the FOMC meeting next week. Ian and Brenden discuss why a hike is likely, while Jeremy discusses the benefits of waiting until September. The discussion turns to the Bank of Canada, and why a boring BoC profile means micro trading the distribution of hikes is the only real trade. Ian outlines his view on duration, and why the structural and cyclical forces in both directions are roughly even. Brenden does a deep dive on CORRA, while Jeremy discusses his preference for owning carry on the CORRA/SOFR curve. The group finishes the episodes discussing North American swap spreads, and providing their favourite near-term trades. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ian is joined this week by Mike Cloherty, and the duo begin the show by discussing what to expect from the bond market when Middle East tension dissipates. The mechanics of the repricing are well understood, though Mike sees more downside risk to the very front-end given the current starting point of Fed expectations. Ian discusses why the CAD rates market has gotten so expensive, and why the repricing in the short-end has limits. The pair talk about CIBC’s new interest rate forecast and the risks around it, in addition to an updated view on the performance of swap spreads going forward. Mike discusses recent SOFR trends, and the show finishes off with a pop-quiz. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ian is joined this week by Dan Kelly, President & CEO of the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses (CFIB). The CFIB is the biggest non-profit organization in Canada, lobbying on behalf of their 100k+ members. The show begins with a discussion on how SMEs have weathered trade uncertainty and more recently, higher energy prices. Dan does a deep dive on labour market trends across the most active SME industries, noting that nearly 65% of all private sector labour demand comes from small businesses. The show progresses with other topics discussed like overall business sentiment, alternative measures of the job market, and how the federal government needs to refocus its productivity strategy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In the first episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm in 2026, Ian is joined by Ali Jaffery from CIBC economics and Jean Boivin, Head of BlackRock Global Investment Institute. Jean begins the episode by outlining his core investment themes for 2026 across asset classes. It is hard to talk about 2026 without discussing AI, and Jean provides his view on why the near-term economic impact is inflationary, versus the longer-run impact which is disinflationary. The group discusses the risks inherent in the AI buildout, opines on market pricing across regions, and finishes the episode with a deep-dive on the Canadian economy and inflation path. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Canada is weeks away from receiving the federal budget, which is creating a lot of interest from market participants. In this episode, Ian and Ali spend time discussing why this budget will look different than those in prior years. The introduction of the new framework, coupled with expectations of fiscal stimulus, make this a key event for markets. The show begins with Ali discussing the reasons for the changes to the framework, while Ian discusses why markets are so hyper-focused on how the budget will be financed. The pair spend some time talking about whether the Bank can ease rates after the budget has been released, focusing on the impact to the economy from the elevated fiscal spend. The show concludes with Ian discussing why markets are reluctant to price-in more from the Bank, while Ali opines on what a Blue Jays World Series win will do the economy! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Ian is joined by Brendan Donaher, Executive Director STIRT trading. The show begins by discussing the recent U.S. jobs report, and the implications to the perception of economic data going forward and how that should affect the bond market. Brenden discusses how FOMC pricing has evolved, and his favorite trades. The duo begin to discuss what Fed pricing means for BoC pricing, rightly noting how cheap CAD front-end valuations are. Brenden provides his view on what pension hedging means for Canadian cross-currency basis swaps, while also highlighting key themes in global funding markets. The show ends with a discussion on the BoC’s balance sheet, and which trades Ian and Brenden think offer the most attractive opportunities at present. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the co-hosts begin the show discussing the manic week that was. There was not a lot of visibility to the moves in bond and equity markets over the prior few sessions, and Jeremy discusses his view on what was real and what was myth. Ian spends some time talking about the lack of evidence to support a few of the theories that markets are thinking about. The duo spend time talking about the level of interest rates going forward, disagreeing on the most likely direction of longer-term interest rates over the coming weeks. Ian provides his view on what the Bank of Canada is likely to do at their meeting next week, while Jeremy gives an update on his Fed views. The show completes with Ian and Jeremy discussing their favourite expressions of macro themes in the bond market. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In the first episode of 2025, Ian is joined by Aaron Carter from the financing desk to discuss recent adjustments in the short-end. The show begins with the duo discussing the importance of the Bank of Canada’s move to change the way monetary policy is implemented, namely moving back into a corridor system. Aaron gives his ‘big picture’ view on why this is a real game-changer for CORRA, and his expectations around the evolution of the spread to the target rate. Ian takes time discussing the various administered rates in the Canadian short-end and how to think about the subset of arbitrage opportunities. Aaron finishes the episode by describing the incoming tri-party repo system and how that will interact with monetary policy going forward. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In a very special edition of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Stephen Poloz joins Ian as co-host for this week’s episode. The show begins by talking about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, and what potential trade uncertainty means for the Canadian economy and monetary policy. Stephen spends time talking about the structural underperformance of the Canadian economy relative to other OECD countries, and provides some suggestions on how it could be fixed. The duo discuss R*, and why the actual neutral rate is not moving as fast as markets may think. In the balance of the episode, the duo discusses the impact of higher longer-term interest rates on monetary policy, the role of a flexible exchange rate and, how much the BoC can diverge from the Fed. The show finishes with a discussion on Stephen’s new mandate with Canadian pension plans. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the show discussing the spate of U.S. jobs data last week. Ian discusses the internals of the JOLTS and NFP reports, noting the trend for U.S. labour demand is a negative one. Jeremy opines on his view on the election, and how the best opportunities are to fade recent flattening in the U.S. curve. They take some time to discuss the BoC, noting that recent data provides no confidence the Bank will slow down the cycle anytime soon. Ian outlines his view for a steeper swap-spread curve while Jeremy paints a picture of a flatter one. The pair spend some time talking about the specific tenors of the spread curve, and end the show outlining their favorite trades for the week ahead. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.