Feedback Loops and Tipping Points

Stability breeds instability. If your model assumes calm continuity, you might be blind to the pile of sand that's about to avalanche.  Many actuaries and financial modelers rely on recent data and linear trending of assumptions, missing the amplifying loops that can accelerate change to topple entire systems. We discuss what to look for instead. 

We are making decisions with incomplete and conflicting information every day.  Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) make it harder and harder to get those decisions right. Maybe we need to change our objective, not to find the best decision, but the one with the least chance of disastrous consequences.  Keep your eyes out for the Regime change that has started.  We provide four examples of what may be next.  

How do you make a confident decision when the information itself is unclear? Ambiguity is the core challenge of modern leadership. But the pursuit of perfect data to drive good decisions leads right into "analysis paralysis".  We need to be enhancing our capability to use strategies like satisficing—making the best possible decision within time constraints—and using narrative scenarios to communicate complex risks to non-experts. For professionals and graduates navigating an uncertain future, the key takeaway is that human judgment, creativity, and ethical reasoning are the skills AI cannot replicate and are most valuable in an ambiguous world.  

A jet engine is complicated. Your company is complex. The strategies for managing the risks of each are fundamentally—and dangerously—different. We call Complexity the "twist" in VUCA because it fundamentally changes the nature of the problems we face. While Volatility, Uncertainty, and Ambiguity describe challenging conditions, Complexity introduces a system where the parts are interdependent and adapt. This means you cannot solve a complex problem by simply breaking it into smaller, complicated parts and fixing them. Complexity is the twist: it's the element that makes VUCA environments truly unmanageable with old playbooks. You cannot apply a "complicated" solution to a "complex" problem and get the result that you want. 

Uncertainty is rising and AI is one of the most significant drivers.   Not because there is something wrong with AI, but because it is so different and so powerful.  We just do not know what changes are right around the corner.  We do believe that the future belongs to the companies who learn to best combine human empathy, creativity and the ability to navigate uncertainty with AI's speed of processing and power of connection making between existing ideas and new human insights.

We are entering a period of high risk coming from every direction that our current systems cannot hope to mitigate. This episode of Crossing Thin Ice looks ahead to 2026's major challenges. Hosts Dave and Max analyze interconnected risks—from economic fragility and climate change to AI's inflection bubble. They explore whether our systems are drifting toward crisis or a path to resilience. Tune in for a systems-thinking discussion on navigating financial, geopolitical, and technological headwinds.

Diversify food strategies, not just portfolios. Solutions like the Green Revolution and widespread monoculture farming boosted food supply but created long-term ecological and social vulnerabilities. We link population ideas from Franklin and Malthus to modern pressures—climate change, resource scarcity, migration—and warns these risks could cause solvency issues for insurers. Max discusses solutions for the agriculture sector as well as for insurers. You might consider adding this to your emerging risks list.  

Replace "this won't happen" with "what if" and give your strategy a fighting chance. Volatility isn’t just a number — it’s the signal that tells you whether your strategy will survive shocks or be blindsided by them. This podcast starts our VUCA series and shows why time horizon, human bias, and narrative scenarios matter more than averages. Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity to follow.  

Execution isn’t speed or perfection. It’s reliable delivery under chaos. Use these six steps to get there. Great ideas can fail simply because execution breaks down? In episode 70 of Crossing Thin Ice, hosts Max Rudolph and David Ingram show how risk management helps with good execution to turn plans into predictable profit. This episode walks through six practical pillars that make execution reliable even when reality diverges from the plan. You’ll hear real-world examples you can take up and apply with the help of your ERM program. This conversation is practical, practitioner-focused, and geared to leaders who want execution that survives stress and delivers consistent results.

Most ORSA reports definitely fall into the TLDR category. But you can tell the ORSA with a clear, fast story that will become a part of the strategy discussion. This podcast tells how to turn a dense solvency exercise into an elevator pitch that earns attention, builds confidence, and links risk work to strategy. You’ll see why some ERM programs thrive and others wither, and how a small change in communication can protect capital and enhance decision-making. Read this if you want your next ORSA to be useful, not just compliant — and to get executives listening. Skip the noise—make your ORSA count today. Read the blog post:  https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/orsa-rides-the-elevator