Developers diversify as data centers reshape CRE capital and demand

Cole and Omar interview Andrew Pabon, Altus Group’s Director of Valuation Advisory, to break down the Q3 2026 US debt capital markets survey results. With Treasury yields spiking above 5% and the Fed signaling “even higher for even longer,” they explore what’s changed in CRE lending and borrowing. Construction financing has roared back with quotes jumping from 3% to 13% of activity, but borrowers hit pause at the end of the quarter as uncertainty peaked. Spreads widened across the board, floating-rate products returned as lenders and borrowers seek clarity, and fixed-rate loans took the biggest hit from yield movements. They also discuss seniors housing as the hot sector, how negative leverage is affecting valuations, and the gap between legacy loan coupons and today’s elevated rates.Resources:Andrew PabonCole PerryOmar EltoraiAltus Group Q3 2026 US Debt Capital Markets SurveySOFR5-year Treasury benchmark10-year Treasury benchmarkKey moments:03:14 The new market narrative04:18 The construction paradox: quotes jump despite rising rates06:48 Underwriting without a Fed roadmap09:42 Spread compression stalls across the pricing grid12:11 Floating-rate products return14:09 Who’s borrowing and lending for construction now17:14 Fixed-rate loans hit harder by yield moves than floating20:16 Stable bank data vs. rising market pricing

Cole and Omar just got back from the CREDA conference in Denver, and they brought Shawn Moura, Executive Director of the Commercial Real Estate Development Association (CREDA) Research Foundation, into the studio to break down what he’s seeing in the industry. With 16 years of research experience (including a PhD in history and time at Hanover Research), Shawn leads CREDA’s research efforts for the organization’s 21,000+ members across 55 chapters. CREDA represents the full spectrum of commercial real estate development, and through its Research Foundation, delivers forward-looking insights on trends and challenges shaping the industry. In this episode, we talk about why developers are spreading across more property types, how data centers became the force reshaping everything - from capital flows to electricity access to office demand - and what CREDA’s research is showing heading into 2027. Industrial is rebounding, multifamily is softening, and office keeps declining, but data centers are the story everyone needs to understand.Resources mentioned:Shawn MouraCole PerryOmar EltoraiCommercial Real Estate Development Association (CREDA) Research FoundationCREDA Sentiment IndexIndustrial Space Demand Forecast, Third Quarter 2026Managing Sustainability Risk in Data Center DevelopmentDeveloping, Owning and Operating Shallow Bay Industrial BuildingsKey moments:01:18 Introducing Shawn Moura06:01 Why CREDA rebranded from NAIOP09:17 What value CREDA research provides to members14:29 Industrial demand forecast19:35 How data centers are reshaping the entire industry22:17 CREDA’s priorities heading into 2027 and beyond

Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai work through the latest economic data that's reshaping commercial real estate: labor weakening in office sectors, construction capital concentrating almost entirely in data centers, and the 10-year treasury closing at 5.29% - the highest since 2002. Credit spreads tell an interesting story, diverging sharply between investment-grade and high-yield. The back half dives into Cole's research on power infrastructure and industrial pricing: whether proximity to power generation actually moves property values, how that premium has shifted since 2022, and what it signals about where industrial demand is headed.Key moments:02:00 Labor data05:30 Consumer confidence falling, personal savings at record lows11:50 Treasury yields spike to 5.29%13:40 K-shape in credit spreads18:50 CRE sorting market20:30 Fundamentals remain strong28:00 Power infrastructure researchResources:Cole Perry - https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Omar Eltorai - https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index - https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-announcements/article/sp-cotality-case-shiller-index-reports-annual-gain-in-july-2026/Consumer Confidence - https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htmGDP (Third Estimate) - https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productPersonal Income and Outlays - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026September Employment Situation - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmADP National Employment Report - https://adpemploymentreport.com/

Om ar Eltorai and Cole Perry sit down with Michael Clawar, Senior Vice President of Innovation at Altus Group, to talk about where AI is creating real value in commercial real estate and where the industry still has work to do. Michael walks through how the cost of AI intelligence has dropped dramatically in just the past year and what that means for tasks like portfolio-level valuation reviews. The conversation covers why data infrastructure and institutional knowledge matter more than the model you pick, the trade-offs between centralized and business-led technology operating models, and a recent NBER study on how AI benefits senior and junior professionals differently, with real implications for talent development in CRE.Resources:Michael Clawar - https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-clawar/Cole Perry - https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Omar Eltorai - https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/ARGUS Assist - https://www.altusgroup.com/solutions/argus-intelligence/argus-assist/National Bureau of Economic Research Study - https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w35720/w35720.pdf

Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai break down a data-heavy week for the US economy and what it means for commercial real estate. They cover the latest construction, labor, and PMI readings, then turn to the Fed's August 2026 Beige Book for qualitative color on office bifurcation, multifamily concessions, and data centers as the dominant construction story across Districts. The back half focuses on a sharp move higher in global bond yields and what's driving it, followed by a historical look at how CRE has actually performed through four past episodes of rising real yields over the last three decades. Key moments:01:30 Construction, labor, and PMIs12:05 Fed Beige Book18:10 Global bond market moves24:35 What higher rates mean for CRE29:10 How CRE has performed through past rate cycles34:40 Inflation-adjusted transaction volume Resources:Cole PerryOmar EltoraiCensus Bureau - Value of Construction Put in Place reportJOLTSADPBLSFederal Reserve Beige Book (August 2026)Q2 2026 US CRE investment and transactions quarterly

Omar Eltorai sits down with Mike Amthor, who leads US Performance Evaluation Analytics, and Cole Perry, Associate Director of US Research at Altus Group, to compare the Q2 2026 NCREIF ODCE Index against the Investment and Transactions Quarterly (ITQ) report. Two separate data sets, but a cohesive story: values continue a light upward trend driven by cash flow fundamentals, while transaction dollar volume climbs even as deal count still lags year-over-year. The conversation covers a capital movement from multifamily into industrial, cross-validated strength in storage and medical office, and a caveat on the office recovery narrative.Key moments01:55 ODCE Index explained03:27 ITQ data overview04:41 Q2 ODCE headlines06:24 Q2 transactions headlines08:04 Valuations vs deals10:57 ODCE sector trends13:39 Transaction sector trends15:49 Storage and medical office18:50 Market spotlights23:43 New ITQ Metrics28:08 Client pulse and outlookResources mentionedMike Amthor – https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-amthor-40865154/ Cole Perry - https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/ Altus ODCE Index results webinar – https://www.altusgroup.com/webinars/ncreif-odce-index-quarterly-analysis Altus US CRE Investment and Transactions Quarterly report - https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-transactions/

A year after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed and with Opportunity Zones now entering a second act, the tax and structuring landscape for CRE has evolved. In this episode of CRE Exchange, Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai sit down with Lisa Knee, Managing Partner of Real Estate Services at EisnerAmper, to unpack what has changed. Lisa shares her knowledge on which OB3 provisions are impacting deals a year later, walks through the mechanics of Opportunity Zones 2.0, including the adjustment to a permanent program with rolling five-year deferrals, and discusses what she’s seeing in fund formation as investors demand more transparency and standardized reporting. Key moments01:18 Lisa’s role at Eisner Amper08:56 OB3 tax bill impacts14:00 Opportunity Zones 2.0 overview24:19 Avoiding QOF structuring pitfalls33:50 AI capital and city revivals36:21 Outlook on the next 12 months38:00 Where to follow Lisa38:43 One industry change wishResources mentionedLisa Knee – https://www.linkedin.com/in/lisaknee/ OZ 2.0 Guidebook - https://www.eisneramper.com/insights/real-estate/transitional-guidance-on-qualified-opportunity-zones-0826/

Treasuries moved up, spreads continued to compress, and office financing costs kept improving; that's the Q2 2026 story in broad strokes, though the drama is in the details. In this episode of CRE Exchange, Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai sit down with Andrew Pabon, Altus Group's Director of Debt Advisory, to break down what the Q2 Debt Capital Markets Survey is showing. SOFR has effectively bottomed while five and ten-year Treasuries moved up 20 to 30 basis points, spread compression continued but fell short of fully offsetting those benchmark moves on fixed-rate products, and deal structuring conversations have fully repriced to a higher-for-longer world. The episode also covers a split signal in CMBS delinquency data, what the private credit stress story might mean for private CRE credit, and why office's improving financing picture comes with an important caveat.Key moments00:56 Market backdrop03:08 Q2 survey shift07:50 Rates and curve moves11:24 Spread compression15:26 Property type signals19:02 Banks and lender mix22:09 Post survey changes23:15 Credit stress readthrough26:15 Survey Invitation WrapResources mentionedAndrew Pabon - https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-pabon-15a6976/ Debt Capital Market Survey - https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/

Capital is rotating, the line between real estate and infrastructure is blurring, and the deals getting done today look different from those of even three years ago. In this episode of CRE Exchange, Omar Eltorai sits down with Tim Bodner, who leads PwC's US and global real estate deals practice, to discuss the firm's 2026 midyear CRE outlook. They cover the real assets convergence thesis, why operational prowess is replacing cap rate compression as the primary value driver, where REIT consolidation goes from here, and how private capital is redefining the dealmaking landscape. Key moments02:10 Midyear outlook key shifts03:35 Real assets convergence07:18 Operating prowess and AI09:07 VCs owning hard assets10:56 Where AI gets used today13:50 Industry bifurcation and new entrants18:09 REIT discounts and consolidation24:26 Private capital and capital solutions28:27 Themes for the back half of 202629:51 Policy uncertainty and data centers31:06 Lightning round and wrapResources mentionedTim Bodner - https://www.linkedin.com/in/timbodner/Navigating the capital rotation and AI-driven convergence reshaping real estate and real assets dealmaking - https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/financial-services/library/asset-wealth-management-real-estate-deals-outlook.html

The latest CRE Exchange covers a packed week of data and market. Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai work through the June CPI print, consumer credit pullback, and existing home sales data before digging into the WSJ economist survey and Fed meeting minutes, where the most notable detail is a credit market splitting between large and small borrowers. The episode closes with early Q2 bank earnings from the four largest US banks, including reserve releases on office CRE loans at Bank of America and Wells Fargo that suggest the office credit cycle may be turning, and lender scrutiny around data center financing may be growing.Key moments01:50 Inflation hedge data03:13 Patriotic owners trivia06:57 Consumer credit update08:56 Housing and CPI prints12:31 WSJ Economist Survey22:59 Fed minutes breakdown29:34 Big bank earnings takeaways36:23 New segment: CRE Bag O’ Random!42:38 Upcoming Calendar and WrapResources mentionedConsumer Credit — G.19 (May 2026) - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htmExisting Home Sales — June 2026 - https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-2-4-decrease-in-juneConsumer Price Index — June 2026 - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htmWSJ Economist Survey — July 2026 - https://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998FOMC Meeting Minutes — June 16–17, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htmMassachusetts YIGBY Bill — H.5562 - https://malegislature.gov/Bills/194/H5562