64. Economy, Energy, and The Odds Of a Recession

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Ukraine’s counteroffensive last week was shockingly effective. Sim rejoins the show to explain what is happening on the ground…and to tease out the chances and attendant implications of a Russian defeat.Sim Tack is Military Analyst at Force Analysis and GEOINT Analyst at AllSource Analysis. You can follow him on Twitter @SimTack.NYTimes article referenced hereTimeStamps:1:54-11:15 – What’s happening?11:15-23:35 – Ukraine’s Strategy23:35-28:04 – Europe’s Resolve28:04-42:10 – Russia’s Options42:10-end – Implications of Russia’s DefeatCognitive Investments Link

ONE MORE MONTH OF PERCH POD BEFORE WE FINALLY, PERMANENTLY, IRREVOCABLY, IRRECOVERABLY, SWITCH TO THE COGNITIVE DISSIDENTS FEED. GO!!!SUBSCRIBE!!!NOW >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> LINK HEREMatt Pines, yet ANOTHER connection via the Twittersphere, breaks down the present day risks associated with cyber warfare and espionage across geopolitical boundaries. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute. He is appearing on the podcast in a personal capacity. Here is a link to Matt's white paper on bitcoin.Tiestamps:1:37 - 20:20 - Cyberwarfare20:20 - 28:00- 5G + China + Huawei28:00 - 34:44 - Trust Networks34:30 - 45:35 - Has there every been a full-on cyber war?45:35 - End - Let's talk bitcoin!

Take some time with us to explore the Sino-Australian breakup drama and hear an honest opinion from a real life Australian (his name is John Fowler and he's a former Australian diplomat and international lawyer) on why relations between the two are slowly but surely deteriorating. John and Jacob also talk AUS/NZ relations, viewpoints on the South Pacific and much, much, much more. John is co-founder and CEO of International Intrigue, a newsletter at the intersection of geopolitics, business, and technology. We've included a link because you should go subscribe to it. TimeStamps:2:30-19:37 – Australia/China relations19:37-25:20 – Australia/New Zealand relations25:20-39:32 – The South Pacific39:32-46:30 – Indonesia46:30-57:57 – Latin America/France/Antarctica 57:59-1:05:30 – Taiwan1:05:30 – International IntrigueCognitive Investments Link

Check out the Cognitive Dissidents Pod here!! Subscribe before it's too late!!How do inflationary cycles work? Are we in a tech innovation environment or are we just iterating on the same old concepts? Also, what constitutes "old"? Jordi Visser joins us this week to discuss these questions and much, much more (yes, we mean China).Jordi Visser is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC, a market neutral pioneer of the asset management industry. At Weiss, Jordi oversees the portfolio managers and is responsible for the overall risk aggregation. Additionally, he is the architect and a portfolio manager for the Weiss Alternative Multi-Strategy Fund (Ticker: WEISX). Weiss Morning Seeds: https://hubs.la/Q01jhfjY0Weiss Insights: https://hubs.la/Q01jhftd0Weiss Podcast Page: https://hubs.la/Q01jhgds0Timestamps:2:20-14:42 – Inflation/Deflation14:42-35:50 – Tech/longevity35:50-45:38 – mRNA45:38-1:03:30 – Energy1:03:00 – end – China

Peter Mayer discusses the history the Colorado River Basin - and why it's a canary in the coal mine for the waves of water issues already sweeping the globe. Water access conflicts are going to escalate both nationally and internationally as the globe heats and our atmosphere's composition fluctuates. Peter and Jacob dive into the conflicts already occurring, ( eg. the Georgia vs. Florida water wars), the future of agriculture, and how we conserve water for posterity.Peter is a professional engineer and urban water expert and the Principal and Founder of Water Demand Management. For more than 25 years, his work has focused on urban water management, water use patterns, assessing the impact of water rate structures and metering, evaluating water conservation measures and programs, forecasting future demand with and without conservation, preparing water conservation plans and conducting water supply scenario analysis. Link to Lake Mead pics: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150111/lake-mead-keeps-droppingPeter’s website: https://www.waterdm.com/TimeStamps2:34-30:30 – Colorado River Basin30:30-42:30 – Georgia v. Florida on water. (If I could have this on in the background during this section I would.)42:30-50:30 – Agriculture50:30 – Pete’s pastCognitive Investments Link

Subscribe to The Cognitive Dissidents Podcast here to avoid missing out on episode after August!Rodger Baker is Executive Director at the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE – Risk Assistance Network + Exchange.Timestamps3:00-25:13: Mackinder and the Arctic25:13-34:30: The Art of the Net Assessment34:30-44:30: The biggest change of the last 25 years…and the biggest change to come44:30-56:54: Will China invade Taiwan?56:54-end: Around the world: Poland, Turkey, Indonesia, Korea, Brazil, and more

Marko and Jacob explore the rumbles in the US Economy, energy trends, and geopolitical headwinds across the hemispheres. Marko Papic is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group.Timestamps:2:00-14:00 – U.S. Economy14:00-21:36 – Oil/Natural Gas21:36-35:54 – Europe35:54-42:00 – China42:00-52:52 – Saudi Arabia50:52-59:11 – India59:11-1:10:11 – Food1:10:11-1:16:31 – Recession odds1:16:31- end: Basketball

Sim Tack revisits the Ukraine-Russia conflict with Jacob to talk about the war as it drags into its later stages. Sim is Chief Military Analyst at Force Analysis. His expertise is in intelligence-driven approaches to the study of armed conflicts and military capabilities, as well as other resources of power that support foreign policy behavior. You can follow him on Twitter @SimTackTimestamps4:30-16:45 – Russia-Ukraine War Update16:45-19:45 – Grain tangent19:45-27:15 – Who is winning? How important is Western support?27:15-36:30 – Russia’s military capacity36:30-48:45 – The future of NATO48:45-56:45 – Talking about Turkey56:45-end – Deep strikes Questions? Comments? Reach out at: [email protected]: https://perchperspectives.com