Isabel Hardman's Sunday Roundup - 16/02/2025

Foreign affairs are inescapable this week, with the readout from the meeting yesterday between Russian and American diplomats in Saudi Arabia. We understand that Trump told Putin that Ukraine will be part of the next round of peace talks. However, Trump’s shock-and-awe foreign policy continues to deliver significantly more shock than awe, especially after he seemingly blamed Ukraine for starting the war. What is he thinking? Could there be more to Trump's foreign policy than he is letting on?  Back in the UK, pressure is mounting on Rachel Reeves as more inaccuracies in her CV come to light, and inflation rises to 3 per cent. There have been murmurs that she could be replaced, but is there a viable candidate to replace her? And would anything actually change if she was reshuffled?  Oscar Edmondson speaks to Kate Andrews and James Heale. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

The future of Ukraine is being decided in a meeting between US and Russian diplomats in Saudi Arabia today. So far, we understand that America will insist that Ukraine is recognised as a sovereign nation, but NATO membership remains off the table. Meanwhile, European leaders have been cut out of the conversations. In response, they held their own summit yesterday, but it didn’t seem like they were all singing from the same hymn sheet. While the UK is pushing for higher defence spending and is willing to commit troops, other European nations seem more dovish, especially Germany and Italy. This is reflected in opinion polls as well. What's going on?  Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and James Johnson, director at JL Partners. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

There is lots to make sense of today in a huge week for European and world politics, with the fallout of the Munich Conference and today’s emergency summit in Paris. European powers are trying to navigate peace in Ukraine in the face of a belligerently isolationist Trump administration. The UK is caught between preserving its privileged position with the US and the desire for a European reset, as well as the need for an end to the war in Ukraine without giving in to Russia. Can Starmer bridge the transatlantic chasm that has opened up? Do the Europeans want us, and do the Americans need us?  Events in Europe will be incredibly consequential here in the UK. In an op-ed for The Telegraph, the Prime Minister has confirmed that he is ready and willing to put British troops in Ukraine and has set out plans to maintain the manifesto promise to pledge 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence spending, going against the Treasury. How difficult will it be for Starmer to make the case for increased defence spending? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows. Next week, European leaders will hold an emergency summit in response to Trump attempting to seize control of the Ukraine peace process. This morning, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds attempted to downplay any rift between the US and its European allies, but accepted that Europe had to contribute more to its own defence. Priti Patel claimed that it was too early to say what the US's position on Ukraine will be. And we also hear about how technology could allow us to design plants which revolutionise agriculture.

It is 50 years since Margaret Thatcher was elected Conservative leader, and at this week’s shadow cabinet meeting, Lord Forsyth was invited as a guest speaker to mark the occasion. He noted the similarities between 1975 and 2025. Back then, the party was broke, reeling from defeat and facing the fallout from a reorganisation of local government. But, despite threadbare resources, Thatcher managed to rebuild to win power four years later. ‘You have the potential to do the same,’ Forsyth told Kemi Badenoch. However, when asked if a young Thatcher would have been drawn to the right’s insurgent Reform Party, Nigel Farage replied, ‘I don’t think there’s any doubt about it.’ He even claimed that Thatcher had voted UKIP in 1999. ‘She believed in meritocracy, she put Jewish people in her cabinet, working-class people like Norman Tebbit. She would have hated wokery and diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI),’ said Farage.  What would Mrs Thatcher have thought of the current state of the Conservative Party? Might Reform have appealed to her?  James Heale speaks to Lord Forsyth. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Leaders from around the world are gathering at the Munich Security Conference, with the UK represented by Foreign Secretary David Lammy. All attention has turned to Ukraine, given statements this week by President Trump that he had spoken to Putin (and later Zelensky) about ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump's statements, for example that NATO membership should be off the table, put him at odds with European allies. The UK signed a joint statement with leaders from France, Germany and others, that Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity are unconditional. Is the UK walking a tight-rope between the US and Europe? Where does this leave the NATO alliance? And, with a strategic defence review underway, what should the UK's approach to defence spending be? Patrick Gibbons speaks to James Heale and The Spectator's Russia correspondent Owen Matthews. Produced by Patrick Gibbons. 

On this special episode of Coffee House Shots, economics editor Kate Andrews is joined by shadow home secretary Chris Philp to discuss the Tories’ newly announced plan to tackle immigration. On legal migration, their proposal includes plans to end worklessness in order to stop the reliance on low-paid migrant workers. And on illegal migration, the line is ‘zero tolerance’ on small boats, including a removals deterrent much like the Rwanda plan, as well as other changes to the legal framework. One of the more controversial elements of their strategy is on citizenship. The Tories want to increase the period before migrants can apply for indefinite leave to remain (ILR) from five to ten years, and after that, it will take a further five years – rather than 12 months – to achieve British citizenship. Which safe and legal pathways would people be able to use? How would the Conservatives ensure that the ‘best and the brightest’ are allowed in? Produced by Natasha Feroze and Oscar Edmondson.

It’s a double celebration for Rachel Reeves today. Not only is it her birthday, but the UK economy grew by 0.1 per cent in the last three months of 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics’ latest report. December, when the economy expanded by 0.4 per cent (the market consensus had been 0.1 per cent), was the saving grace. This helped tip the final quarter of 2024 onto the right side of positive growth. But it’s not all rosy for the Chancellor. This morning’s update won’t take anyone in the Treasury off high alert, and there has been a development in the story about her CV. The BBC has been looking into her expenses during her time at Halifax bank. The Chancellor’s response is that she had no knowledge that there was an investigation into wrongdoing. Will it be a happy birthday after all? Elsewhere, it’s a big day at The Spectator. In this week’s issue, we have launched The Spectator Project Against Frivolous Funding (SPAFF). This online tool lets readers explore the wastelands of government procurement contracts, reckless credit card splurges and absurd research grants. Spoiler alert: there’s no shortage of material. Can you find more wasteful funding? Go to: spectator.co.uk/spaff Oscar Edmondson speaks to Kate Andrews and Michael Simmons. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Today was the final PMQs before recess, and Kemi Badenoch had been hoping to leave on a high before the break. She started promisingly, opening with the case of a family from Gaza being granted asylum in the UK under the scheme designed for Ukrainians. Starmer replied to say he disagreed with the decision of the courts and that the Home Secretary was already looking at how to close the ‘legal loophole’ enabling that decision. But Badenoch seemingly hadn't prepared for his rebuttal, exposing once again the weakness of her own technique. Does she risk being outshone by her own backbenchers? Also on the podcast, Kim Leadbeater is having to duck suggestions that she has watered down the safeguards in the Assisted Dying Bill by removing the need for a High Court judge. Can the Bill survive? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Isabel Hardman and James Heale. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Kemi Badenoch has been Conservative Party leader for 100 days. Her party is fighting for survival, and she faces an uphill task greater than many of her predecessors: Reform UK surging in the polls, a depleted talent pool of just 121 MPs, and the hangover of 14 years of Conservative rule leaving her hamstrung on issues such as immigration and the economy. Has she managed to transform the party? What will the next 100 days look like? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Paul Goodman. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.