What will the Fed do ahead of US midterm elections?

Bond yields are up around the world, but maybe “bond rout” isn’t the best way to describe it, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “I would not really say ‘rout’, but a sustained rise”, Markus says, adding that this supports the Private Bank’s long-held belief that interest rates will remain elevated. “Higher for longer is the name of the game.”In the week ahead, the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting will be closely scrutinised by markets for greater detail on the recent rate rise and the mood among central bank governors heading toward the end of the year. But Markus notes there will be plenty of other macroeconomic data worth watching, including US consumer confidence, German factory orders, and eurozone retail sales.For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.comIn Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

The continued rise in consumer prices will have multiple effects going forward, notes Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, beyond the pressure it places on central-bank policy. “We are in the midst of an inflationary boom, which means that the growth numbers are going to be much higher,” Deepak says. “There is a concern that further policy adjustments are still needed to ensure inflation comes back to the stated target. And there's also a concern that the longer the higher inflation persists, the more challenging it's going to be to bring it down.”With corporate earnings season nearly upon us, Deepak says that markets will be watching for a continuation of the strong reports seen in 2026. “The reason why we're using the term ‘earning super cycle’ is because it is really a golden age for earnings,” Deepak says. “The stock market would love to see a continuation of the very strong earnings that we have had so far this year.”In the week ahead, jobs data and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge are likely to get a lot of attention, but Deepak also points to matters of interest in the political world, including the conclusion of the recent Trump-Xi summit, and polling data that is consistently pointing to a likely strong showing for Democrats in the midterm elections.For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.comIn Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Fixed income has taken the spotlight in financial markets, as yields have jumped just about everywhere — and there are several reasons behind the shift, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. “Bonds have been a massive driver for markets, not only on the fixed income side, but also for equities,” Christian says, adding that energy prices, concerns about debt sustainability, and high levels of bond issuance are all supporting the move.Readings on consumer sentiment in the US and eurozone are due in the week ahead. But Christian points to an expected meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi as noteworthy for markets, as topics for discussion could include conflicts in the Middle East, energy prices, and artificial intelligence. For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.comIn Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are due to make rate decisions, and markets will be watching for confirmation that recent tremors in the bond market haven’t upended policy plans, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets.“What's interesting is that the markets aren't really obsessing over whether rates move higher this month or next month,” Jacky says. “I think what they're trying to figure is whether central banks are still comfortable with the inflation story.”A group of economic reports from China will also be important to watch this week, due to what they could mean for both the region and the world, Jacky says. “If Chinese growth started looking firmer tomorrow, that has implications for commodity demand, implications for the Asian markets, and also implications for a lot of global companies that generate a significant part of their revenues in China.”For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.comIn Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

The Private Bank just held its quarterly exercise in updating its forecasts for markets and economies, and EMEA CIO Dr. Dirk Steffen says that expectations for stocks remain strong. "The main takeaway from our CIO day was our constructive take longer term on equities, because it's mainly driven by earnings,” Dirk says, though he also notes that “we also focus a lot on risk management because this won't be a straight line up.”In the week ahead, Dirk says he’s going to be watching for US inflation figures, as well as a coming policy decision from the European Central Bank. Regarding the ECB, he thinks the market may be pricing in more rate rises in the coming 12 months than are likely to take place.For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.comIn Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Looking ahead from the Jackson Hole Symposium, the rate trajectory is the most important question for the remaining months of 2026, says Christian Nolting, Private Bank's Global CIO. "Because we see energy prices still elevated which is unlikely to change substantially and that causes some reaction function for the central banks to fight inflation,” Christian says. “Most central banks are starting to hike, though not massively. That has implications for a lot of governments looking at the longer end of the yield curve, and that longer end is very very important and could cause some market volatility.” Christian says investors must deal with this environment of higher rates for longer and not wait for yields to come down, but he believes this will bring opportunities, for example in investment grade bonds.For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.comIn Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Yields on long-end U.S. Treasuries have recently climbed to multi-year highs, and it’s a pattern that is being seen around the world, notes Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “This is not just only a U.S. phenomenon”, Deepak says, pointing to falling bond prices and climbing rates in Germany, Japan, the U.K. and other regions. High levels of government debt, central-bank credibility, and inflation concerns are among the factors behind it.Stock prices have also had their bumps, but they’ve generally been less severe, and Deepak says that a reduction in geopolitical risk factors could be a catalyst for stocks in the coming months, as could “a strong enterprise adoption of AI.”In the week ahead, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is likely to be of particular importance, as analysts are expecting it to come in higher than the central bank’s target of 2%. Chip-maker earnings will also be closely watched, along with the Jackson Hole conference of central banks from around the world.For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.comIn Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Geopolitical tensions have continued to dominate headlines in recent weeks, but markets appear to be taking a broader view. In this week's edition of the CIO Weekly Investment Outlook, Christian Nolting, Global Chief Investment Officer at Deutsche Bank Private Bank, discusses why, despite ongoing uncertainty, "it's not all about the Iran situation" for investors.Christian explores the forces helping to support market sentiment, reflects on what has been a "stellar earnings season" so far, and explains why the full investment picture may be more nuanced than the headlines suggest. The conversation also examines recent developments in the Japanese yen, the challenges of influencing currency markets, and how investors should interpret the latest policy actions and signals from central banks.Looking ahead, Christian discusses why markets are paying close attention to the Federal Reserve's upcoming July meeting minutes and highlights several economic releases and policy decisions on his radar, from Europe to Asia. Even during the quieter summer trading period, investors will need to "watch this very, very closely".For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.comIn Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Big tech earnings in the US have stolen a lot of headlines, but that should not distract from gains being made in other sectors and regions, says Dr Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank’s EMEA CIO. “The rally this year is not solely based on artificial intelligence and big tech companies. We have also other regions joining the earnings party,” Dirk says. “It’s good to see this broadening out.”US inflation data is likely to take centre stage in the week ahead, Dirk says, as it will offer “a prelude to something more important we’ll get next week, when we have a look at the minutes of the last Fed meeting.” That’s because markets will be looking for more information on the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision and outlook.For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.comIn Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Stock markets have had some stumbles recently, with selloffs in the technology sector followed by rapid recoveries, but the fundamentals of the AI rally have not changed, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets. “The reality is these stocks have had incredible runs so far this year. So investors are constantly asking themselves whether they've become a little bit too optimistic,” Jacky says. “To me, this feels more like a market that's digesting the gains rather than a market that is losing its way.”In the week ahead, the US jobs report is likely to be the event to watch, particularly after recent debates around how much the Federal Reserve is willing to do to control inflation. “The market is obsessed with trying to figure out what the Fed would do next. And I think the jobs report is one of the biggest clues,” Jacky says. “The last payroll number came in softer than expected. So everyone is waiting to see whether it was just a temporary wobble or the start of a broader cooling trend.”For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.comIn Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121