
Markets keep tabs on Iran negotiations, and a new Fed chair
A relief rally followed the US-Iran preliminary peace deal, as “the agreement provides a clear relief for global energy markets”, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets – though he notes that any stumbles in the peace process “could quickly reverse the recent decline in oil prices and also bring volatility back in the global markets.”
Meanwhile, the first Federal Reserve policy decision under Chairman Kevin Warsh revealed a more hawkish position in light of recent inflation concerns. “While the Fed continues to signal a gradual easing path further out, I think the expected timing and the pace of the cut will be delayed to the first quarter of next year”, Jacky says.
In light of this, an important item on this week’s data calendar will be the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, though Jacky says he will also be keeping an eye on measures of business activity in the US and Europe.
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