Baiguan Radio #28: Trade war, Boeing, Jensen Huang, high-sea fishing, Xi's Southeast Asia trip

For a curated, reader-friendly transcript, read here.Highlights[00:56] US-China "truce" and the aftermath[09:31] Roll-back of Biden's AI Diffusion with warning letters against China[19:28] China and Latin America are getting closer[24:59] The new rules encouraging M&A activities This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.baiguan.news/subscribe

[01:16] US-China trade talks[08:06] US-UK trade deal and rewiring of global trade systems[09:39] India-Pakistan air combat and the role of Chinese weapons[16:45] Victory Day parade in Moscow[19:38] New stimulus policies in China[25:40] CIA’s promotion video[29:36] April’s surprisingly good trade data This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.baiguan.news/subscribe

[01:23] China’s openness to talk about tariffs[12:18] Top leadership on AI[19:24] “Five-Year Plan” as China’s industry policy and the upcoming 15th FYP[27:01] China lifted sanctions on the EU’s MEPs, paving the way for a bigger China-EU deal?[31:05] Labor Day holiday crowds This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.baiguan.news/subscribe

Welcome to a new collaboration episode between Baiguan, Zichen Wang of Pekingnology and Johnny Zou of East8’s Newsletter. It has been several weeks now since we shared our thoughts on the important events of the past week. In this episode, we cover: [00:41] Robert’s experience of publishing an opinion piece on the New York Times discussing China’s resolve in the trade war.[06:32] Significance of China halting Boeing deliveries[8:08] Jensen Huang’s China visit: Is it a slap on Trump’s face, or is Jensen actually the “go-between”?[17:13] Bloomberg’s story about China’s willingness to talk, with certain preconditions. How true is that?[19:14] Reshuffling of top China’s trade negotiator: what does it mean?[21:00] The end of “high-sea fishing”?[29:05] Xi’s Southeast Asia visit This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.baiguan.news/subscribe

Welcome to another collaboration episode between Baiguan, Pekingnology’s Zichen Wang and East8’s Johnny Zou. Highlights[3:30] Did Trump plan for all of this?[12:42] Optimism about China-EU relationship[21:06] Pessimism about China-EU relationship[23:10] Will China see Trump’s “electronic exemption” as a chance to soften its stance?[27:13] Who in the Trump team can actually call the Chinese side now?[30:31] The hope for China’s domestic demand policies[35:11] What’s the right policy to boost domestic demand?[39:58] Where does the money to boost domestic demand come from?[47:01] Are Chinese assets in the US in danger of confiscation? This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.baiguan.news/subscribe

This week, Zichen Wang of Pekingnology and I are joined by Johnny Zou, a leading Hong Kong-based venture capitalist who also writes at East8’s Newsletter (#97 rising business Substack right now, previously known as MJ Finance). We discussed last week's most important news item: Trump’s tariff war and its implications for China.Highlights[00:46] Tariff, first impressions[09:46] Is the US underestimating China?[15:00] How would middle-powers from Japan to Vietnam respond?[22:44] Will China have closer integration with the rest of the world or more trade friction?[29:27] Investment strategy post-Liberation day[35:48] How will this affect China’s domestic demand[40:02] SCMP’s science reporting[40:54] Johnny: We shouldn’t ignore RCEP, which could be important for this tariff war This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.baiguan.news/subscribe

Hi everyone, welcome to another collaboration episode between Pekingnology and Baiguan.Quick notice: we heard some complaints about the audio quality of our previous episodes recently, and so we have made special efforts to improve the experience this time. We hope you enjoy it better!Summary[00:52] Xi met global CEOs[04:25] What’s more serious for foreign businesses in China, organic domestic competition or the alleged policy discrimination?[10:00] Some Western firms (such as top consulting firms) are facing pressure at home to do business with China[12:06] There is also discrimination against local businesses, benefiting the foreign businesses.[15:22] Bo’ao and the discussion to increase pension payments for farmers[21:12] Trump's tariffs on all auto imports and their indirect impact on China[25:20] SOE automaker consolidation policy, as a counter-argument against the idea that China’s EV sector was successful mainly because of government support[27:48] The US is doing it wrong when it comes to supporting its own auto industry[30:57] IShowSpeed[36:23] A great book by Zhou Bo, a former Senior Colonel of the PLA, making a case for peace and for China to get rid of the mindset of victimhood. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.baiguan.news/subscribe

Hi everyone, welcome to another collaboration episode between Pekingnology and Baiguan. Quick notice: we heard some complaints about the audio quality of our episodes recently, and so we have made special efforts to improve the experience this time. We hope you enjoy it better! In this episode, you will hear about:[01:32] Zichen Wang’s observations during his study at Princeton[04:40] The ongoing controversy regarding CK Hutchison’s Panama ports sale [20:16] New top-level policy on boosting domestic demand[27:03] China Development Forum[29:16] Will Xi and Trump meet soon? This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.baiguan.news/subscribe

Timeline[00:56] Two Sessions[03:31] Birth subsidies[06:33] 1-trillion-yuan state VC fund[11:33] China’s new tariff on US agriculture[17:32] Trump’s impact on stock market confidence[19:47] Significance of TSMC’s $100b investment in the US And a small announcement here. I have started a new newsletter called Paid Sub, where I will discuss China’s market intelligence, Data-as-a-Service, professional knowledge and paid content industry in China - basically the industry I work for and have dedicated my life to. It will be an interesting industry publication if you are also working in our industry.In the first article just published today, I discussed the main difference between China and the West in our industry: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.baiguan.news/subscribe

Timeline[01:14] The symposium with private entrepreneurs[15:49] Market rallies in Hong Kong and China ADRs[21:29] New White House memo on restricting Chinese investors into the US[27:22] China’s stance on Ukraine This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.baiguan.news/subscribe