BM Talks: Ben Ashby speaks

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Rachel Ziemba, founder of Ziemba Insights. She is an expert in sanctions and trade policy with a focus on oil markets in the Middle East. Her substack has the ever-more relevant name of "Weaponized Economy".     We asked: What happens to the oil price given the Iran/Israel conflict?What will be the response of the GCC countries and China?How will Trump's trade policies affect GDP? Can sanctions ever really work? Would China dump US Treasuries? Will Russia come back into the fold? Is Trump the strongest strongman?

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Dr Nigel Bowles, who taught American politics and history at Oxford and Edinburgh universities, along with authoring many books such as "Government and Politics of the United States".   We asked: Does the US Constitution prevent an authoritarian President?Can the US President remove the Federal Reserve Chair? Are tariffs the exclusive power of the executive branch?Is Trump a genuine threat to the rule of law?Are Americans more polarised than at any time in history?

We talk to Meyrick Chapman, Principal and Founder of Hedge Analytics Ltd, about: How should we look at the US trade balance?What was the "glitch" in The Matrix on Liberation Day?What does the Moody's downgrade mean for US debt?Where could systemic risk emerge?Why does the market respond dramatically to known unknowns?

We asked Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe:What next for the S&P500?What is the Eurodollars market and why does it matter?Is Trump trying to accelerate a long term rebalancing of the global economy?Where could systemic risk emerge?What countries are vulnerable in a new era for foreign policy?

Rob Ford, Professor of Politics at Manchester University and co-author of Brexitland, talks to us about:- What will happen in the 3 by-elections- What this means for the UK General Election- The new division between voters- Why Nigel Farage isn't done yet- The outlook for UK politics

This is an episode from our archives. We spoke to Kweku Adoboli, the former UBS trader who went to prison for rogue trading that was uncovered in 2011. In the summer of 2018, having served his time, he spoke to us about the mechanics of marketing making and prop trading in ETFs and other Delta One products. He explained how he used proxies for volatility to hedge positions and how this can lead to hidden leverage within the financial system. He has a unique perspective of trading through the financial crisis that he is now free to discuss as someone outside of the system. 

We asked Hugh: What assets does he want to own this year ?What does he think about inflation?What was his favourite trading day? Which policymaker is getting it right? He shares how he was once under attack by Robert Mugabe as well as waxing biblical from his Caribbean island. 

We asked: Will China invade Taiwan?Can China meet its growth target?What does China think of Liz Truss?What is Xi Jinping's ideology?What are China's demographic challenges?And finally... what is the best programme on Chinese TV?

We asked: Will there be a UK recession this year?Will Working From Home solve the Productivity Puzzle?Is Rishi Sunak doing a good job?Who is his favourite UK Chancellor? How has business journalism changed?And of course... what's his favourite joke?

We asked: Is Gold still an inflation hedge?When is Gold a safe haven?How does Gold fit into a portfolio?How does Gold compare to Crypto? How liquid is the Gold marketHave central bank holdings of Gold changed?