Markets Weekly podcast (11 August 2025): Sectoral tariffs and stagflation

As US non-farm payrolls came in weaker than expected in August, should investors be concerned about a slowdown in the US economy? In this week’s podcast, Lukas Gehrig, Head of Quant Macro and Thematic Strategy, joins Julien Lafargue to discuss the US labour market, the outlook for inflation, and what the Federal Reserve may do next.

As US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell takes a more dovish stance, should investors expect a US rate cut in September? In this week’s podcast, Michel Vernier, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, joins Julien Lafargue to discuss the recent Jackson Hole symposium, Fed independence, and US and UK interest rate expectations.

In our latest podcast, Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, reflects on key themes moving financial markets, from sector-specific tariffs to growing concerns over stagflation risk. He also discusses the Bank of England’s latest rate-setting meeting, and the implications for future interest rate decisions.

Earnings season is nearly over – so what stood out? In this week’s episode, Dorothée Deck, Head of Cross Asset Strategy, joins Chief Market Strategist Julien Lafargue to explore where expectations were beaten – particularly in US tech and European banks – and how markets have responded. Plus, find out what it could all mean for investors.

In this week’s podcast, Ivelin Stankov delves into the world of cryptocurrencies exploring the investor implications of growing demand for stablecoins, especially on US Treasuries. Host Julien Lafargue also shares his insights on the recent US trade agreements with Europe and Japan, as well as the strong start to the corporate earnings season.

What have the first six months of the year taught us about investor psychology? In this week’s podcast, Alex Joshi, Head of Behavioural Finance, joins Julien Lafargue to discuss the benefits of contrarian thinking, and the importance of taking a break from newsflow for long-term investors.

As earnings season begins to ramp up, investors will be hoping to get some valuable insight into how companies are navigating higher tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. In this week’s podcast, Dorothée Deck, Head of Cross Asset Strategy, joins Julien Lafargue to consider what makes this particular earnings season so important, how investors might position their portfolios and much more besides.

The first half of the year has been volatile in currency markets, driven by President Trump’s tariff policy and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. In the US, the impact of tariffs on growth has caused the US dollar to weaken against the euro, sterling and the Swiss franc. In this week’s podcast, Bhaskar Gupta, Head of FX Distribution in the UK, joins Julien Lafargue to discuss what investors could expect from currency markets for the rest of the year.

Despite AI breakthroughs becoming more incremental, AI development and investment remain strong. While many models may perform well in narrow tasks, they can still struggle with practical reliability, which might limit commercial adoption in the near term. In this week’s podcast, Rob Smith, Data Scientist, joins Julien Lafargue to discuss the latest developments in this evolving technology.

As periods of elevated volatility in bond markets remain likely in the second half of the year, we explore how investors might navigate the ongoing uncertainty. Michel Vernier, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, and Aleks Devic, Fixed Income Specialist, join Julien Lafargue to discuss the expected future path of US and UK interest rates, the potential impact of the Middle East conflict, and where value may lie in the credit market.