#20 - 2023 Wrap-Up & Looking Ahead to 2024

David Andolfatto (@dandolfa) Professor & Economics Department Chair at the University of Miami, joins Adam, Douglas, and Ryan to discuss:David's journey from construction to academia and the Federal Reserve.His focus on monetary theory and views on the essence of money.How MMT compares and contrasts with traditional economic theories.David's take on money's role in resource allocation and price setting.Historical inflation trends and major economic shifts, like the 1970s oil crises.Analysis of how changing interest rates can affect the economy.The difference between short-term rate changes and long-term interest rate impacts.Andolfatto's views on government responses to high interest rates and their effects.Economic complexity and the need for careful policy evaluation.David Andolfatto received his Ph.D. in economics in 1994 from the University of Western Ontario, London, Canada. A native of Vancouver, British Columbia, he began his academic career in Canada as a professor of economics. In 2009, he was awarded the Bank of Canada Fellowship Award for his contributions in the theory of money, banking, and monetary policy. In that same year, David left Canada to become Vice President, and then Senior Vice President, in the research division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, where he served as a senior policy advisor for James Bullard, CEO and president of the Bank. He left the Fed in 2022 to become Chair of the Economics Department at the University of Miami Patti and Allan Herbert Business School.AppliedMMT.comAppliedMMT on TwitterDouglas (@MMTmacrotrader) on TwitterDisclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any associated employers or organizations. Listeners should consider their financial circumstances and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions

In this episode, Brett Scott joins Adam, Doug, and Ryan to discuss: Vertical and horizontal dimensions of money  Crypto capturing attention through an asset-only view of money that people commonly holdCrypto ignoring double-entry accounting and liability side of money by treating units as assets aloneBitcoin's reliance on energy-intensive mining and whether it can truly function as a reliable inflation hedgeBitcoin promoters shifting narratives between Bitcoin being an asset, a monetary system, and a counter-tradeInflation scaremongering as a distraction from real issues like wage stagnation and  wealth distributionConservative monetary ideology benefitting creditors by constraining the political imagination of moneyMMT challenges to traditional assumptions by focusing on resources rather than financial constraintsInterdependence as the starting point for economic analysis rather than independent actors in isolated marketsFor more from Brett, visit his Substack: Altered States of Monetary ConsciousnessAppliedMMT.comAppliedMMT on TwitterDouglas (@MMTmacrotrader) on TwitterDisclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any associated employers or organizations. Listeners should consider their financial circumstances and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions

In this episode, Brett Scott joins Adam, Doug, and Ryan to discuss: Brett's intellectual journey with MMT and how he was exposed to the ideas through different communities and eventsChallenges of separating fact from conspiracy theories Brett's perspective on tensions between using existing monetary systems and building alternative currenciesDiscussion of libertarian and anarcho-capitalist views in early crypto and the concept of "vulgar libertarianism"Evolution of understanding of limitations of blockchain and smart contract technologySkepticism towards claims of decentralization and feasibility of decentralized systemsBrett's arguments for maintaining balances of power in the monetary system through preserving cashImplications of moving to a cashless society in terms of power, data control, and corporate manipulationPotential for central bank digital currencies to expand access to reserves or bypass banking sectorDebate around proposals to issue CBDCs and commercial bank lobbying effortsRohan Gray's E-Cash proposal as a progressive vision for digital cash with privacy protectionsFor more from Brett, visit his Substack: Altered States of Monetary ConsciousnessAppliedMMT.comAppliedMMT on TwitterDouglas (@MMTmacrotrader) on TwitterDisclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any associated employers or organizations. Listeners should consider their financial circumstances and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions

In this episode, Derek McDaniel (@ratedisparity) joins Adam, Derek, and Ryan to discuss: Derek's Background: Transition from academics in mathematics and computer science to exploring economics and MMT.Journey into MMT: Early exposure to Austrian economics, online debates, and realization about the national debt.Current Stance on MMT: Emphasis on separating MMT into independent propositions like endogenous money, government finance, and price anchoring.Discussion on Endogenous Money: Explanation of endogenous money as creation of transaction mediums and the role of credit.Concept of Eurodollars: Exploration of Eurodollars and their impact on the economy.Rate Disparity in the Economy: Analysis of the wide range of wages and the implications of interest rates on inflation and economic cycles.Adaptive Equilibrium and Ecological Cycles: Connection between ecological cycles and economic cycles.Central Bank Policies and Econometrics: Challenges of interpreting central bank policies and skepticism about statistical models in economics.Interpreting Inflation Data: Discussion on the complexities of interpreting inflation data and economic policies.Turkey's Economic Situation: Brief discussion on Turkey's economy, neo-Fisherism, and the challenges in economic data interpretation.Public Understanding of MMT: Insights into the public's perception of MMT and the role of public finance.Find more from Derek on Twitter and his website, ratedisparity.com.AppliedMMT.comAppliedMMT on TwitterDouglas (@MMTmacrotrader) on TwitterDisclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any associated employers or organizations. Listeners should consider their financial circumstances and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions

In this episode, Adam, Ryan, and Doug interview Maren Poitras, creator of "Finding the Money", the documentary film about MMT. They discuss:Maren's backgroundMaren's inspiration for creating the filmThe film's development processReception to early screeningsMaren's observations regarding mainstream economics vs. heterodox economicsChallenges in explaining MMT via filmFuture plans for the filmFor more information and updates on the film, visit findingmoneyfilm.com.Buy tickets to the Finding the Money film tour in Australia here: https://modernmoneylab.org.au/events/film-tour/AppliedMMT.comAppliedMMT on TwitterDouglas (@MMTmacrotrader) on TwitterDisclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any associated employers or organizations. Listeners should consider their financial circumstances and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions

Adam, Doug, and Ryan wrap up 2023, discussing their learnings, surprises, and expectations for 2024:The strong GDP growth and low unemployment in 2023, noting how rate hikes seemed to stimulate the economy, contrary to popular belief.Higher government spending and lower inflation in 2023 The importance of understanding fiscal policy's impact on the macroeconomy while other factors like bank credit and money supply are secondary.The relationship between fiscal spending, bank credit, and economic trends, noting the trend of fiscal dominance in 2023.Surprise at the rapid fall in inflation and the decline in oil prices, which wasn't anticipated.How bank credit and loans behaved in 2023, with a focus on the difference between bank credit contraction and expansion in loans and leases.Potential risks and outcomes if the Fed decides to cut rates in 2024Predictions for 2024AppliedMMT.comAppliedMMT on TwitterDouglas (@MMTmacrotrader) on TwitterDisclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any associated employers or organizations. Listeners should consider their financial circumstances and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions

In this episode, Ritik Goyal joins Adam, Ryan, and Douglas to discuss:Ritik's journey from working at Bridgewater to co-founding "The Monetary Frontier" on SubstackHow Ritik was drawn to MMT as a framework that accurately describes economic flows and policy impacts, especially in the context of austerity politics.Ritik's nuanced view on MMT, particularly questioning the idea of a zero neutral interest rate and its effect on the availability of safe assets like treasuries.The historical relationship between interest rates, inflation, and the Federal Reserve's role, suggesting that the Fed's influence is more psychological than direct.The primary role of fiscal policy over monetary policy in economic outcomes, challenging conventional views on the Fed's effectiveness.Analysis of current market trends, the potential impact of Fed rate cuts, and the risks of a self-reinforcing economic slowdown.The effectiveness of asset price inflation as a stimulus for the broader economy, highlighting the importance of safe assets in economic stability.The importance of understanding economic mechanics and the role of MMT in shaping economic discourse, emphasizing the need for a more nuanced understanding of fiscal and monetary interactions."The Fed Does Not Exist" by Ritik GoyalAppliedMMT.comAppliedMMT on TwitterDouglas (@MMTmacrotrader) on TwitterDisclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any associated employers or organizations. Listeners should consider their financial circumstances and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions

In this episode, Douglas of MMT Macro Trader joins Adam and Ryan discuss:Big announcement - the future of AppliedMMT & MMT Macro Trader!4.9% Q3 GDP printIs Fintwit connecting the dots on the interest income channel?What drove GDP growth in 2023?The relationship between interest rates and the economyPotential systemic risks in the economy todayThe “failed treasury auction” on November 9Powell’s recent comments – has the Fed changed its thinking?AppliedMMT.comAppliedMMT on TwitterDouglas (@MMTmacrotrader) on TwitterDisclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any associated employers or organizations. Listeners should consider their financial circumstances and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions

In this episode, Charles Hayden joins Ryan to discuss:Warren Mosler’s thesis that the Fed has interest rate policy backwardsMMT academics countering mainstream economistsMainstream economists thinking unemployment is necessary to reduce inflationSaudi oil prices & their impact on inflationNegative GDP prints in 2022 & recession fearsBank credit increasing despite rate hikesFed collateral rules rather than rate hikes causing regional bank failuresMarc Goldwein’s hypocrisy on deficits & rate hikesThe government as the source of the price levelVolcker-era inflation & policy responseDeregulation of energy under Jimmy Carter and its impact on inflationMosler’s “term structure of prices”CPI as a look backwards, not into the futureThe policy rate as the forward inflation rateMMT & electoral politicsWarren Mosler as this generation's KeynesMosler's car companyThe real looming recession threatCharles' investment strategyCharles' conversation with Larry SummersThe state of MMT activismLinksCharles on Twitter (@CarlitosMMT)Mosler/Murphy debate (organized by Charles)MMT, Finance, and Interest Rate PolicyAppliedMMT.comAppliedMMT on TwitterDouglas (@MMTmacrotrader) on TwitterDisclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any associated employers or organizations. Listeners should consider their financial circumstances and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions

In this episode, Adam and Ryan discuss:Shout out to Nick Gomez of ANG Traders (@ANGTraders)Fears of market liquidity drain during TGA refill in late May/early JuneThe mechanics of the TGA refillThe Fed's reverse repo facilityMMT being blamed for inflationRandy Wray and Yeva Nersisyan's policy recommendations at the beginning of the pandemicMMT's opposition to UBIAre rate hikes keeping companies alive?Addressing the notion that MMT doesn't make predictionsOngoing effects of rate hikes on the economyOutlook on the economy going forwardAppliedMMT.comAppliedMMT on TwitterDouglas (@MMTmacrotrader) on TwitterDisclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any associated employers or organizations. Listeners should consider their financial circumstances and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions