Time to Talk Trade

Space has long been colored by divides between the “haves” who possess the economic and technological wherewithal to make it to orbit and beyond, and the “have-nots” who lack these capabilities. This divide in turn has historically played out between the Global North and the Global South, with the latter grouping feeling as if they have been excluded from sharing in the benefits of space exploration. However, this is only part of the picture. As space becomes both increasingly critical and accessible, there is a need for a more nuanced understanding of how a broader set of global players view the issues surrounding these capabilities. In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Laura Delgado López, a Visiting Fellow with the CSIS Americas Program. Together, they discuss the evolving and divergent space policies that can be found throughout Latin America. They also unpack her new report Orbital Dynamics: The Domestic and Foreign Policy Forces Shaping Latin American Engagement in Space and some of the key findings from this yearlong investigation into regional perspectives on space policy and international engagement.

Firearms trafficking is fueling violence across the hemisphere by providing criminal groups the arms and means necessary to violently expand their businesses, threaten citizens, and even challenge government forces. While the United States is by far the largest single supplier of firearms to Latin America and the Caribbean, a plethora of other sources, from unsecured military and police stockpiles, to artisanal and 3D-printed weapons, to alternative suppliers in Turkey and Europe, all contribute to this challenge. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Andrei Serbin Pont, Executive Director of the Economic and Social Studies Regional Coordinator (CRIES-LAC). Together, they discussed shifting trends in firearms trafficking patterns, the synergies that exist between the illegal gun and drug trades, and how the United States and better partner with its regional allies to curb illicit arms. They also discuss Andrei's work on the Small Arms-Light Weapons Dashboard project, and the ways in which emerging technologies like artificial intelligence are revolutionizing open-source intelligence work on studying organized crime.

Almost every corner of the Western Hemisphere has been touched by the monumental challenge of irregular migration. However, addressing the multifaceted and context-specific manifestations of irregular migration is no small feat. An effective response to the migratory movements we are observing therefore hinges on cooperation with partners in the region at all levels, on-the-ground knowledge, and close cooperation with and within the U.S. government. In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Michael Camilleri, Acting Assistant Administrator of USAID’s Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean. Together, they discuss the origins, importance, and implementation of the U.S. strategy for addressing the root causes of migration in Central America. They also delved into USAID's work to help confront emerging challenges such as climate change, support integration of migrants within the region, and strengthen partnerships with governments and civil societies.

The global energy transition will require a simultaneous mining revolution. However, reaching the levels of production needed to achieve net zero goals is no small feat, while China’s dominance in the midstream of critical minerals supply chains presents risks to both the United States and minerals producers in the Western Hemisphere alike. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Dr. Gustavo Lagos Cruz-Coke, Professor of Engineering and Mines at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile. Together, they unpack the challenges and opportunities facing the mining industry in Latin America and the view from Chile towards China's expansion in this strategic sector. They also discuss the role of U.S. efforts to reorient mineral supply chains through the Inflation Reduction Act and Minerals Security Partnership, and why such policies have yet to gain significant traction in the region.

On June 2, nearly 60 million people cast their votes for the next president of Mexico, making it the largest election in Mexico’s history. However, the race was also marred by electoral violence, with more than three dozen candidates or prospective candidates murdered over the electoral season. Intimidation, coercion, and threats to family members further compelled many prospective candidates to withdraw from the race, illustrating the corrosive impact of violence and impunity for democratic institutions. In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Chris Dalby, Director of World of Crime and author of the new book CJNG – A Quick Guide to Mexico’s Deadliest Cartel. Together, they discuss Mexico's evolving criminal landscape, the causes and consequences of electoral violence in Mexico, and what to expect from the new Sheinbaum administration's security policy. They also delve into the ways the United States and Mexico can reset security cooperation which has deteriorated in recent years.

This episode of 35 West originally aired on December 20, 2023. Now, just days away from the election, many of topics discussed have only grown in relevance over the course of the official campaign season. Mexico's general election on June 2 of 2024 promises to be a seminal moment for Mexican politics and society on a number of fronts, in particular, the race has made headlines as a contest between two women, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum on one hand, and Senator Xóchitl Gálvez on the other, promising to herald Mexico’s first female president. But the race is also a test of the staying power of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Morena Party, and whether its breakout success in 2018 can be translated into sustained influence over Mexican politics. In this special episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Alma Caballero, Northern Latin America Managing Director at McLarty Associates. Together, they discuss the policy positions of the frontrunners, the challenges that will face either a Gálvez or a Sheinbaum government, and the influence President López Obrador is likely to wield over Mexico's political environment even after departing office. They also delve into questions of security, and the threat organized crime may pose to the electoral process next year.

In 2023, U.S. trade with Mexico grew to nearly $800 billion, leading Mexico to surpass both Canada and China as the United States’ number one trading partner. While U.S.-Mexico trade has long been a pillar of North American economic competitiveness, Washington’s efforts to move trade away from China in favor of nearshoring and friendshoring in the Western Hemisphere, coupled with the advantages of a modernized trade agreement in the form of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has underpinned this increase in bilateral trade and investment. At the same time, Chinese investment in Mexico has skyrocketed, with estimates finding that in 2022 Chinese foreign direct investment in Mexico was more than double that of 2018.  In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Kenneth Smith Ramos, Chief Trade Negotiator for Mexico from 2017 to 2018 and one of the architects of USMCA. Together, they discuss the evolution of USMCA since its entry into force in 2020, with a focus on the recent surge of Chinese invesment in Mexico, understanding the nature of this investment, as well as the potential challenges it may present. They also discuss the upcoming 2026 Joint Review of the agreement, and what can be done by all three countries to lay the groundwork for a more constructive session.

On Sunday, May 5, Panamanians will cast their votes to determine the next president, as well as all members of the National Assembly. With a crowded field of candidates vying for the presidency, and only a single round to determine the victor, it promises to be a divided field. The elections are also taking place within a deeply polarized context, as Panama has been rocked by mass protests against the Cobre Panama Mining project, the country grapples with both a worsening water crisis, and the endemic challenge of corruption continues to loom large. In this special episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Annette Planells, a civil society leader and anticorruption activist, and Executive President of the newspaper La Prensa. Together, they discuss the election's implications for Panama's ongoing fight against corruption, especially in light of the disqualification of ex-president and former frontrunner Ricardo Martinelli following his conviction on bribery charges. They also reflect on how the various candidates will navigate some of the most salient questions in Panamanian politics today, including water insecurity, infrastructure, as well as Panama's relations with both China and the United States.

Looking across the hemisphere today, crime and insecurity appears on the march, with transnational criminal groups ascendant from Mexico to the Caribbean and southern cone. In light of this, it is important to reflect upon the history of U.S.-LAC security cooperation, where we have seen two major, multi-year security initiatives launched and concluded in the past 25 years, Plan Colombia, and the Mérida Initiative.   In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Dr. Paul Angelo, Director of the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at National Defense University. Together, they discuss his new book From Peril to Partnership: US Security Assistance and the Bid to Stabilize Colombia and Mexico. They trace the divergent origins and outcomes of both Plan Colombia and the Mérida Initiative, as well as the current security challenges facing the hemisphere.

Semiconductors form the building blocks of modern digital life. Chips govern everything from missile guidance systems to the headlights in your car, and the fight for the cutting edge of this technology appears to be entering a new phase. The United States, in partnership with allies like Japan and the Netherlands, has sought to cut off China’s access to advanced chip designs and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. In response, China has announced a raft of export controls on minerals needed to produce modern chips, leveraging its dominance in the supply chain for mining and refining key minerals. In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Dr. Chris Miller, Associate Professor with the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and author of Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology. Together, they analyze the challenges and choke points in the semiconductor supply chain, including the need to identify and certify alternative suppliers, as well as the role that countries in the Western Hemisphere can play in breaking China's monopoly over the raw material inputs for semiconductors. They also unpack the challenges to getting more mining, refining, and processing online, and how the United States can better partner with allies to shore up this sector of the supply chain.