The Aftermath of Canada’s Elections

In the past month or so, President Nayib Bukele’s government has sharply intensified its repression of civil society and independent voices in El Salvador.  Journalists have been forced into exile, civil society organizations are being weakened by a new Foreign Agents Law, and former officials, activists, and NGO workers are being jailed on dubious charges. These developments mark a new phase in Bukele’s crackdown—one that relies not only on emergency powers but increasingly on legal and financial tools to silence dissent.  In this episode, Juliana Rubio sits down with Leonor Arteaga Rubio, Program Director at the Due Process of Law Foundation. Together, they discuss what recent arrests and crackdowns in El Salvador mean for the remaining checks on government power. They also explore how civil society has adapted in order to continue raising alarms about corruption and abuse of power.

As a NATO and NORAD member, Canada plays a crucial role in North American continental defense. With the United States now pursuing an expanded continental missile defense posture dubbed the Golden Dome, the Canada-U.S. relationship may be entering a new phase. While the Golden Dome could prove beneficial in advancing Canada’s security strategy, it remains unclear what Canada’s involvement would actually look like, how much protection it would receive under the Golden Dome, and to what extent President Trump’s annexation rhetoric will undermine the Canadian public’s willingness to entertain the missile defense initiative. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Phillippe Lagassé, Associate Professor with the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University. Together they discuss Canada's historical position on continental missile defense, changes to the threat landscape faced by Canada, and how the government of Prime Minister Mark Carney is approaching defense modernization priorities. They also discuss the effect of ongoing U.S.-Canada tensions on the likelihood that Canada will move forward with participation in the Golden Dome.

With the Indo-Pacific an increasingly volatile region, successive U.S. administrations have sought to shift semiconductor manufacturing back to the Western Hemisphere in general and United States in particular. However, a push to shift the balance of semiconductor production away from Asia also creates opportunities for Mexico, which could be well-positioned to complement the United States’ industrial policy as well as grow its own microelectronics industry. In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Jesús Silva Elizalde, Associate Director of ITSI Program Operations at Arizona State University and a Research Fellow with the U.S.-Mexico Foundation. Together, they discuss the state of U.S.-Mexico semiconductor cooperation, and Mexico's strategy to further develop its chips industry. They also unpack the ways in which tensions between the two countries risk undermining the potential for increased semiconductor supply chain security, and what the Sheinbaum and Trump administrations can do moving forward.

Prime Minister Mark Carney led the Liberal Party to a narrow victory in Canada’s pivotal election in April 28. Running a campaign centered on uniting Canadians against U.S. President Trump’s annexation threats and punitive tariffs, Mr. Carney orchestrated a remarkable political comeback for the Liberals, who had been expected to suffer a landslide defeat until a few months earlier. Despite the win, Mr. Carney now faces the steep challenge of governing with a minority. His ability to deliver on domestic issues will shape his legacy as much as his handling of relations with Washington. Balancing these priorities will not be an easy task, and Prime Minister Carney has no time to waste. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Andrew Potter, author and associate professor at the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University. Together, they discuss the factors that shaped the election, and the challenges confronting Prime Minister Carney, and Canada as a whole. They also discuss the future of the Canadian Conservative Party under the continued leadership of Pierre Poilievre.

President Trump’s return to the White House has brought a radical shift in U.S.-Mexico ties, reshaping relations between the two neighbors. Within his first 100 days in office, the U.S. President declared a “national emergency” at the southern border, directed U.S. troops to help seal it, designated several Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, and threatened to impose tariffs on Mexican imports unless tougher action is taken to curb the flow of fentanyl and migrants. While Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has so far proven capable of navigating President Trump’s hardline negotiation style, the road ahead for U.S-Mexico security cooperation remains uncertain. In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, Head of the North American Observatory at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime. Together, they discuss the security challenges faced by Mexico, as well as the stresses and opportunities presented by the second Trump administration for U.S.-Mexico cooperation. They also delve into the differences in President Sheinbaum's security policy and where there may be signs of a shifting approach from her predecessor.

On March 23, newly minted Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called snap elections for April 28, kicking off a 37-day sprint campaign to determine Canada’s future at a critical moment. The race puts incumbent Prime Minister Carney—who assumed leadership of the Liberal Party following Justin Trudeau’s resignation as prime minister—, head-to-head with Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party. Regardless of who comes out on top, the next leader of Canada will inherit a tense relationship with the United States, public pressure at home to revive Canada's economy, and an increasingly fraught global security environment that tests Canada’s sovereignty. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Paul Wells, a veteran journalist and author on Canadian politics and public affairs. Together, they discuss the key issues framing this election, the reasons for the Liberal Party's surge in the polls, and how the next Canadian leader will approach an increasingly fraught relationship with the United States.

On February 9th, Ecuadorians headed to the polls for the first round of presidential elections. While there was little surprise about who the two frontrunners would be, the results turned out to be much tighter than many polls had predicted. Incumbent President Daniel Noboa led with 44.17 percent, just ahead of Luisa González of the Revolución Ciudadana party who garnered 44 percent. The narrow margin revealed the nation’s deep polarization, setting the stage for a second electoral round on April 13 that promises to be a close showdown. In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Will Freeman, Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Together, they discussed the key challenges Ecuador faces in the security and economic space that have defined the race. How both candidates are seeking to appeal to undecided voters, and what the outcome will mean for U.S.-Ecuador relations at a fraught moment in global politics.

Climate change and the reduction in sea ice is opening new shipping routes, and making it easier to tap the arctic’s natural resource wealth, especially critical minerals. For Canada, a country where the arctic represents 40 percent of its territory and 75 percent of its coastline, the changing arctic presents new challenges and opportunities. However, Canada’s sovereignty over its vast arctic territory is exercised by only a very small military presence on land and occasionally at sea. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Vincent Rigby, senior adviser with the CSIS Americas Program and professor at the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University. Together, they discuss Canada's current force posture in the arctic and priorities for bolstering Canadian sovereignty there. They also examine current U.S.-Canada tensions, and how Ottawa can manage these without sacrificing the need for cooperation and interoperability with the United States to tackle threats in and through the arctic.

As one of his first actions in office, U.S. president Donald Trump ordered a 90-day freeze on foreign assistance pending review for alignment with U.S. foreign policy goals. Subsequent moves by the administration, including the aggressive downsizing and de facto elimination of the U.S. Agency for International Development have roiled Washington and resulted in far-reaching implications. Within the Western Hemisphere, the Andean region, particularly Colombia, stands to be one of the areas most impacted by these funding freezes. In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Elizabeth Dickinson, Senior Analyst for the Andes at Crisis Group. Together, they discuss how the cutoff of U.S. assistance is impacting security and counter-narcotics efforts in Colombia. They also explore the openings that the end of U.S. assistance creates for other powers to enter the security assistance space, particularly the European Union and China.

Gunfire on Haitian airports and an assault on the largest public hospital show that even the country’s critical infrastructure is not immune to gang violence. Massacres in November and December, claiming over 350 lives, prompted many aid organizations to pull up stakes. While the announcement of elections scheduled for mid-November this year sparked a glimmer of hope, past postponements, the deepening security crisis and the suspension of U.S. assistance to the Multinational Security Support Mission, cast doubts on whether they will ever materialize. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Georges Fauriol, Senior Associate with the CSIS Americas Program and fellow with the Caribbean Policy Consortium. Together, they discuss recent political developments with the Haitian provisional government, and the future of the embattled MSS force. They also explore how the Trump administration will approach Haiti policy and the question of international security assistance.