Switzerland with Tom Switzer

Did the war with Iran cost Donald Trump and the Republicans the midterm elections? Vice-President JD Vance certainly thinks so, arguing that the conflict was the principal reason for the Republican defeat and that bringing it to an end is now a political necessity. But is he right? Or were the Republicans undone principally by domestic concerns -- the cost of living, corruption, tariffs and immigration -- that had been eroding Trump’s popularity well before the war began? And has Vance, as much of the western mainstream media suggests, inadvertently strengthened Tehran’s negotiating hand by signalling that Washington lacks the political will to sustain the pressure? With Democrats now controlling both chambers of Congress, what happens next? Will they use their newfound congressional power to restrict funding for American military operations, force an end to the naval blockade of Iranian ports and press for a diplomatic settlement, irrespective of the terms? Or would abandoning the blockade amount to a strategic victory for the Iranian regime, with potentially far-reaching consequences for freedom of navigation and American credibility? And what do the election results mean for America’s relationship with Israel? With Trump himself reportedly contemplating a phased reduction in American military assistance, are we witnessing the beginnings of a fundamental reassessment of the US-Israel alliance? Trita Parsi is vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington. Joshua Landis is professor of Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

Americans have delivered a stinging rebuke to Republicans in Congress. Democrats have swept to substantial gains across the country, securing a commanding majority in the House of Representatives and easily wresting control of the Senate from Republicans. The breadth of the swing has been striking, extending even into traditionally conservative states such as Texas, South Carolina and Kansas, which had not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. What accounts for Donald Trump’s electoral humiliation? Why have Republicans performed so abysmally? To what extent is the Iran war – and Trump’s decision to launch it – responsible for the scale of the defeat? Or is this election primarily a verdict on the cost of living, with household economic pressures exacerbated not only by the war but also by the tariffs Trump has imposed on America’s trading partners over the past two years? Henry Olsen is one of America’s leading experts on electoral and political affairs. He has written for The Washington Post and worked at the American Enterprise Institute.

In the aftermath of the Israeli and U.S. midterm elections, will Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu launch another military campaign against Iran? What would a renewed war mean for the Persian Gulf?  Vice-President JD Vance has now written directly to a senior Iranian security official and former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, proposing a resumption of comprehensive peace negotiations. How seriously should Tehran take this diplomatic initiative? Is this an indication of a genuine division within the Trump administration between those who want a diplomatic settlement and those who favour further military escalation?  John Mearsheimer is professor of political science at the University of Chicago. Trita Paris is vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

In the aftermath of the Israeli and U.S. midterm elections, will Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu launch another military campaign against Iran? And what would a renewed war mean for the Middle East? Washington and Jerusalem have underestimated Iran’s capacity to retaliate, overestimated the effectiveness of air power and pursued a strategy that risks turning a military campaign into a prolonged regional conflict. Could another round of strikes achieve what the first failed to accomplish? Or would it deepen the strategic predicament facing both countries? With likely big Republican setbacks in the midterms, what are the wider consequences of Donald Trump’s presidency: the erosion of American soft power, questions about corruption and the relationship between private interests and public office, and the longer-term implications for American power? Finally, what happens to Israel’s relationship with the United States after Trump and Netanyahu leave the political stage? Could Israel sustain its present regional strategy without Washington’s military and diplomatic backing? Patrick Cockburn has spent decades reporting from the Middle East. He is Middle East correspondent and columnist with the I newspaper in the UK and author of War in the Age of Trump.  Join Tom's Exclusive Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/cff5e11f69a3/switzerland-with-tom-switzer Read Tom's Substack: https://substack.com/@tomswitzershow Tom Switzer is a journalist and broadcaster who has been a prolific commentator on politics and international affairs. His writing and commentary have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times (international), The Australian, and across ABC and News24 (formerly Sky News), where he has been a regular presenter and panellist. For 30 years, since 1995, he has worked at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, the Australian Financial Review, The Australian, the London-based Spectator magazine, and the Sydney-based Centre for Independent Studies, which he headed from 2017 to 2025. He is the host of Switzerland, a long-form interview series exploring global politics, modern history, and the ideas shaping the world.

The New York Times on Sunday, October 25, reports that Washington and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes against Iran, potentially targeting its energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and missile capabilities. The prospect of further military action comes as the American naval blockade, sanctions and the damage from previous fighting intensify pressure on Iran’s economy, while Tehran warns that any new attack would provoke a wider retaliation.  This raises a central strategic question: if the blockade is steadily weakening Iran by restricting its oil exports and draining its revenues, does Washington have an incentive to wait and allow economic pressure to run its course — or might the prospect of a weakened but still defiant regime instead encourage Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu to strike again?  Meanwhile, America appears to be entering a new era of political violence. Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago and one of the leading scholars of political violence, argues that the danger lies not simply in the actions of extremists, but in the growing acceptance of violence among sections of the wider public. He calls this phenomenon “violent populism”, fuelled by deepening partisan divisions, racial anxieties and the capacity of social media to amplify hostility and confer legitimacy on political violence. With the November midterm elections approaching, Pape warns that a disputed result could trigger a prolonged crisis of political legitimacy, potentially escalating into sustained violence. How seriously should Americans take these warnings?  What role does Donald Trump play in this increasingly volatile political climate, and how much of the crisis reflects deeper structural changes in American society? We explore the evidence behind Pape’s analysis, the risks facing American democracy and whether political leaders and institutions can prevent an already polarised country from descending further into violence. Robert Pape is professor of political science at the University of Chicago and author of Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism.

She spent 804 days in an Iranian prison. Now Kylie Moore-Gilbert is receiving death threats again, this time from supporters of the man many hope will replace the regime. She tells Tom Switzer why the Shah’s son is no messiah, why Trump botched the chance for regime change, and who is most likely to rule Iran if the Islamic Republic falls. After writing a column in The Age questioning Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last Shah, Kylie received death threats, rape threats and threats against her family. She argues that the movement around him has become a cult of personality that tolerates no criticism, borrows from Trump’s playbook with “Make Iran Great Again”, and attacks anyone who asks hard questions. Is Pahlavi really a democrat, or is he following his father’s playbook? Kylie explains why his transition plan worries her, why many in the diaspora romanticise the Shah’s Iran, and why the dissidents who have risked prison and death inside Iran, such as Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi, Nasrin Sotoudeh and Toomaj Salehi, deserve far greater recognition. Plus, has military intervention made the struggle for Iranian freedom more difficult? Did Trump botch the chance for regime change? If the Islamic Republic falls, who will actually rule Iran? And is Mojtaba Khamenei even alive? Chapters 00:00 Introduction 01:46 What 804 days in prison taught her about the regime 04:08 Death threats and a radicalised diaspora 06:39 Reza Pahlavi’s cult of personality 10:34 Like father, like son? 13:18 The dissidents inside Iran 16:54 Is the diaspora romanticising the Shah? 22:31 Did Trump botch regime change? 27:09 What Iranian dissidents say about America 32:16 Has the war fuelled Iranian nationalism? 37:01 Who will rule Iran next? 40:28 Is Mojtaba Khamenei even alive? About the guest Kylie Moore-Gilbert is a Melbourne-based academic in Middle East studies. She was held in an Iranian prison for 804 days, between 2018 and 2020, on unsubstantiated espionage charges. Her book about her ordeal is The Uncaged Sky: My 804 Days in an Iranian Prison. Join Tom’s Exclusive Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/cff5e11f69a3/switzerland-with-tom-switzer Read Tom’s Substack: https://substack.com/@tomswitzershow About the host Tom Switzer is a journalist and broadcaster who has been a prolific commentator on politics and international affairs. His writing and commentary have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times (international), The Australian, and across ABC and News24 (formerly Sky News), where he has been a regular presenter and panellist. For 30 years, since 1995, he has worked at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, the Australian Financial Review, The Australian, the London-based Spectator magazine, and the Sydney-based Centre for Independent Studies, which he headed from 2017 to 2025. He is the host of Switzerland, a long-form interview series exploring global politics, modern history, and the ideas shaping the world. #Iran #RezaPahlavi #KylieMooreGilbert #TomSwitzer

France is facing a deepening crisis of political legitimacy. The recent wave of rioting, looting and arson reflects not merely youthful discontent, but a wider challenge to the institutions of the Fifth Republic. Simon Heffer, one of the English-speaking world’s leading experts on French politics, attributes significant blame to radical-left activists: protests initially focused on the education system have been transformed into a broader confrontation with the French state. With Marine Le Pen’s National Rally seeking power and Jean-Luc Mélenchon offering a radical-left alternative, the traditional centrist parties face a formidable challenge. Dissatisfaction with the performance of government, public spending and economic prospects has weakened the political establishment, while Mélenchon’s economic programme would threaten the prosperity on which France’s extensive public services depend. The most troubling possibility is that a Le Pen victory could intensify rather than resolve France’s divisions. Sections of the radical left might refuse to accept a democratic outcome. The failure of France’s political centre has created an opening for increasingly polarised forces on both left and right, with consequences that could extend well beyond the presidential election. Simon Heffer, the distinguished British historian and columnist, writes a regular column for The Connexion, the English-language newspaper serving the British and international community in France.  Join Tom's Exclusive Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/cff5e11f69a3/switzerland-with-tom-switzer Read Tom's Substack: https://substack.com/@tomswitzershow Tom Switzer is a journalist and broadcaster who has been a prolific commentator on politics and international affairs. His writing and commentary have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times (international), The Australian, and across ABC and News24 (formerly Sky News), where he has been a regular presenter and panellist. For 30 years, since 1995, he has worked at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, the Australian Financial Review, The Australian, the London-based Spectator magazine, and the Sydney-based Centre for Independent Studies, which he headed from 2017 to 2025. He is the host of Switzerland, a long-form interview series exploring global politics, modern history, and the ideas shaping the world.

John Mearsheimer argues that Ukraine cannot win the war, and that Donald Trump’s pressure on Kyiv and his easing of sanctions on Russia are steps towards ending it. Tom Switzer also asks him whether Washington’s economic war on Iran is working, whether Tehran will spring an October surprise before the US midterms, and what Barack Obama’s Belfast remarks reveal about the debate over Israel. Trump’s growing estrangement from Volodymyr Zelensky has raised fresh questions about the future of the war in Ukraine and the transatlantic alliance. His decisions have once again outraged the proponents of conventional Western wisdom. But John Mearsheimer argues that pressuring Kyiv to accept a settlement is a necessary step towards ending a war Ukraine cannot win. What are the longer-term consequences for American credibility, European security and relations between Washington and its traditional allies? We then examine the latest developments in the US-Iran war. The so-called Economic D-Day was presented as the decisive blow that military operations had failed to deliver. But nearly 50 days later, how effective has Washington’s campaign to bring Iran’s economy to its knees proved? Meanwhile, tensions and attacks are intensifying in the Strait of Hormuz. Will Tehran spring an October surprise ahead of the US midterm elections? What would a peace settlement on unfavourable terms for Washington mean for the regional balance of power? Could it undermine American influence not only across the Middle East but also in East Asia? Finally, we turn to Barack Obama’s recent remarks in Belfast, where the former US president accused Israel of having taken Palestinian land and warned that its reliance on military superiority, without meaningful concessions, had “ceded moral ground”. As Israelis prepare to head to the polls, what do Obama’s comments reveal about the growing debate over Israel’s conduct, its long-term security and the prospects for peace with the Palestinians? About the guest John Mearsheimer is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and the author of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (2001). Join Tom’s Exclusive Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/cff5e11f69a3/switzerland-with-tom-switzer Read Tom’s Substack: https://substack.com/@tomswitzershow About the host Tom Switzer is a journalist and broadcaster who has been a prolific commentator on politics and international affairs. His writing and commentary have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times (international), The Australian, and across ABC and News24 (formerly Sky News), where he has been a regular presenter and panellist. For 30 years, since 1995, he has worked at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, the Australian Financial Review, The Australian, the London-based Spectator magazine, and the Sydney-based Centre for Independent Studies, which he headed from 2017 to 2025. He is the host of Switzerland, a long-form interview series exploring global politics, modern history, and the ideas shaping the world. #JohnMearsheimer #Ukraine #Iran #TomSwitzer

The Houthi rebels of Yemen have become one of the most consequential and disruptive forces in the Middle East. Backed by Iran but pursuing their own political and military objectives, they have survived years of warfare, Saudi-led intervention and an intense American bombing campaign. In this conversation, Elizabeth Kendall, one of the world’s leading experts on the Houthis and Director of Girton College, Cambridge, explains the movement’s origins, ideology and leadership, its relationship with Tehran and its growing role in the wider regional conflict. We also examine the Houthis’ latest escalation, their capacity to threaten Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure and their ability to disrupt shipping through the strategically vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Can Riyadh defend itself without American military support, and is Donald Trump prepared to help? What would reluctance or refusal to intervene tell America’s Gulf allies about Washington’s credibility and commitment to regional security?  Finally, we consider what the Houthis rebels’ campaign means for global energy supplies and international shipping. Join Tom's Exclusive Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/cff5e11f69a3/switzerland-with-tom-switzer Read Tom's Substack: https://substack.com/@tomswitzershow Tom Switzer is a journalist and broadcaster who has been a prolific commentator on politics and international affairs. His writing and commentary have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times (international), The Australian, and across ABC and News24 (formerly Sky News), where he has been a regular presenter and panellist. For 30 years, since 1995, he has worked at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, the Australian Financial Review, The Australian, the London-based Spectator magazine, and the Sydney-based Centre for Independent Studies, which he headed from 2017 to 2025. He is the host of Switzerland, a long-form interview series exploring global politics, modern history, and the ideas shaping the world.

President Donald Trump has turned up the pressure on Ukraine, calling for Volodymyr Zelensky to be replaced as president and urging Kyiv to halt its attacks on Russian oil refineries. The intervention raises fresh questions about Washington’s commitment to Ukraine and the direction of Trump’s strategy towards Moscow. The timing is striking. The Trump administration has also reached an agreement allowing Russia to supply hundreds of thousands of tonnes of diesel fuel to the United States. The deal represents a significant shift in policy towards Moscow, potentially easing pressure on Russia over its war in Ukraine as the White House seeks to contain fuel prices ahead of next month’s US midterm elections. Meanwhile, Iran is looking to regain the initiative in its confrontation with Washington. Having faced a blockade of its ports and growing pressure over the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran is seeking to reassert its influence. This week, Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen launched separate attacks on Persian Gulf oil producers, sending oil prices sharply higher and renewing concerns about the security of the region’s energy supplies. And in a very different controversy, what are we to make of the Trump administration’s proposal to livestream the execution of Nidal Malik Hasan, the convicted Fort Hood shooter? Tom Switzer discusses these developments with two guests whose perspectives on American power and the Ukraine war promise a lively conversation. John Mearsheimer is a professor of political science at the University of Chicago and the author of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. Aaron Maté is a Canadian journalist and writer who hosts Pushback with Aaron Maté on The Grayzone. His latest book is Their Blood, Our Bullets: The Hidden Story of the US-Russia War for Ukraine. Join Tom's Exclusive Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/cff5e11f69a3/switzerland-with-tom-switzer Read Tom's Substack: https://substack.com/@tomswitzershow Tom Switzer is a journalist and broadcaster who has been a prolific commentator on politics and international affairs. His writing and commentary have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times (international), The Australian, and across ABC and News24 (formerly Sky News), where he has been a regular presenter and panellist. For 30 years, since 1995, he has worked at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, the Australian Financial Review, The Australian, the London-based Spectator magazine, and the Sydney-based Centre for Independent Studies, which he headed from 2017 to 2025. He is the host of Switzerland, a long-form interview series exploring global politics, modern history, and the ideas shaping the world.