RoozCast

The US and Iran go to war Today! ... on a football pitch. The two sides meet in their last first-round game of the Qatar World Cup, and whoever wins will almost certainly advance to the knockout stage — a first for Iran. But this time, the long-running geopolitical tensions between the two bitter enemies have taken a back seat to the ongoing women-led protests against the government in Iran, the biggest the country has seen since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. 

If you tour Doha, the capital of Qatar, the men's football World Cup is all around. There's a FIFA installation every few meters, flags and soccer balls line the pavements, and the streets shine bright with Qatar 2022-branded lights. But none of this matters because Qatar hosts a big party for wealthy Arabs. Most have flown in from neighboring countries to experience a once-in-a-lifetime event. Dressed in team colors complete with face paint, drums, and other swag, the energy of the wealthy Arabs can perhaps outdo any Western country. Since money is no object, post-match celebrations go on well into the wee hours of the morning.

Saudi Arabia's incredible victory over Argentina on Tuesday was one of the greatest upsets in World Cup history. The game made the entire Kingdom proud — and sent long-awaited ripples of soccer joy throughout the Arab world. 

Since it invaded Ukraine, Russia hasn't just been making enemies and losing friends. Some Central Asian countries – considered part of Russia's backyard thanks to their Soviet heritage – have begun distancing themselves from Moscow.  Astana wants to diversify its trade and diplomacy. Still, the country's proximity to Russia – compounded by political, cultural, and economic ties – means Kazakhstan will struggle to escape Russia's sphere of influence entirely.

This Sunday-  just two days from today - is the day half the world has eagerly awaited for four years. The men's football or soccer (for my American Audience) World Cup — the most-watched event of the most popular sport on the planet — kicks off in, of all places, Qatar. For one thing, it's not the first time a World Cup host has had a dodgy human rights record. After all, Argentina won its first trophy at home in 1978 while the country was run by a fearsome military junta. For another, the political stuff usually stops when the ball starts rolling. Once the game is underway, most fans' attention will switch quickly from human rights to the human magic expected from the feet of megastars like Leo Messi, Kylian Mbappé, or Neymar. (We'd mention Cristiano Ronaldo too, but he's in a  bit of a slump these days.) The smart money seems to be on Argentina and Brazil, but there are plenty of underdogs — hello, Senegal — with a shot at going all the way.

Despite lowering the anticipated “Red Wave” to a mere trickle in the midterms last week, he’s running. Despite an upcoming Georgia Senate runoff that hangs in the balance, Mr. Trump is actually running. Trouble is brewing within the GOP itself. Trump might be too toxic to win a general election himself now, but without his voters, no Republican stands a chance in 2024. His presence threatens a crack in the republican party whereby a bunch of Republican voters who are needed to win in a general election take their ball and go home if Trump isn't the guy. So the problem the Republicans face is that they can't win with Trump and can't win without him.

Today, US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping are having their first face-to-face meeting since Joe Biden was elected in 2020. Since they last met in 2011, when both were vice presidents, tensions between Washington and Beijing have only escalated. Stabilizing the world’s most important bilateral relationship is essential to China, the US, and the rest of the world. Checks and balances limit Biden's executive powers to deal with Xi’s China. The same can't be said for President Xi.

As we are closing the week, the big news is happening on the economic and political fronts around the world.  The American economy got some good news yesterday: Monthly inflation in October dropped to 7.7%, down from 8.2% in September, and is now at its lowest since January 2022. The crypto market's really poor run got even worse this week after FTX, a major crypto exchange, imploded - big time.... added by billionaire crypto-star Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX was revealed to be in a bad financial position earlier this week, and Binance, the largest exchange, and an FTX competitor considered bailing FTX out, but dropped the idea at the eleventh hour when it became clear FTX was insolvent, and its customers couldn't withdraw assets.  Last but not least,  President Joe Biden, meanwhile, will be on-site in Bali for G20, where he plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday for their first in-person chat since Biden moved into the White House. But don't expect significant results for the meeting.

The world is suffering from uncomfortably high inflation as economies adjust to the troubles brought by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and all other crazy stuff happening around the world, but several countries are dealing with double- or triple-digit price increases or inflation. In Argentina, for example, a rapid acceleration of price gains in recent months has many economists predicting inflation will reach 100% this year and next year.

Midterm elections are always a referendum on incumbency, as demonstrated by the fact that the party in control of the White House has lost Congressional seats in 36 out of 39 midterm races since the Civil War. It’s nearly impossible to satisfy voters – particularly those caught in a painful spiral of inflation and recession worries – by advocating for the status quo. That’s the challenge for Democrats: trying to defend their own track record while simultaneously recognizing what remains to be done.  Economic turmoil has forever been a toxic agent that gives the underdog (Republicans in this Midterm) an abundance of ammunition to oust the incumbent party. If Democrats lose big on Tuesday, paving the way for a slate of GOP newcomers, it will be a significant gift to Donald Trump as he looks ready to announce a run for the White House in 2024.