151. Peak Fossil Fuels - Sep24

ExxonMobil forecasts 2050 Oil demand be the same as today. We believe that they are just “talking their books.”To discuss the future of the Energy system as well as the fight against Climate Change, we bring in a very respected expert and friend of the show: Kingsmill Bond, Energy Strategist at RMI. Kingsmill has been digging deep into the data and has realized that the fossil fuel cohort simply cannot fathom the speed of the Energy Transition.Gerard and Laurent have a lengthy debate about the trends, the adoption of clean energy, not only in the OECD, but also what is now referred as the “Global South” and deliver an optimist message about the future.  In the present, the pessimists always sound smarter, but in the long-term optimists are always right.------- RMI is a global NGO transforming the global energy system to secure a clean, prosperous, zero-carbon future for all.RMI:  https://rmi.org/the-world-re-energized/RMI report: https://rmi.org/insight/the-cleantech-revolution/Nick Eyre work: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12053-021-09982-9?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

As Europe has reached 270GW wind power (vs 150GW USA), corresponding to a value of 500bnEUR, we dig into the value of those assets. Gerard being out, Laurent brought his friend Mortimer Menzel, Managing Partner of Augusta Co, one of the most seasoned investment bankers in the wind sector.After describing the past gloom (interest rates, inflation, supply chain, Ukraine), we analyse the fundamentals of the market and turn out to be very optimistic for the years ahead, both onshore and offshore.  Mortimer talentedly explains how the risks and markets have evolved over time and what impact they will have on future valuations. Overall, he is bullish as ever.  -------------------- I will be chairing a free Seminar on the future of Green Energy procurement with Ofgem, KPMG, S&P Global and Renewabl, the award-winning platform I seat on the Board of, at the law firm Wedlake Bell, on Thursday 3/10 at 4pm. In the City of London. Super technical.Link to Register.   Renewabl day: The future of renewable energy procurement · Luma

As wind and solar become ubiquitous, the value of hydropower goes up. Hydropower is becoming the ultimate clean energy, as it is flexible and easily dispatchable.Hydropower is concentrated in certain geographies (China, Brazil, Canada) and is almost entirely developed by State-Owned Utilities that can stomach and support the very long construction time. Bost costs and value should be measured in decades, not in years.Unfortunately, Climate Change is impacting the reliability of hydro; we have recently witnessed  a succession of dry years and wet years, which have created stresses in the American West, Brazil and China… So, how to make the best of it? How to optimize this valuable resource?That is the life’s mission of Janice Goodenough, CEO of HYDROGRID. With a master’s degree in Applied Mathematics and over 15 years of experience in the hydropower sector, Janice Goodenough is a dedicated advocate for leveraging the complete potential of hydropower amidst the evolving energy landscape. HYDROGRID Insight is an integrated water management & production planning platform for proactive hydro teams, providing comprehensive, predictive capabilities such as plant monitoring, predictive production planning, optimal trading, as well as constraint and maintenance management under a single hood.We love hydro, but they need to stop snoozing. Wake up!  We thank AMUNDI for supporting the show Transcripts   https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008    

“Summer has come and passed / The innocent can never last / Wake me up when September ends”. Like John Wick, Laurent thinks he is back.So we have a very energetic Minutes to start September. With Gerard, the co-hosts focus on one of the key trends of 2024 which they call “Batteries, the Great Consolidation”. A lot of great experts are helping shape our view.To name a few Aaron Wade, Tom Tsogt, Cormac O’Laoire, Christopher Chico, Chris Berry, Benchmark Minerals Intelligence/Rho Motion (Iola Hughe  and all Simon Moores’ team). We are thankful for their relentless drive to show us the future.So, what is the “Great Consolidation” in Batteries. First consolidation in the supplier's landscape, with CATL and BYD trashing the competition and indirectly eliminating a lot of promising startups (We list the cancelled Gigafactories). Then, consolidation in Chemistry, it’s all about LFP now. Finally consolidation in form factor, with prismatic becoming the staple.At the end of the episode, we salute the King of Solar in Pakistan, Sulaiman ur Rehman.And also invite on our podcast Mr Faraz Ahmad, one of the Top Energy guy at Amazon, as we are very curious about his attempts to rewrite the rules for accounting for Carbon Emissions. We want to know more. Faraz, you are welcome!    Transcripthttps://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008

How to decarbonise buildings? That’s an important topic because that sector accounts for 37% of all emissions, making it one of the three pillars of decarbonisation next to electricity generation and transportation.Progress has been mixed. If lighting is an incredible success, heating and cooling remain a complex proposition with certain countries adopting new technologies much faster than others. Energy efficiency is sometimes a hard sell, as pay back periods can be counted in decades. Energy efficiency can be active, passive, “behind the meter” or at system’s level. Laurent and Gerard wander though that landscape with Vincent Petit, who runs Schneider Electric Sustainability Research Institute. Vincent has overseen the company’s prospective on the Climate and Energy Transition since 2017. Digital and behind the meter (solar, batteries) open new horizons even if regulators get confused between sticks and carrots.Furthermore, the famous “Jevons Paradox” seems to indicate that energy efficiency gains trigger a rise in energy consumption. We discuss options to decarbonise buildings, a long and winding road, but nevertheless critical to solving climate change. We debate about the value of sticks and carrots and the efficiency of public policy support. Is there a winning formula?We thank Amundi for supporting the showTranscripts available here: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008

A special interview with one of the great minds of the Energy Transition. Dr. Doug Arent is the Executive Director of Strategic Public– Private Partnerships at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, U.S and Distinguished Fellow, World Economic Forum.  He just published a book called “Our Renewable Energy Future: The Story of How Renewables will become the Basis for Our Lives.”   “Our Renewable Energy Future” focuses on clean energy technology evolution and where our energy system is going. While its foundation is technology innovation, the book brings a unique perspective that technology alone is not what has brought about the explosive growth of renewable energy.  Laurent and Gerard have a stratospheric conversation with Dr Arent about the options in front of us. Digitisation and intelligent networks are going to revolutionize the way we produce and consumer energy.  About NREL: Originally called the Solar Energy Research Institute, NREL began operating in July 1977 and was designated a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in September 1991. It runs a budget of 1bnUSD/y making it one of the world’s (if not the) most impressive R&D institutions when it comes to Renewable Energy.  LINK TO BOOK https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/q0441#t=aboutBookWe thank Amundi for supporting the showTranscripts available here: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008

During Summer season, we bring you back the best of our sister show, Redefining Energy TECH, where host Michael Barnard invites Paul Martin for a very long and geekie conversation about innovative solutions for industrial heat. Two titans of our industry.Paul Martin, a seasoned chemical engineer, share his profound insights on the electrification of industrial heat processes. Here’s a brief summary of the conversation:The discussion kicked off with a critical analysis of the inefficiencies associated with using fire for heat generation compared to electricity. Paul emphasized that electricity not only offers cost advantages but also enhances safety. A significant portion of the conversation was dedicated to the concept of exergy, highlighting its crucial role in the energy transition towards decarbonization. Paul underscored the potential of direct electricity usage for heating processes, moving away from traditional methods of burning chemical energy.We also delved into the advancements in battery technology, discussing how these innovations are revolutionizing energy storage and management. Paul provided fascinating insights into the practical applications of batteries in industrial settings, particularly for short-term high-power requirements.The episode further explored the diverse heat requirements in industrial food preparation, comparing the efficiency of natural gas with other energy sources. Paul highlighted the practicalities and benefits of heat pumping in industrial processes, stressing the importance of understanding different heat metrics for efficiency calculations.In addition to these technical discussions, Paul addressed the challenges and misconceptions surrounding the technology readiness levels and market readiness of heat pumping applications. He also explained the significance of temperature lift in heat pumping and its applications below 200 degrees Celsius. Paul Martin shared insights on various types of industrial heat, including cement clinkering and specialty high-temperature processes, highlighting the importance of efficient heat management.The discussion also touched on the potential of changing wire types for better energy transfer and the role of smart demand and storage solutions during peak energy periods. The episode explored cutting-edge heating technologies such as induction heating, thermolysis, and electrolysis, emphasizing their advantages over traditional combustion methods. Environmental considerations were a key focus, with a shift towards electric heating for sustainability and exploring alternatives to fossil fuels for high-temperature processes.Closing remarks from Michael Barnard and Paul Martin highlighted the value propositions and technological innovations discussed, endorsing consulting services for chemistry process engineering with Paul Martin at Spitfire Research.This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the future of industrial heat and clean energy solutions. Overall, this episode is a treasure trove of knowledge for anyone interested in industrial heat electrification and the future of energy systems.    Transcripts available here: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008

In episode 143, Gerard, Laurent and Michael have discussed the philosophy of Bill Gates when it comes to the Energy Transition, and the root causes of his flawed thesis. Let see now if this transpires in his main investment vehicle, Breakthrough Energy Ventures (BEV).Michael Barnard is quite blunt: “To be clear, Gates is still highly resistant to the reality that we have almost all of the solutions we require, and that Breakthrough Energy Ventures is mostly invested in distractions.” As we are about to celebrate the 10th anniversary of BEV, we dive into its successes and failures. And it is a complex picture. BEV has invested in more than 100 companies which is a feat in itself.  For a 3.5bnUSD portfolio, that’s an average of 40mUSD/ticket.When you dig into the portfolio, you will get the Good, with promising ventures (such as Antora, Rondo, Boston Metals, Brimstone, TS Conductor, Fervo, Natel, Pachama, Kobold), the bad with ginormous boondoggles (nuclear, carbon, Hydrogen planes, LDES…), and the Ugly, when BEV (but they are not alone) manage to offload failed ventures via SPACs (Heliogen, QuantumScape, ESS)  or Public Money (Carbon Engineering).  So, Breakthrough or Break down? Glass half full or half empty?  A lot of Silicon Valley billionaires have emulated BEV, with absurd amount of money chasing impossible or totally uneconomic ventures. To name a few, Sam Altman, Khosla Ventures, Patrick Collinson (CEO Stripe) Bezos, Benioff. So, Bill is definitely not alone. And BEV, with a string of smart choices, is probably the least bad, or best of them all.  Michael Barnard unleashed in Cleantechnica https://cleantechnica.com/2024/07/04/breakthrough-energy-ventures-has-bad-investment-theses-therefore-bad-investments/

Bill Gates is sucking a lot of oxygen in the Energy Transition. Is he a force for good, or a nuisance? What is his thesis and where does it come from? And is the thesis still valid in 2024 or obsolete?In this episode, we will not analyse Breakthrough Energy Ventures, his VC fund celebrating its 10th anniversary. That will be the topic of Episode 144, next week.Laurent, Gerard and Michael are going to analyse Bill Gates fascination for Vaclav Smil and David MacKay.  We will dissect how their theories have been consequential in the shaping of Bill Gates’ vision.We will delve into Smil’s errors, namely the Primary Energy Fallacy, the refusal to consider wind, solar and batteries as viable alternatives and the impact they have had on Bill Gates thinking, and - probably worse - investments.We will discuss how the Oil Industry has found an ally (probably unwilling, but certainly powerful) in their quest for immobility. Elon Musk might be controversial, but at least he has made the journey in practice, not in theory.A very heated discussion. And we are not going to make friends here. That’s OK. Country above Party. Bill Gates on Smilhttps://www.gatesnotes.com/Numbers-Dont-Lie  

This week, it is a solo by Gerard Reid.This is the audio of its remarkable presentation at EcoSummit Berlin in June 2024. The topic is “Batteries vs Hydrogen”Link to the YouTube   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAbr4byi414