Prime Time Charts Podcast

This is the final episode in our market strategy series and most timely given we that have the opportunity to assess whether the recent upswing in global equity markets is done or whether the bull market is back in play. We discuss the likely implications of the April month end closes in several USD and AUD crosses and drill down on the meaning of the April close in Brent crude oil futures.

The global equity market uptrends of the past 4-5 weeks have in some cases been of a similar percentage to the February/March downtrends. Today we assess the equity market trends in the US, Germany, UK, Australia and China and identify key triggers that will help us to understand when the 2020 bear market is showing signs of completion. Our analysis implies that we're not there yet.

This equity market bounce is putting us to the test. Is it a correction? Is the start of the next bull market? We will place some rules around these outcomes today. Tactical trading in FX markets is the key to profiting from times like these when the broader trends stall or become uncertain. One thing is for sure. Volatility remains high and great opportunities present themselves daily. In FX we focus on AUD, NZD and JPY today, while also analysing the recent technical analysis outcomes in Gold and Crude Oil.

Equity market corrections are difficult to navigate and are known to test our resolve. Today we focus on key levels in the S&P 500 Index that will help us to confirm whether the recent upswing is a short term correction or the beginning of a sustainable uptrend. We highlght the positive sentiment implied by recent price action in crude oil futures and commodity currencies while re-affirming the bullish trend structure in Gold.

In Episode 22 we discuss the implications of the recent rejections of major technical support and resistance levels in Brent crude oil futures, the S&P 500 Index, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD while highlighting the recent deterioration in both EUR and JPY crosses.

Last week produced material reversals in equity markets and the USD. Today we assess the impact of these reversals. We focus on the major support levels that held in GBPUSD and Gold in the past 2 weeks and likely correction levels to focus on this week in what appear to be evolving MT uptrends.

The S&P 500 Index bear market has produced further confirmation. Today we highlight a logical downside target that is consistent with the major bear markets of the past 50 years. Again we focus on commodity currencies and highlight the void of support in the major AUD crosses. We discuss the MT downtrend in US 10yr yield and identify major LT support.

While the bear market in equities continues to evolve we turn our attention to G10 FX markets. We highlight the sharp positive shift that took hold of the USD in the GFC and point to evidence of a similar scenario in 2020. While this is currently playing out most prominently in the USD's outperformance of commodity currencies, we note material opportunities in cross currency plays.

The S&P 500 Index has declined 13% from its LT uptrend peak. Today we compare the chart dynamics of the 2020 peak with the peaks of 1973, 1987, 2000 and 2007. These peaks were precursors to material bear markets. This analysis implies that the 2020 peak has a high probability of setting up a material bear market.

We have recently focused on LT trend resistance in the S&P 500 Index that was rejected last week. This week we extend this discussion to the Nasdaq Index. We highlight reasons why the downtrend in US 10yr yield remains in play and note the recent failure in the USD Index and how this may impact EURUSD, USDJPY and the major commodity currencies.