Prediction Market Movers

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher chats with Leif Abraham, Co-Founder & Co-CEO of Public, to discuss the evolution of Public into an agentic, multi-asset brokerage and why the company recently added prediction markets through its partnership with Kalshi. Abraham explains how Public is using AI agents to automate trading strategies, portfolio management, risk management, and other financial decisions. He discusses how agents can help investors execute systematic strategies, reduce emotional decision-making, and connect different asset classes within a single portfolio. He also explains how Public built its agentic technology to separate AI reasoning from deterministic trade execution. Chris and Leif also discuss what will differentiate brokerages as prediction markets and other new financial products become more widely available, Public’s focus on digital-native investors, the role of product design and AI, the company’s rapid pace of innovation, and what’s next for Public as it continues expanding its multi-asset platform. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:45 - What separates you from other brokerage firms? 2:30 Ai agent portfolio management 4:25 - Benefits of ai agents 6:50 - Source of Ai 9:40 - How the AI adjust with backtesting 11:25 - Why focus on active traders? 13:45 - Why PM trading? 16:25 - Will perp trading be on Public? 17:20 - New trading strategies with perp trading 18:15 - What will separate different brokerages apart? 21:20 - Why were AI agents were a priority for the company? 24:20 - The future of Public #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #LeifAbraham #Public #Kalshi #PredictionNews #AIAgents #AgenticTrading #EventContracts #Perpetuals #Investing #Fintech #CFTC

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlach of Prediction News sits down with CJ Hetherington, Co-Founder & CEO of Limitless Exchange, to discuss the company’s origins, the growth of prediction markets, and how Limitless is building its place in an increasingly competitive industry. Hetherington explains what Limitless learned from Kalshi and Polymarket, the challenges of bootstrapping liquidity, and why he believes prediction markets have significant opportunities beyond sports and elections. He discusses Limitless’ global on-chain strategy, its focus on international consumers, and its plans to build a regulated U.S. venue for institutional customers and risk-transfer markets. The conversation also covers DeFi regulation, KYC, self-custody, AI trading agents, CFTC oversight, and perpetual futures. CJ explains how AI agents could participate in prediction markets, the regulatory questions they create, and the differences between fully collateralized event contracts and leveraged perpetual futures. Chris and CJ also discuss prediction-market liquidity, specialized exchanges, global expansion, aggregating Kalshi and Polymarket liquidity, custom trading packs, peer-to-peer markets, and the future of Limitless. Plus, CJ shares what’s next for the company as it works toward launching its U.S. regulated exchange. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:40 - How he got into PMs 5:30 - Limitless’ unique value 7:55 - Views on regulation 9:20 - KYC requirements 10:40 - Risks 12:50 - Allowing AI agents 14:50 - The struggles both event contracts and perps 18:50 - Differences in International markets 22:00 - Building an exchange 25:35 - On specialty markets 28:00 - What’s next for Limitless? #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #CJHetherington #LimitlessExchange #PredictionNews #Kalshi #Polymarket #CFTC #Crypto #DeFi #EventContracts #Perpetuals

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News sits down with Gary DeWaal, a veteran CFTC and derivatives law expert, for a deep dive into the history and future of prediction markets, futures regulation, and the ongoing legal battles surrounding sports event contracts. DeWaal shares his perspective from decades in derivatives law, including his time at the CFTC. The conversation examines the long-running tension between state gambling laws and federally regulated futures markets, from the Statute of Anne and early bucket-shop laws to the Commodity Exchange Act and modern CFTC preemption. DeWaal explains his interpretation of how sports event contracts fit within the CFTC's jurisdiction and why he believes the definition of swaps and the federal preemption framework are central to the current prediction market litigation. Chris and DeWaal also break down Kalshi's Ninth Circuit litigation, the distinction between betting and exchange-traded derivatives, sports contracts, CFTC enforcement, and the regulatory challenges facing prediction markets. They also take a detailed look at perpetual futures ("perps"), including funding mechanisms, market surveillance, reference prices, 24/7 trading, leverage, and the concerns surrounding perpetual contracts in agricultural markets. The episode also explores 24/7 futures trading, prediction market regulation, responsible trading rules, and DeWaal's role as a public director at prediction market exchange Növig. With prediction markets and perpetuals rapidly evolving, this conversation offers a historical and legal perspective on some of the biggest regulatory questions facing the derivatives industry today. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:35 - Going back in time 6:30 - Regulating derivative laws in the 1970s 14:15 - Reaction to recent 9th Circuit court decisions 26:00 - On CFTC enforcing rules 34:00 - Agricultural trade concerns 37:05 - Why join Novig? 39:05 - Being on the frontline for sports contracts #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #GaryDeWaal #Kalshi #CFTC #PredictionNews #Polymarket #EventContracts #SportsContracts #Derivatives #Futures #Perpetuals #FinancialRegulation #CommodityExchangeAct #Trading

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News sits down with Harshit Geddam, Head of Technology at OpinionKings, to discuss the company’s innovative approach to prediction markets. OpinionKings is connecting short-form social media content with existing prediction markets, allowing users to discover market ideas and trade without leaving the content experience. Geddam explains how OpinionKings is building around the creator economy, including creator credibility scores, premium content, subscriptions, and incentives for creators to bring their audiences into prediction markets. The goal is to turn creator expertise and market opinions into a new source of engagement and participation. The conversation also explores OpinionKings’ focus on non-sports prediction markets, including economics, crypto, politics, entertainment, weather, and climate. Geddam discusses why these markets can be difficult to discover, how creator-driven content could help generate liquidity, and why Opinion Kings sees itself as a complement to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket rather than a direct competitor. Chris and Harshit also discuss OpinionKings’ early user adoption, paper-trading results, plans for real-money trading, the role of Gen Z, and the company’s vision for bringing social media, creators, and prediction markets together. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Matching reels with the markets 3:45 - Credibility of content creator 7:05 - Filtering out personalities 8:35 - Why target the creator economy? 12:02 - “we treat creators as employees” 15:00 - User adoption of opinion kings 17:45 - Audience engagement with trading 19:50 - Competitor vs complimentary 22:45 - Any isolated feelings towards sports contracts? 26:20 - What’s next for OpinionKings? #PredictionMarkets #OpinionKings #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #PredictionNews #HarshitGeddam #CreatorEconomy #Fintech #SocialMedia #Trading #PredictionMarket #GenZ #Crypto #EventContracts

Former CFTC official Dorothy DeWitt joins Chris Gerlacher on Prediction Market Movers for an in-depth look at the evolution of prediction markets, Kalshi’s early years, and the regulatory challenges shaping the industry today. DeWitt led the CFTC team that worked on Kalshi’s designation as a Designated Contract Market, giving her a unique perspective on how Kalshi navigated the regulatory process and what the CFTC was thinking about prediction markets in the early days. She explains the original pitch behind Kalshi, the challenges surrounding event contracts and self-certification, and how regulators approached an entirely new type of exchange. The conversation then turns to the biggest issues facing prediction markets in 2026, including CFTC regulation, prediction market guardrails, SEC-CFTC harmonization, and the classification of prediction market products. DeWitt also dives into arbitration and customer disputes, conflicts of interest, exchange rulebooks, market surveillance, and the importance of developing a taxonomy for prediction market contracts. DeWitt touches on why a well-designed taxonomy could help bring institutional liquidity into the industry while also giving regulators and exchanges better tools to monitor manipulation, insider trading, and other forms of market abuse. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Her CFTC days 3:30 Getting a DCM 5:20 - Adjusting to a new administration  8:10 - Differences in leadership 10:40 - priorities 12:20 - Legal landscape in the next administration 14:30 - Guard rails in prediction markets 17:35 - Why is vertical integration a hot topic? 19:50 - Solutions to conflicts of interests 21:40 - Disruptive perpetual contracts 24:50 - Swaps vs. futures 26:35 - A mature PM industry 29:20 - SEC and CFTC harmony 34:00 - On taxonomies #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #CFTC #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionNews #Polymarket #EventContracts #PredictionMarket #FinancialMarkets #Regulation #Perpetuals #SEC #Trading #Fintech

Former Kalshi Head of Politics Jaron Zhou joins Chris Gerlacher on Prediction Market Movers to discuss how political prediction markets work, how they complement polling, and what they can reveal about the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential cycle. Jaron breaks down the practical role of prediction markets in politics, including election forecasting, hedging political risk, campaign resource allocation, candidate electability, market calibration, and interpreting probabilities. The conversation also examines the 2026 Senate map, why the Senate has moved toward a closer race, the Texas Senate contest, progressive candidates in Michigan and Wisconsin, anti-incumbency within both parties, what "moderate" really means to voters, and how prediction markets can help identify emerging political trends. Chris and Jaron also look ahead to 2028, including generational change in the Democratic Party, the potential impact of Trump on Republican candidates, the future of progressive versus moderate politics, and emerging political issues such as AI and data centers. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets.   For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com   00:00 - Intro 1:20 - How Jaron landed at Kalshi 3:20 - Misconceptions of Prediction Markets and polling 6:35 - Life after Kalshi 7:15 - Uses of political markets 11:35 - Identifying darkhorse candidates 13:20 - Using markets to interpret election results 16:30 - Can prediction Market data changed your perspective on elections? 19:30 -Senate is in play for dems 22:50 - Talarico’s christian platform 26:00 - Progressive victories in Wisconsin and Michigan 32:30 - What does moderate mean for a swing voter? 36:00 - What could a democrat offer to the presidency? #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #JaronZhou #Kalshi #Election2026 #Midterms2026 #ElectionMarkets #PoliticalMarkets #PredictionMarkets2026 #2028Election #PoliticalForecasting #ElectionOdds #PredictionNews #KalshiPolitics #ElectionPrediction

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Dr. Robin Hanson to explore where prediction markets came from, where they're headed, and how they could become a much more powerful tool for decision-making. Hanson revisits the early DARPA Policy Analysis Market controversy, explains the evolution of combinatorial prediction markets, and discusses why he believes organizations should eventually pay directly for the information prediction markets produce. The conversation shifts into prediction market accuracy, political market volatility, probability, market manipulation, and the backlash facing platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Hanson explains how traders should think about changing prices, why market participants need to ask what information they have that others don't, and how prediction markets could eventually move beyond simple yes-or-no contracts into conditional markets that estimate the consequences of different decisions. Hanson also lays out his long-term vision for decision markets—markets designed to help governments, companies, organizations, and individuals make better decisions. He discusses applications ranging from healthcare and education to corporate leadership and public policy, along with his research into the concept of the "sacred" and how ideas like sacred money could potentially make controversial prediction markets more acceptable. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com More about Dr. Robin Hanson: https://economics.gmu.edu/people/rhanson 00:00 - Intro 1:40 - Funding the original DARPA 4:30 - The use of trading technology 5:45 - Subsidizing markets 8:15 - Price movements 13:40 - Future of Polymakret and Kalshi 16:05 - Goal with prediction market 17:20 - Bad decisions 20:00 - Conditional Markets 22:00 - PM backlash 25:15 - Insider trading complaints 28:15 - Prediction Market polices on information 31:00 - Journalism and PMs coexisting 33:15 - Dr. Hanson's current research subjects 34:50 - “Money isn’t sacred” 37:40 - Differences between sacred money and real money 39:00 - Themes of the sacred #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #RobinHanson #Kalshi #Polymarket #Forecasting #PredictionMarkets #DecisionMarkets #PredictionNews #Politics #Trading #FutureOfMarkets

What happens when proprietary trading meets prediction markets? Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News sits down with Melissa Footlick, founder and CEO of Catalyst, to explain how prop trading works and why she believes the traditional model needs to change. Footlick breaks down evaluations, simulated-funded accounts, payouts, trading restrictions and the challenges traders face with complicated and constantly changing rules. They also discuss how Catalyst is taking a different approach, built around transparency, simplicity and objective rules. The conversation covers Catalyst's $10 starter account, its simulated $1,000 prediction market account, how traders can qualify for a $100 payout, and why the company chose Polymarket as its initial market platform. Catalyst is offering Prediction Market Makers & Prediction News subscribers a free $1,000 simulated account. Pass the challenge and earn $100. Use code PMMOVERS at checkout:https://www.tradecatalyst.com/ Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - What is prop trading? 5:40 - Restrictions for prop traders/firms 14:45 - Building Catalyst 18:30 - Walking through getting paid 22:00 - Where does the real cash come from? 23:00 - Customer feedback on Catalyst 27:30 Why build on PolyMarket? 29:20 - Different future options for Catalyst #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #Catalyst #PropTrading #PredictionMarketTrading #Trading #Crypto #Kalshi #PredictionNews #FinTech #tradingeducation Guest: Melissa Footlick, Founder & CEO of Catalyst Host: Chris Gerlacher, Prediction News

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with gaming industry analyst-consultant Steve Ruddock to examine how today's prediction markets compare to the early days of daily fantasy sports, online poker, and sports betting. They discuss the legal battles surrounding Kalshi and Polymarket, the role of the Supreme Court, and why history may provide a roadmap for where prediction markets are headed next. Steve also shares insights on the similarities between DFS and prediction markets, the influence of the American Gaming Association (AGA), responsible gaming debates, federal versus state regulation, and how companies like FanDuel are approaching prediction markets. The conversation also explores why messaging, lobbying, and regulatory strategy could determine the industry's future as much as the courtroom battles. Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:45 - Early stage DFS compared to early stage prediction market 4:20 - DFS durability 7:00 - Legalities with gaming institutions 8:30 - Too big to fail argument 13:15 - Which companies can survive long term? 16:30 - Where prediction markets could fall in court 18:00 - How can PMs weather the mental health aspect of unhealthy gaming 21:30 - Is the gaming lobby misunderstood? 26:40 - What is the AGA’s focus right now? 30:30 - Scenarios for PM survivability #predictionmarkets #SteveRuddock #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #SportsBetting #GamingIndustry #GamblingLaw #PredictionNews #DFS #CFTC #GamingRegulation #SportsContracts #DraftKings #fanduel Guest Steve Ruddock – Gaming journalist covering prediction markets, sports betting, online gaming regulation, and gambling policy. Check out Steve's work at https://straighttothepoint.substack.com/ Host Chris Gerlacher – Prediction News

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Steve Kuhn and Shani Raviv, the founders of Sports Predict, to discuss how forecasting competitions are being used to identify top quantitative talent for trading firms. They explain how Sports Predict evaluates forecasting ability through probability-based competitions and how consistent decision-making can be measured using Brier scores instead of traditional resumes or interviews. They also discuss the growing importance of forecasting in prediction markets, finance, and AI. Steve and Shani share why sports provide an ideal environment for measuring forecasting skill, how participants build statistical models to improve predictions, and why elite forecasters often outperform even leading AI models. They also explain how forecasting contests create a scalable way to discover talented traders from around the world and what makes prediction markets an effective testing ground for decision-making under uncertainty. Shani and Stve share Sports Predict's long-term vision, including future applications beyond sports, the role of AI in forecasting, partnerships with firms like Jump Trading, and how prediction markets could reshape hiring and talent identification across industries. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. Learn More: Prediction News https://predictionnews.com Prediction Edge https://predictionedge.com SportsPredict https://sportspredict.com/ 00:00 - Intro 1:45 - On Talent identification 5:45 - How does SportsPredict work? 9:00 - The idea behind SportsPredict 13:32 - What has changed to level the playing field 15:00 - Partnership with Trade Jumpers 17:30 - Improvement with the program 19:45 - Credentialed traders 23:00 - What’s next for SportsPredict? 27:10 - How volatile is the leaderboard? 30:00- Sharing strategies #PredictionMarkets #SportsPredict #SteveKuhn #ShaniRaviv #PredictionMarketMovers #Forecasting #Superforecasting #QuantTrading #JumpTrading #SportsAnalytics #AI #Trading #PredictionNews