We’re Entering The Final Phase Of Fiscal Dominance | David Beckworth

This week, Le Shrub joins the show to lay out his barbell portfolio strategy and "GAG" (Golden Age of Grift) thesis. We discuss fiscal dominance, bond market dysfunction, yield curve control, and why crypto—especially ETH—is gaining traction as the new high-yield frontier. We also cover risk scenarios like Japan yield shocks, Powell’s potential firing, rising inflation swaps, and how private equity and crypto are being funneled into 401(k)s to keep the system afloat. Enjoy! — Follow Le Shrub: https://x.com/agnostoxxx Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QhG4HJA0tyvEtFncy_voFFm5LEOKEcib/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:54) Shrub Portfolio (07:47) Macro Setup (12:36) Ads (VanEck, Aptos) (13:56) Yields Too High? (16:33) Bessent & QRA (18:53) “Fire Powell” Trial Balloon (20:53) Trading The Ponzi (24:48) Japan & Inflation (26:41) Who’s Gonna Buy The Bonds? (33:24) Are Recessions Over? (34:18) Ads (VanEck, Apotos) (35:42) Are Recessions Over? (36:34) Weimar Endgame (38:58) Coldplay Affair (40:41) Volatility, Hedging & Hedge Funds (47:09) Inflation vs Growth (49:52) Trump Risk & Grift (54:13) “Democratizing” Finance (56:36) Crypto Treasury Companies (01:04:07) Why Do You Own Things? (01:05:05) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Senior Research Fellow at Mercatus Center and host of Macro Musings David Beckworth breaks down the rising risks of fiscal dominance—when the Fed prioritizes government solvency over price stability. He explains the historical context of fiscal dominance, the warning signs we’re seeing today, and why current debt levels, persistent deficits, and political gridlock are pushing us closer to stage three. Beckworth also dives into the mechanics of stablecoins, the Treasury’s issuance strategy, and potential reforms to the Fed’s operating system, including balance sheet management and NGDP targeting. He warns that without serious structural change, the Fed’s independence and credibility may be at risk. Enjoy! __ Follow David: https://x.com/DavidBeckworth Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:27) Major Regime Shift (05:00) Last Era of Fiscal Dominance (08:13) Ads (VanEck, Aptos) (09:35) Fiscal Dominance Catalysts (12:29) Phases of Fiscal Dominance (18:37) Can Stablecoins Help? (23:51) Active Treasury Issuance (26:44) Ads (VanEck, Aptos) (28:06) Is the Endgame YCC? (31:29) Crossing the Rubicon (33:23) Fed Monetary Policy Framework (38:18) The Ideal Fed Reaction Function (45:18) Rethinking Forward Guidance (47:52) Balance Sheet Goals (52:13) Realistic to Offload Duration? (54:38) Should We Remove IORB? (01:13) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel explain their “Everything Code” framework showing how global debt cycles, demographics, and liquidity drive all asset prices. They argue fiat debasement is running at ~8% annually, meaning only tech stocks and crypto have outperformed over time, while gold just preserves purchasing power. They discuss the societal and economic implications of AI replacing human labor, the end of traditional recessions, why liquidity will keep increasing to roll debts, and how this cycle could mirror or exceed 2017’s asset booms. Enjoy! __ Follow Raoul: https://x.com/RaoulGMI Follow Julien: https://x.com/BittelJulien Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:50 Big Macro Picture 05:52 Demographics & Debt 10:36 Liquidity & Real Returns 13:43 What is the Endgame? 14:33 Ads (Aptos) 17:49 The Everything Code 20:43 Shifting from QE to Bills 25:12 Financial Conditions 29:40 What’s Driving Gold? 31:42 2017 on Steroids 36:00 Ads (Aptos) 36:52 Nothing Stops This Train 38:32 Removing Recession Risk 44:27 Immigration 46:42 What Happens Next? 55:04 Resurgence of Religion 58:27 When Banana Zone? __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this live panel from Permissionless IV, we unpack the rapid rise of token acquisition vehicles like MicroStrategy and Defi Dev Corp. We explore why institutions are using these vehicles to accumulate crypto faster, analyze premium-to-NAV dynamics, discuss the evolution from equity issuance to innovative debt structures like converts and moving strike warrants, and debate sustainability risks if NAV premiums collapse. Enjoy! __ Follow Dan: https://x.com/CryptoIRGuy Follow Tom: https://x.com/fundstrat Follow David: https://x.com/David_Grid Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:05) The Rise of Crypto Treasury Companies (07:45) What Catalyzed this Trend? (08:27) Ledger Ad (09:24) What Catalyzed this Trend? (14:17) Unpacking the Capital Structure (20:26) Risks to Crypto Treasury Companies (22:06) Ledger Ad (23:00) Risks to Crypto Treasury Companies (30:53) Asset Unwind Risk __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Crypto #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we dive into the latest jobs and unemployment data surprises, the hidden role of immigration in labor force changes, and why both political parties are terrible. We also dig into the looming deficit and treasury issuance implications, the EM-ification of the US, the symptoms of a failed system, and the inevitability of currency debasement. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WckOC1BLjh33MBzZsCrHM5TatPCd1EZF/view?usp=sharing — Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Cold Open (04:00) Bullish NFP? (08:25) Ads (Aptos) (11:12) Anti-Immigration Impact (17:32) Wage Growth, Yields & Controlled Demolition (21:22) BBB Passed, Now What? (26:40) Ads (Aptos) (27:32) Both Sides Are Terrible (34:32) High-Yield Credit (37:17) Get Out on the Risk Spectrum (39:52) Active Treasury Issuance Greater Than QE (41:37) The Problem is Getting Worse (44:12) All Roads Lead to Debasement (46:58) Crushing Global Labor (48:52) DXY & the End of Central Banking (51:47) EM-ification of the US (54:12) MSTR & BTC Volatility (58:44) Seasonality, Leverage & Momentum (01:01:32) Symptoms of a Failed System (01:08:50) Buying vs Renting (01:13:28) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this panel live from Permissionless IV, we discuss what TradFi can learn from crypto, from instant settlement and transparent markets to permissionless synthetic dollars and on-chain leveraged trading. We cover stablecoin demand dynamics, the future of tokenized structured products, how perps outperform options for retail, the practical limits of decentralization, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Austin: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin Follow Kaledora: https://x.com/kaledora Follow Guy: https://x.com/gdog97_ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:23) What can TradFi Learn from Crypto? (10:14) Is Decentralization Important? (10:53) Ledger Ad (11:43) Is Decentralization Important? (17:23) Bringing TradFi Onchain (22:35) Ledger Ad (23:29) Bringing TradFi Onchain (26:32) Stablecoins & The GENIUS Act (30:57) Most Optimistic Innovations __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Crypto #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this special bonus episode, we dive into the takeaways from Permissionless IV, unpacking the biggest industry narratives and themes shaping crypto today. We discuss the future of stablecoins, give a candid macro outlook, and explore how Big Tech is positioning itself as the next crypto overlord. Finally, we reflect on some predictions we got wrong – and what we learned from them. Enjoy! — Follow Jack: https://x.com/whosknave Follow Boccaccio: https://x.com/salveboccaccio Follow Danny: https://x.com/defi_kay_ Follow Rizzo: https://x.com/pete_rizzo_ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:57 Permissionless IV Takeaways 07:00 Biggest Industry Narratives 12:00 Future of Stablecoins 17:44 Macro Outlook 20:47 Big Tech Overlords 28:38 Predictions We Got Wrong — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Crypto #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this live Forward Guidance Roundup, we discuss geopolitics and the “peace dividend” theory from Pippa Malmgren, potential Fed regime shifts toward fiscal dominance, Trump’s pressure on FOMC board members, and the effects of tariffs and buybacks on equities. We also explore the implications of a weakening dollar, capital flows out of the U.S., and how AI and crypto could reshape wealth creation and ownership in the coming decade. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:10 Geopolitical Framework 05:00 Biggest Story in Markets 08:22 Flows vs Fundamentals 13:33 Moving Toward Fiscal Dominance 16:39 Housing, Labor, & the Wealth Gap 20:12 The Dollar Decline & RoW Assets 27:15 Investing in the RIght Themes 30:02 Potential Currency Accord 34:31 Tariffs, AI, & Labor — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this special episode recorded live at Permissionless IV, Maple Finance CEO Sid Powell unpacks the rise, fall, and rebuild of crypto lending. He discusses navigating the 2022 crypto credit collapse, the trade-offs between fixed and variable lending, why traditional institutions are finally entering DeFi, and how composability, transparency, and tokenized credit products are reshaping global finance. Sid also shares Maple’s shift toward overcollateralized lending, BTC-based yield products, and the future of structured on-chain credit. Enjoy! __ Follow Sidney: https://x.com/syrupsid Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) Sid Powell's Journey into Crypto (02:11) The Birth of Maple Finance (02:51) Challenges and Evolution in Crypto Lending (07:12) Ledger Ad (07:12) Challenges and Evolution in Crypto Lending (08:45) Navigating the 2022 Crypto Crisis (14:33) Current State of Crypto Lending (17:21) Biggest Crypto Innovations (18:32) Ledger Ad (19:32) Defi Integration and Secondary Markets (21:01) Creating Counterparty Transparency (22:52) Transparency and Financial Product Costs (24:40) Fixed Rate vs Variable Rate Lending in Crypto (28:21) Future of Crypto Lending and Institutional Interest (31:16) Structured Products and Treasury Companies (35:51) Navigating Crypto Market Cycles (38:25) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this live Roundup episode from the Monetarium 2 conference in DC, we unpack the Fed's hawkish pivot, the growing risk of stagflation, and Powell’s apparent commitment to being “late” with rate cuts. We debate what an SLR exemption means for bond markets, how Treasury issuance and TGA refills could spike yields, and why 2026’s Fed chair pick could upend everything. We also explore global capital flows, the decline of US dollar dominance, and how to navigate a world where almost every asset feels dangerous to own. Enjoy! — Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:00) FOMC Decision (09:06) Aptos Ad (09:50) FOMC Decision (13:09) Noisy Economic Data (14:14) SLR Changes (18:43) TGA Drain & Buildup (24:50) Long Bond Yields (25:28) Aptos Ad (26:21) Long Bond Yields (29:11) Powell Replacement (34:38) Fiscal Dominance (39:58) US Assets vs ROW (46:12) Dollar Losing Reserve Status? (51:17) Where to Put Your Money — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance