Alfonso Peccatiello: The Fed Put Is Back, Bull Steepener Base Case

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy”: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf Nouriel Roubini’s book discussed in the interview, “Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy”: https://www.amazon.com/Political-Cycles-Macroeconomy-Alberto-Alesina/dp/0262510944 Nouriel Roubini’s latest book, “Megathreats”: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/nouriel-roubini/megathreats/9780316284059/?lens=little-brown Follow Nouriel Roubini on Twitter https://x.com/Nouriel Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://x.com/SteveMiran Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) What Is "Activist Treasury Issuance" (ATI)? (08:00) The Mechanics Of How The U.S. Treasury Has Altered Engaged In "Activist Treasury Issuance" (20:52) VanEck Ad (24:21) Activist Treasury Issuance Played A Role In Boosting Asset Values, And In Avoiding A Recession (And Might Have Caused A "No Landing" Instead of a "Soft Landing") (29:53) History of Treasury's "Bill Share": GFC, Money Market Reform, March 2020 Panic (33:44) How Much Does Current Treasury Issuance Differ From Historical Issuance Patterns? (45:43) Permissionless Ad (46:46) Does Government Borrowing "Crowd Out" Private Investment? (59:09) Will ATI Continue In The Next Presidential Administration? (01:07:20) Long-Term Interest Rates Could Rise and Force a "Meaningful Repricing of Risk Assets" (01:10:49) It's Not Just The Fed - U.S. Treasury Has "Forward Guidance" Now Too (01:13:02) Nouriel Roubini's Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://x.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Overview of Chris' Banking Outlook (04:59) Bank of America (12:54) VanEck Ad (15:39) Charles Schwab (20:27) Credit Cards and Auto (27:21) Permissionless Ad (28:24) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (35:51) Smaller Banks Are Leading The Larger Banks (40:34) Capital Markets Activity Is Picking Back Up (44:43) Private Credit & Private Equity (47:21) Synthetic Risk Transfers (56:42) Basel III Endgame Might Be Shelved If Trump Gets Re-Elected (01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System? (01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out (01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://x.com/michaelxpettis Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Recent writings by Michael Pettis: “Which Country Should Design U.S. Industrial Policy?”: https://carnegieendowment.org/china-financial-markets/2024/07/which-country-should-design-us-industrial-policy?lang=en “Trade and the Manufacturing Share”: https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/trade-and-the-manufacturing-share/ “Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace”: https://www.amazon.com/Trade-Wars-Are-Class-International/dp/0300244177 __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) The Problem With China's Investment-Driven Growth Model (09:52) Why Increasing China's Consumption Is So Hard (17:36) China's Plan To Reignite Economic Growth In China (20:43) Why China Will Follow Similar Path To Japan In Its Economic Decline In 1990s (24:03) Impact That Trade Surplus Countries (China, Germany, etc.) Have on Trade Deficit Countries (U.S., U.K., etc.) (28:06) VanEck Ad (28:46) Interview Continues (36:59) The Fall of The "Trade Is Always Good" Consensus Among Economists (49:58) Permissionless Ad (50:57) Is China "Cheating At Trade"? (57:19) The Three Things The U.S. Can Do To Respond To Its Role As "Global Consumer Of Last Resort" (01:01:53) Why U.S. Capital Controls Are Necessary To Truly Fix The American Trade Deficit (01:06:35) Both Trump and Biden Factions Are Determined To Resolve U.S.' Trade Imbalances (01:08:36) China's Move From Real Estate To Manufacturing Is Exacerbating Its Trade Surplus With The Rest Of The World (01:14:53) Chinese Real Estate Crisis Unlikely To Imperil The Chinese Banking System, Argues Pettis (Because The Government Is In Control) (01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System? (01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out (01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Peter Boockvar on Twitter https://twitter.com/pboockvar Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Peter's Economic Worries: That Lower-End Consumers Are Already In A Recession (12:26) VanEck Ad (13:06) Interview Continues (21:12) Is The AI Narrative That's Fueling The Stock Market Rally Real? (48:07) Japan (54:36) China (01:09:19) 2024 U.S. Presidential Election (01:11:42) Is The Boom In Private Credit & Private Equity Going To End Badly? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Skift Airline Weekly https://airlineweekly.skift.com/ Jay Shabat’s Railroad Weekly https://railroadweekly.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:10) Railroads (19:50) VanEck Ad (20:30) Airlines __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Has The Bearish Narrative On China's Collapse Gone Too Far? (05:50) Collapse Of Evergrande Was NOT A "Lehman Moment," Argues Harburg (10:21) Current State of Chinese Real Estate Market (15:56) Is Economic Stimulus From The Chinese Government On Its Way? (19:28) Are Chinese Policymakers Worried About Deflation? (21:16) Western Goods Are Being "Slaughtered" By Chinese Consumption of Domestically-Produced Goods (24:35) VanEck Ad (25:29) Spending Is "Definitely Weak" As "People Are Losing Their Jobs" (26:42) Not In DNA of Chinese Government To Enact a "Major Stimulus Package" (28:59) India Is A "Mirage" Where Corruption Is Actually Higher Than In China, Argues Harburg (36:46) Delisting of DiDi Was "Justified" But The Chinese Government Often Does Not Provide Sufficient Detail On Rationale Behind Policies (41:01) The Chinese Labor Market (43:09) Permissionless Ad (44:15) The Chinese Stock Market (49:28) Chinese Electric Vehicles (54:19) Tariffs Against China: Why Chinese Leaders Would Prefer Trump Over Biden (01:00:49) Does Beijing Look Fondly Upon Bank Credit Being Directed Away From Real Estate And Into Consumer Lending? (01:06:21) Private Markets In China Are "Very Challenged" (01:12:17) China's Central Bank (The People's Bank of China) (01:14:11) Chinese Yuan __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:46) Economic False Alarms Over Past 5 Years (05:44) The False Recession Signal of 2022 (19:36) VanEck Ad (20:17) What Is The Cause Of So Much Economic Pessimism? (26:26) Are Sovereign Debt Levels A Threat To Economy? (39:56) Permissionless III Ad (40:54) AI And Labor Productivity (54:04) How To Prepare For Actual Material Economic Threats (01:00:52) What Are The False Signals Of 2024? (01:06:25) Geopolitical Risks (01:13:10) U.S. / China Tensions (01:17:22) Black Swan: Solar Flare __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Renaissance Macro on Twitter https://x.com/RenMacLLC?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow RenMac website: https://t.co/VJIDWiWMkc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) Is There An "Economic Accident" Brewing? (10:26) Why Neil Thinks The Fed Should Cut Before The Election (21:54) VanEck Ad (22:36) Odds Of A Recession (29:33) Is The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Data From Establishment Survey Overstating How Rosy U.S. Job Market Is? (48:25) Dutta Prefers Bonds Over Stocks (58:42) The Fiscal Deficit In 2025 And Beyond __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jonah van Bourg on Twitter https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x podcast on Twitter https://x.com/1000xPod Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:34) Jonah's Background At Lehman, Goldman, Vitol, and Cumberland (04:18) Jonah on Crypto: "I'm So Bullish I Can't See Straight" (06:18) Why Jonah Thinks Bitcoin Will Stay In A Range ("Proper Chop") Before Shooting Higher (09:11) Jonah: Bitcoin Is Better At Conducting Large Scale Commodity Transactions Than Most Non-Reserve Fiat Currencies (22:01) VanEck Ad (28:20) Has Saudi Arabia Moved Off The Petrodollar? (30:09) Is Mt. Gox Unlock of Bitcoin A Big Deal? (34:25) Jonah on The Real Reason Crypto Is Going Down: "Most Altcoins Are Worthless": You "Shitcoin of Choice" Is Probably Dead (45:19) The Rise of Stablecoins (48:26) The "AI" Crypto Coins (50:40) Jonah on Oil: There's A Lot Of Spare Capacity, Hard To See A Big Move Higher (58:09) The Best Trade of 2024 In Oil Has Been Selling Options (01:06:34) Why Jonah Is Bullish Distillates (01:10:15) Jonah on Oil Refineries (01:13:34) Natural Gas (01:20:25) Uranium and Gold (01:22:58) Fiat Debasement and Bitcoin __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. -- This week, David Goone CEO of tZERO joins the show for a discussion on the next big trend he is seeing within capital markets. We discuss David's time at the ICE exchange, acquisition as a growth strategy, the development of online trading, how to unlock liquidity for alternative assets & more. Enjoy! -- Follow tZERO on Twitter https://x.com/tZERO Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (08:20) The Shift From LIBOR To SOFR (16:05) VanEck Ad (16:45) Acquisition As A Growth Strategy (22:16) The Growth Of Electronic Trading (24:57) What Is tZERO? (36:43) What Is A Security? (38:47) Providing Liquidity For Venture Capital & Private Equity (48:53) Aspen Hotel Resort Offering (56:20) Building A Brand & Reputation As An Alternative Exchange -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.