Global Credit Risk through 1H24

Tariff uncertainty in the US, deflation pressures in China, and political instability in France and Germany are driving forecast changes for 2025. Join Brian Coulton and Ed Parker as they cover these and other developments detailed in Fitch's new Global Economic Outlook report.

Richard Francis, David Prowse, and Justin Patrie discuss the implications of the recent US election, including potential impacts on the US budget, sovereign credit profile, and the macroeconomic effects of new tariffs on global markets.

Erich Arispe, Head of Emerging Europe (EE) Sovereigns, and Malgorzata Krzywicka, Associate Director EE Sovereigns, discuss Central and Eastern Europe’s current state of public finances and the region’s fiscal consolidation prospects and challenges.

Christopher Wolfe, Managing Director for North America Banks, and Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, look back at US banks’ performance and rating trends in 2024 and discuss expectations for 2025, including potential post-election policy changes.

Explore the latest developments in Common Framework debt restructurings for Ethiopia, Zambia, and Ghana and the impacts of new IMF policies with Paul Gamble, Head of MEA Sovereign ratings, and Thomas Garreau, Associate Director, MEA Sovereigns.

Duncan Innes-Ker, Senior Director, Fitch Wire, and Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, explore challenges and opportunities for emerging market economies, including recent rate cuts, weaker demand in China, and post-election policy changes in the US.

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns, and Jeremy Zook, Lead Analyst for India, discuss India’s sovereign rating, and what to expect from the country’s economic policy following the election of Narendra Modi to his third term as prime minister.

Richard Francis, Richard Hunter and Justin Patrie look into the potential effects the upcoming US election could have on credit, touching on the US’ sovereign rating, the different fiscal policy plans offered by the candidates, and more.

Head of EMEA Sovereigns Jan Friederich and Head of Western European Sovereigns Federico Barriga Salazar discuss fiscal policies in the EU, including the impact of the new fiscal rules and implications for the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument.

David Prowse, Senior Director, Fitch Wire, and Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, look into our 3Q24 Risk Headquarters report, covering the ongoing impact of high interest rates, escalating geopolitical risks, real estate market challenges and more.